³ÉÈËÂÛ̳

Charles Hopkinson's family has lived at Bigsweir House for almost six hundred years.

His great grandfather used to put his horse on the train at the local station and catch a train up the Wye Valley for a day's hunting.

These days the station (known variously as Bigsweir, St Briavels or Llandogo Halt) is long gone, as is the hunting.

Mr Hopkinson makes a living through the farming, forestry and fishing interests of the Bigsweir Estate, interests that straddle the border.

That means dealing with Cadw on the Welsh side of the River Wye, English Heritage on the other - ditto for different parts of the Environment Agency.

He may live in England, but devolution has changed his life - he says he's noticed "a sort of wall going up between the two countries that wasn't there before".

He admits occasional frustration: "When you apply for the grant you can go through various stages and it goes to the final assessment and then you're turned down for a grant in Wales because your postal address in England".

Chepstow is closer to England than it is to Cardiff, but the local Tesco has a "Welsh-first" language policy on its signs.

Tim Melville, co-ordinator of the "Transition Chepstow" group, is an enthusiast for the Welsh assembly's law-making powers, particularly its introduction later this year of a 5 pence charge for plastic bags in shops.

Mr Melville has helped distribute 7,000 organic "bags for life" in the town as part of a drive towards sustainability.

"I think it is great that the Welsh Assembly are showing initiative and leadership in that respect," he told me. "I hope they go on to do other things, perhaps in planning."

He believes that people have begun to realise the Welsh assembly can make a difference through policies such as the charge for bags and free prescriptions.

I stopped off at St Briavels and Chepstow during a roadtrip along the border, a journey designed to assess the impact of devolution past, present and future ahead of Thursday's referendum.

Whether you see devolution as a wall or not, there's no doubt that differences between Wales and England have grown.

A lot of the focus during the referendum campaign has been on the assembly's law-making powers but one of the reasons why the two countries are diverging has been the different policies applied by UK governments, past and present, in England.

Labour under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and the current coalition under David Cameron and Nick Clegg, have all run public services rather differently from Labour and Plaid Cymru in Wales.

You too can meet Charles Hopkinson and Tim Melville and follow my journey through border country on Wales Today at 1830 this evening. The reports should also be available online.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• - What's this?

Seven days to go and the excitement is mounting. Well, perhaps not.

It is possible to drive from one end of Wales to the other, as I have just done, and not see a single poster linked to next Thursday's referendum on the Welsh assembly's powers.

All sides predict a low turnout. Who is to blame? The yes camp have blamed the no camp for failing to register as an official campaign, thereby depriving the people of Wales of broadcasts and publicly-funded literature.

Yes for Wales have also criticised the media for an alleged failure to cover the campaign.
The last Welsh referendum campaign, held in those pre-electoral commission days with very limited public funding, was not that exciting although the issue at stake did engage debate more easily.

Moving from part 3 to part 4 of the Government of Wales Act was always going to be a challenge for those trying to engage audiences, although the winning side will doubtless claim the vote as "historic".

First Minister Carwyn Jones admits that turnout is a concern but points out that the London mayor and assembly were established on a turnout of 34.1 per cent. (turnout in Wales in 1997 was 50.1 per cent)

Despite that difference in turnout it is the mayor of London who features on the cover of this month's magazine. Turn to page 34 and you will find an interview with the Welsh First Minister, judged by the magazine to be "a lucky man".

His choice of guiding motto may be less fortunate. The magazine reports: "His motivation for his style of politics, he says, is the motto of his hometown: "A fo ben, bid bont" (He who would be a leader, let him be a bridge.)

Curiously, the last Welsh leader to use that phrase in the run-up to assembly elections was the Anglesey-born Alun Michael, whose time as the assembly's first leader between 1999 and 2000 was not universally regarded in Welsh Labour circles as a happy one.

The phrase is originally attributed to Bendigeidfran from the Mabinogion, who met something of an unfortunate end.

Total Politics describes a "yes" vote as "all but inevitable", although the word from many politicians is that the result could be closer than opinion polls suggest, even if "yes" supporters are thought more likely to vote on the day.

There is a lot at stake for Carwyn Jones next week - and for the other party leaders in Wales, who all support a "yes" vote. With the political establishment lined up behind Yes for Wales, what could possibly go wrong?

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• - What's this?

If, like me, you have already highlighted May 7, 2015 in your five-year diary as the date of the next elections to the Welsh assembly you make have to think again.

Deputy prime minister Nick Clegg announced today that he wants to offer the assembly the power to delay (or bring forward) the election by up to a year, if two thirds of AMs agree. Currently, the date can only be varied by one month.

The roots of the announcement lie in the furore when the UK Government announced that the next general election would be held on May 7, 2015, the same day that Wales goes to the polls.

Today, Nick Clegg told me: "When we announced at the beginning of the coalition government that we would hold the next general election, the UK-wide general election, in 2015 there was quite understandably a lot of concern expressed in the Welsh Assembly that that would fall on the same day as the election for the next Welsh elections.

"So we've been having a debate, listening to what the party leaders of all parties in Wales have been saying. We've now said it should be for the Welsh Assembly and the Welsh Assembly alone to decide the date of the next election, either a year before that 2015 date or a year later, in other words deferring the election until 2016 so there's no clash at all."

David Cameron's "respect agenda" towards the devolved institutions has not always run smoothly, but Mr Clegg said of today's announcement: "I hope that will be welcome to people in Wales and to all political parties. It's very much intended as a sign of our respect for the separate political identity which of course is so strong in the Welsh Assembly."

You will have done the maths and noticed that if the Assembly elections are deferred by a year then on current terms there would be another election clash in 2020.

Nick Clegg: "That's why the longer term thing we need to look at is whether we think there's a case and whether the public think there's a case to move permanently if you like to a new five year term for the Welsh Assembly, something which I think is almost universally demanded by all the political parties in Wales.

"That isn't something we think we need to resolve overnight, let's take it step by step. We will start a public consultation process to look at the case for that."

So AMs elected in May should perhaps prepare for a five-year stretch, a term that could become the norm in Cardiff Bay before the decade is out.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

Your starter for 10. Which member of the current UK government said this, in December 2009?

"I see Wales at the forefront of everything we do, not isolated, not a poor relation. I want to ensure that in every department of state there is a minister responsible for Wales to look at each and every policy in a Welsh context so that Wales gets the most from any policy."

There are no prizes, which is probably just as well as you all guessed it was , the current Secretary of State for Wales.

Nine months into government and the only department outside the Wales Office where there is a "minister responsible for Wales" is James Paice, the Agriculture Minister.

A dominated by coalition MPs concluded that Mrs Gillan was "marginalised" during Home Office discussions over the future of Wales's only passport office.

It's not as if the Immigration Minister doesn't have some Welsh knowledge - Damian Green was born in Barry and his father was managing director of what was then Wales' dominant newspaper group.

Labour MP Owen Smith now believes he has found another example of Welsh interests being ignored in Whitehall. He says the department of health refused to consult the Welsh assembly government over an extension to the compensation scheme for victims of the contaminated blood scandal.

He argues that this is all the more puzzling as the minister who conducted the review on the department's policy on the subject, Anne Milton, also happens to be the minister responsible for relations with devolved administrations.

Mrs Gillan told Mr Smith she has been re-assured by the department that it did consult officials in Cardiff.

Now the Wales Office faces the challenge of defending the administrative headquarters of the army in Wales, the future of which was revealed by the Rhondda Labour MP Chris Bryant to be .

Defence Secretary Liam Fox told him: "There are ongoing discussions as he knows inside the armed forces at the present time, but as he's heard me say on a number of occasions, I'm very keen that we have United Kingdom Armed Forces and that we maintain the footprint as widely across the United Kingdom as we can."

No news yet on who is the Welsh minister inside the Ministry of Defence. Apparently, the policy of a Welsh minister in every department is still a runner.

It's said to be such a good idea Nick Clegg has decided to apply it to all the devolved areas and to announce the policy himself but, to the frustration of Cheryl Gillan, in his own time.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• - What's this?

Perhaps they just got out of the wrong side of the bed on the day the questionnaire arrived. But one third of Wales Office staff want to leave the department within the next year.

The Wales Office, which represents Wales in the UK Government, employs fewer than 60 staff, most of them in Whitehall.

According to its latest staff eight per cent want to leave their jobs "as soon as possible", with another 24 per cent wanting to go within the next 12 months.

The Wales Office says the figures are comparable to other departments, where civil servants often seek to leave as a way of securing promotion within their profession.

The survey suggests most of the Wales Office's civil servants do enjoy their work, although a substantial proportion (42 per cent) say they don't understand where the Wales Office fits in to the Ministry of Justice, its parent department.

There is some unhappiness on (largely frozen) pay and perks but according to the Wales Office Minister they do earn their cash.

Here's one of his recent tweets: "2½ hrs on train and 5 in car today. Home now; officials still travelling. Never say civil servants don't work hard. They're brilliant."

Should they subscribe to his twitter feed, the Wales Office civil servants can also enjoy updates on engineering work on the west coast main line, and (almost) his every move: ("Sitting in a lengthy car wash queue. Every car caked in salt.")

There is news of Liverpool FC ("1-1 against Wigan; not good") and the weather ("a wonderful, sunny day in Whitehall. Intimations of spring...").

Computer geeks are not ignored - ("Interestingly, download speed's down to 28 Mbps tonight but upload is a stonking 23") and there is no shortage of interesting facts ("Just realised today is a palindromic date: 11 02 2011").

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

Some former Ministers struggle to adjust to life in opposition. Not Paul Murphy; the former secretary of state for Wales and Northern Ireland is currently re-inventing himself as a non-partisan elder statesman fighting the Welsh corner at Westminster.

Last week he joined forces with Plaid Cymru to try to save the annual St David's Day debate here. This week he has intervened in the referendum on the Welsh assembly's powers.

I usually hesitate to write about the referendum - not through any "quasi-judicial" role, but because it is so well - and extensively - covered elsewhere.

But Mr Murphy's comments in today's set out what he thinks should be the rules of engagement and will be seen as a warning shot across the bows of both the "yes" and "no" campaigns.

"I hope that the debate takes a civil, respectful and rational tone," he writes. "People outside of the "bubble" are genuinely confused about the vote and are eager to hear more about the decision that faces them.

"What they want is to be informed of the arguments, not harangued and shouted at by either side. After all, referendums are about convincing those who are unsure, not insulting those who do not instinctively and immediately agree with you.

"I hope both sides will accept that it is possible to conduct a debate without calling each other "anti-Welsh", indulging in personal attacks or unwisely adopting the language of the right. Remember, this is not civil rights or apartheid.

"There are decent people who care deeply about the future of Wales on both sides of the debate - they just happen to disagree on this occasion."

Given that both sides have been advancing their arguments for some time, we can assume Mr Murphy's comments are not entirely influenced by hypothetical arguments.

There is advice on how to get the message across to voters: "Talking about the detail of LCOs persuades no-one. Remember, people don't want to know how the result will affect civil servants, lobbyists and politicians.

"They want to know how it will affect their lives, their family, their job, their community and their public services. And quite right too."

Mr Murphy, who voted "no" in the 1979 referendum and, as secretary of state, defended the 1999 version of devolution as a "settlement", says he'll be voting "yes" on March 3 as a way of protecting Wales from a Conservative-led government.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

Intelligence gathering has always been more of an art than a science, with the attendant risk of gossip and hearsay being viewed as fact and presented to the world through what are today known as dodgy dossiers.

In the wake of countless revelations from wikileaks you do wonder just how well-informed are the diplomats whose cables were sent back to Washington.

The latestsuggest US embassy staff in London were rather less than on-the-ball when it came to predicting the future of Welsh politics.

Peter Hain for Welsh first minister? He may have played an important role in creating the job but it was hardly the summit of his political ambition. Eluned Morgan's "experience of government" may be news to some.

The author of the cable implies that some of the information came from the Aberavon Labour MP Hywel Francis, then chair of Parliament's select committee on Welsh affairs.

Curiously, some of the suggestions made in the cable are remarkably similar to those made in a story in the same day's .

But the idea that the most powerful country in the world bases its political intelligence on anonymously-source speculation in a regional newspaper is too far-fetched to be true. Or is it?

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• - What's this?

Welsh Questions in the House of Commons is the monthly opportunity for English Tory MPs to make supportive enquiries of Cheryl Gillan and her deputy David Jones.

No fewer than five of the first nine questions (chosen by ballot) for today's half-hour session were tabled by Conservative MPs from east of Offa's Dyke.

Tories from Burton, Stroud, Harlow, Chester and Chelsea and Fulham queued up to discuss Welsh issues. (Cheryl Gillan jargonwatch: "Barnettised consequentials 1, quadrialterals 0").

The debate had a familiar air. Labour and Plaid Cymru wanted to know why the UK Government has yet to agree to electrify the First Great Western rail line between London and Swansea. The Government pointed out that Labour failed to electrify the line during its 13 years in government.

Peter Hain dug out an invitation to a Conservative fund-raiser in Chesham and Amersham on April 1, where the guests include both Cheryl Gillan and David Jones.

The invite, since passed to me, offers: "Coffee from 10.00 am followed by AGM at 10.30 am Speakers from 11.00 am with Ploughman's Lunch at 12.30 pm followed by Raffle."

There will also be a speaker from the "No to AV" campaign - there are some referendums even the Wales Office team get involved in.

Cheryl Gillan told Peter Hain that a letter she'd received from his wife made more sense.

Plaid Cymru's Elfyn Llwyd later had a chance to question the Prime Minister. He put forward an idea for tackling the issue of bankers' bonsues - that bankers who trousered large bonuses should not receive honours in future.

David Cameron was not unsympathetic but made the Elfynometer blush by congratulating Mr Llwyd on his own recent honour - membership of that mainstay of the British constitution, the .

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• - What's this?

The annual House of Commons debate on Welsh affairs - a Westminster institution for more than half a century - looks more uncertain today.

Yesterday I reported how a change in parliamentary procedure meant its fate would be decided by the backbench business committee.

Plaid Cymru parliamentary leader Elfyn Llwyd and former Welsh secretary Paul Murphy asked the committee to schedule a Welsh debate in March.

Today the committee has responded: "As the Committee mentioned during the session, we do not yet have any firm dates for future backbench days. The Committee has therefore deferred making a decision on scheduling business for the next backbench day until it has a clearer idea of the days which will be made available.

"We will keep your application on record until that time and, unless there is anything further you wish to add, you do not need to appear before the Committee again."

Frustration then for Messrs Murphy and Llwyd, amid fears that the annual debate could be downgraded to Westminster Hall, the Commons' second chamber.

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Reddit
• - What's this?

St David's Day may still be a month away but MPs are getting agitated that MPs may not get the chance to stage their annual debate on Welsh affairs, possibly for the first time since the tradition began in 1944*.

The Welsh day debate, usually held on or around St David's Day (March1), could be a casualty of reforms that allow backbench MPs, not the government, to dictate the parliamentary agenda.

Unlike previous years, there is no Welsh debate scheduled in government time, so it will be left to the unusual alliance of former Welsh secretary Paul Murphy, and Plaid Cymru parliamentary leader Elfyn Llwyd to plead the case for a debate before the backbench business committee, which now decides such things.

Current Welsh secretary Cheryl Gillan has lent her support for a general debate, but the business committee apparently requires something rather more specific as a topic for debate.

So Messrs Llwyd and Murphy have come up with: "This House recognises the disproportionate impact on Welsh representation of the Parliamentary Voting Systems and Constituencies Bill and acknowledges the particular importance of history, geography and community ties in the traditional formation of Welsh parliamentary constituencies."

The said Bill is likely to cut the number of MPs from Wales by a quarter. Wales will be disproportionately hit because we currently have fewer voters per constituency on average than in the rest of Britain.

The annual debate has been criticised in the past as tokenistic and redundant when the Welsh assembly debates Welsh affairs every week, but MPs would certainly mourn its passing.

A decision on whether the tradition survives into 2011 should emerge around lunchtime.

*I'm told that a debate has been held each year since 1944 but have been unable to verify that independently. Does anyone out there have a longer memory?

• Bookmark with:
• del.icio.us |
• Digg |
• Reddit
• - What's this?