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Party time

David Cornock | 21:45 UK time, Thursday, 6 May 2010

Five leaders facemask

Sorry to interrupt your party but this courtesy of the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ should help it go with a swing.

The ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳/ITV/Sky exit polls suggests the Conservatives will win 307 seats, Labour 255, the Liberal Democrats 59 and others 29.

NOP and Mori interviewed 17,607 voters in 130 polling locations.

The Conservatives would fall 19 seats short of an overall majority.

The ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ analysis suggests that the poll anticipates that the Labour Party has been more successful at retaining its vote in seats in Scotland and Wales, in those with a relatively large ethnic minority population, and in places where the incumbent Labour MP is standing again.

It also anticipates that the Lib Dems will perform better in England than in either Scotland or Wales.

This though, as the politicians will tell you, is not the poll that counts. I've yet to see projected shares of the vote, which could be significant.

In 2005, the exit poll got the percentages bang on, but the seat projections were slightly out.

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