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BOTTLER BROWN!

So we were all wrong! I, at least, added the caveat that it would ultimately depend on the opinion polls; and that is exactly what happened.

But, despite the views of the pundits, the change was not due to a storming performance by Cameron, he was good but not prime-ministerial, or to Osborne鈥檚 鈥榤illionaires鈥� inheritance tax鈥�. In fact the latter was potentially an own goal - in terms of the vague funding for it but especially in terms of a return to being the party of the rich, and image which has long bedeviled the Tories 鈥� as Brown鈥檚 considered answers now show.

What I had not expected was that Gordon Brown would get his strategy so wrong, going for political overkill when he already had the election in his grasp. As I hinted, in my earlier entry to this blog, Brown鈥檚 new found popularity had resulted from him hiding his true nature. The new, reformed, Brown was a 鈥榞ood guy鈥�. The electorate liked what they saw; and forgot the old Brown who had spent so many months destabilizing his predecessor鈥檚 government. In that earlier blog I wondered just how long, after winning the election, it would be before the old Brown rose from the grave.

Of course the answer was that the zombie just couldn鈥檛 wait. He rose from the dead, far too early, after the very successful Labour conference; where Brown had acted out his new persona perfectly 鈥� no knockabout at all, just seriously running the country.

Then, far too early, came his trickery. He just couldn鈥檛 resist putting the knife into the Tories, but it rebounded with a vengeance:

1. Election Rumours: Using his old techniques, so effective in destabilizing Blair, his carefully distanced henchmen 鈥� seemingly led as always by Ed Ball 鈥� started the rumours about the snap election. Designed, no doubt, to unnerve Cameron they failed and he held his nerve in a bravura (if hollow) performance. More important they forced the Tories to band together, to fight the upcoming election. All the back-stabbing which was due to happen was overtaken by self-preservation; and a a result the Tories were able to claim a good conference (where any lack of backstabbing is now seen as a success).
2. Visitation in Iraq: It must have been seen, by Brown and his advisers, that this visit 鈥� and the accompanying announcement 鈥� would derail coverage of the Tories鈥� conference. Of course it did, but for all the wrong reasons. It was correctly seen as the worst sort of spin, not helped by dressing up existing troop withdrawals as new ones. It was an unnecessary failure of judgment; for he had no need to go there, and his announcement should have been made 鈥� as he had promised 鈥� to parliament. Worse still he was seen as guilty of using our brave lads out there for political purposes.
3. Taking His Eye Off The Ball: A less obvious consequence was that, so busy spinning their Iraq story, his strategists failed to see 鈥� let alone answer 鈥� George Osborne鈥檚 inheritance tax goal. Tony Blair set up his war-room to handle such 鈥榚mergencies鈥�, but where has that gone under Brown? In fact this goal needn鈥檛 have been a game winner. There were obvious problems, open to a well thought out answer, not least with the very vague funding of this obvious give-away. Above all, though, it should have been presented by Labour as the Tories returning to be the party of the rich. Blair would have had them pinned to the ropes within a matter of hours. But Brown鈥檚 Labour 鈥� almost mesmerized by their own cleverness - carried on with its spin of the Iraq trip; and allowed the Tories to win the argument by default.
4. Digging An Ever Deeper Hole: Not recognizing even then what was happening, the Labour spin doctors clearly put its projected election victory above the national good 鈥� by bringing forward a whole range of what it thought would be election winning events. And, behind the scenes but in front of the media, it boasted about how clever it was. Of course Brown was always out of sight; but, by then, we all knew (not least from the way Blair was stabbed in the back) that he always used his henchmen to do his dirty work. The scene was set for everyone to recognize who the real Brown still was: the devious, scheming, self-centred 鈥榥asty鈥� 鈥� who was totally untrustworthy.
5. Bottler: Then he bottled out, losing the last positive element of his image. He was no longer a strong, decisive decision-maker.
6. Spinning the Bottle: Compounding his mistakes, he then chose to 鈥榗ancel the election鈥� in the favourable environment of a hastily arranged interview with Andrew Marr. When that too backfired, he scrambled to arrange another press conference; at which, however he claimed that he had always wanted to continue and put forward his policies; the result of the opinion polls were not in any way decisive. He carefully distanced himself from the spinning of his henchmen.

As a historical precedent, Henry II eventually did attend Thomas Becket鈥檚 shrine in sackcloth and ashes to accept that his request to his own henchmen, 鈥渨ill nobody rid me of this turbulent priest鈥�, made him equally guilty. Brown, however, genuinely seems to think that his similar communications with 鈥� mixing metaphors 鈥� his own opprichniki absolves him from any association with the seamier side of politics.

His tragedy is that, while two weeks ago Brown was heading for a famous victory, by letting his true self overtake his political judgment he is now a loser due to follow James Calaghan, who was at least a genuinely nice guy, into Labour鈥檚 hall of infamy. He has two or more years to recover, and David Cameron is an ideal light-weight opponent, but will anyone ever trust him; let alone like him!

Brown will no doubt hang on by his fingertips, lurching from one crisis of confidence to the next; much as those he subjected Blair to. Of course he won鈥檛 give up power. He has already spent a decade and a half selling his soul to be PM, and nobody in New Labour will dare challenge him. Come back Tony, all is forgiven!

Similarly Cameron, saved this time by the incompetence of Brown, will stagger from one crisis to the next, fending off the challenge of George Osborne; who is increasingly seen as the champion of Labour鈥檚 defeat. But, not knowing when the election will be due (Brown鈥檚 one remaining trump card), the Tories will not be able to shake off his boyish charm, but fatal lack of strategic decision-making.

The Liberals are possibly the ones with the best chance of a recovery. I have long admired Ming, having respected (and almost hero worshipped) his judgment on each of the occasions I have had any extended time with him, but he now needs to pass the baton on to the new youngsters who have emerged untainted by the party鈥檚 past. He has, very successfully, pulled the party together and, more important, given it a coherent set of potentially election-winning policies. Now he needs a young turk who can take forward the battle cry of destroying the cosy Labour/Conservative consensus. I, for one, hope he succeeds in this. We electors need a real choice, not spin, in the government we hope for.