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Wednesday, 7 November, 2007

  • Newsnight
  • 7 Nov 07, 06:13 PM

Oil

oilrig203x100.jpgThe White House warned today that oil prices are "too high" as US crude hit $98-per-barrel. So are high oil prices all bad? With prices expected to breach $100 shortly and petrol at UK pumps now more than £1-per-litre, tonight we ask how the rising price of crude is affecting the geo-political balance of power. The International Energy Agency says world demand for oil will grow from 84 million to 116 million barrels per day. So how do we secure future supplies and from where?

Sir Ronald Cohen

We have an exclusive interview with Sir Ronald Cohen. A Labour donor and a close friend of Gordon Brown, he's the multi-millionaire city businessman who founded Britain's first private equity company, Apax. Earlier this year he warned that the growing wealth gap between rich and poor could spark riots on the streets of London. Now he has a book out about how to be a successful entrepreneur. We'll be speaking to him about his book, his relations with the prime minister, taxation, the ethics of private equity and more.

Terror

MPs are debating plans to extend the current laws on how long terror suspects can be held and questioned without charge. The government wants to increase the to 56 days but opposition parties say they aren't yet convinced this is necessary. Meanwhile pressure is building on the Metropolitan Police to resign over the shooting of Jean Charles de Menezes. Richard Watson will have the latest developments.

Welfare Reform

Is Britain failing some of the poorest and neediest members of society by creating a culture of dependency through the benefits system? This is a view which is gaining currency in political circles here and the model which has swayed them is Wisconsin. David Grossman has been to the state to assess the success of Governor Tommy Thompson's Welfare Reform model and look at why it has provoked such interest in the US and here.

Gangs

Film director Ridley Scott talks to us about violence and gun crime here and in the States. His new film American Gangster opens here next week.

And don't forget our immigration special - click here to join the debate.

Comments  Post your comment

  • 1.
  • At 07:01 PM on 07 Nov 2007,
  • John Rogers wrote:

Hello

Outlaw' US Insurance multinational driving U.K Government welfare

Its no surprise US ideas on welfare are becoming influential in Uk political circles on Tuesday 6th November, your sister programme: the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳TV Ten O'Clock news broadcast a report about the massive US multinational UnumProvident and how it is driving UK welfare reform policy

Fronted by the 'Secret Policeman'
investigative journalist, Mark Daly: the report uncovered documents
from Unum in the UK boasting that they were and are influencing
Government policy. Policies influenced included the assessment of
ability to work, the ending of G.P's sicknotes and the Welfare Reform
Act. The insurance giant has been described in the US as a ''an
outlaw company ... that for years has operated in an illegal fashion.'
and been accused of racketeering and cheating tens of thousands of
insured Americans out of their claims

With the Welfare Reform Act now law, the gloves are certainly off: in
a recent Press Association report , Works and Pension Secretary Peter
Hain has said claimants will be put through a 'rigorous medical
assessment' to see if they could be in a job under new plans. Hain
says that he believed the "majority" of people on benefits could work if they are given the right support and
is promising to "rip up sick note Britain" by scrapping Incapacity
Benefit and replacing it with a new Employment and Support Allowance
[4].

I would argue that we are witnessing with the Welfare Reform Act, the Freud Review, the Green Paper on welfare and the Duncan Smith report is that all political parties are now moving to advocate a US-style, maximum surveillance, minimal and privatised welfare system where the
individual is blamed for their incapacity.

It remains to be seen just how much influence the US insurance multinationals will have
had on these draconian policies and what they will get out of it. However, now now with the Newsnight story about the dreadful Winconsin model (who is doing the lobbying here?) these are very urgent stories which have implications not only for millions of claimants, etc but also for democracy.

Oil, the Junkie's greatest anxiety:

From Ivan Illich, more than thirty years ago:

"What is generally overlooked is that equity and energy can grow concurrently only to a point. Below a threshold of per capita wattage, motors improve the conditions for social progress. Above this threshold, energy grows at the expense of equity. Further energy affluence then means decreased distribution of control over that energy.

"The widespread belief that clean and abundant energy is the panacea for social ills is due to a political fallacy, according to which equity and energy consumption can be indefinitely correlated, at least under some ideal political conditions. Laboring under this illusion, we tend to discount any social limit on the growth of energy consumption. But if ecologists are right to assert that nonmetabolic power pollutes, it is in fact just as inevitable that, beyond a certain threshold, mechanical power corrupts. "

And, from an Edinburgh University intro to some Illich essays:

"A junkie without access to his stash is in a state of crisis. The ``energy crisis'' that exists intermittently when the flow of fuel from unstable countries is cut off or threatened, is a crisis in the same sense. When such a crisis is perceived in the western sphere, there are normally two solutions proposed: Relieve our dependence on foreign fuels by developing ``ecologically friendly'' energy extraction technology, or send an army to pacify the fuel-rich region in question. Both of these paths, seemingly at odds with each other, take as fundamentally true a certain proposition, that in no circumstances should we use less energy than we already use. In this conception, all human problems must be solved by the impressment of still more ``energy slaves'' to meet the expanding demand of human masters. The two solutions consist of securing the current source of the drug, or finding a different, more secure pusher."

Food for thought?

Salaam/Shalom/Shanthi/Dorood/Peace
Namaste -ed

ed

  • 3.
  • At 08:05 PM on 07 Nov 2007,
  • Fiddling the Figures wrote:

Here is a suggestion that tonight, in your feature on the oil price, you explain this:-

Oil is priced in dollars but the dollar has gone down considerably against other currencies including the pound and the euro over the last several months or so.

So why don't we Britons and Europeans who use pounds and euros see cheaper oil as a result?

Fiddling the figures (3),

Pity Saddam didn't succeed in getting oil priced in Euros, then, eh? It turned out to be a capital crime to attempt it.

Any news on the Iranian intent to establish a Euro-denominated market? Aeems to be a sort of will-o-the-wisp.

Dorood

ed

Anyone who uses the phrase "easy as taking candy from a baby" has never tried taking candy from a baby.
-- Robin Hood

  • 5.
  • At 10:16 PM on 07 Nov 2007,
  • Andy wrote:

Instead of just looking at the price of oil how about looking at how oil is traded - the USD, OPEC, etc.

For starters, the US has lost a third of its value relative to a basket of other major currencies since the beginning of 2002:

Oil producing countries are gradually switching from trading in USD to EUR - Saddam did it and Iran and others are doing it.

This will be economically devastating for the US, since a strong dollar is the only safety net for its huge debts (upto $60 trillion with the current spending commitments). It's also notable that countries like China hold massive USD reserves and could deliberately devalue the USD if it so wished.

  • 6.
  • At 10:31 PM on 07 Nov 2007,
  • kevin wrote:

Newsnight, please do cover the Ron Paul Phenomenon in the US presidential race.

He raised 4.3 million online on 5th November alone - mostly from indivuals online.

His message of Freedom, Peace and Prosperity is gaining ground across the world.

It is indeed the Ron Paul Revolution!

  • 7.
  • At 10:59 PM on 07 Nov 2007,
  • Martin wrote:

What a load of rubbish pumped out by the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳.

Something like 80% of the price of a litre of petrol is TAX. TAX from Gordon Brown.

So come on ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ tell the truth. The real price of a litre of petrol is about 21 pence.

WE are being hosed by this corrupt bunch of fat socialists.

Andy (5),

"It's also notable that countries like China hold massive USD reserves and could deliberately devalue the USD if it so wished."

If you held a lot of dollars, why in the world would you want to devalue them?

China holds huge amounts of American debt, and it serves US interests to devalue the dollar and pay these debts off (or re-finance) using devalued paper. In fact, a falling dollar is America's best "safety net" - until the entire debt house-of-cards collapses, as it inevitably will.

"Though I can see no way to defend the economy, I recogniize the need to be concerned for the suffering that would be produced by its failure. But I ask if it is necessary for it to fail in order to change: I am assuming that if it does not change it must sooner or later fail, and that a great deal that is more valuable will fail with it. As a deity the economy is a sort of egotistical French monarch, for it apparently can see no alternative to itself except chaos, and perhaps that is its chief weakness. For, of course, chaos is not the only alternative to it. A better alternative is a better economy. But we will not conceive the possibility of a better economy, and therefore will not begin to change, until we quit deifying the present one."
-- Wendell Berry in "A Continuous Harmony"

xx
ed

Evil is that which one believes of others. It is a sin to believe evil of others, but it is seldom a mistake.
-- H.L. Mencken

  • 9.
  • At 11:04 PM on 07 Nov 2007,
  • Ian Smith wrote:

What a poor report on oil that was. A whole filmed report that attempted to avoid mentioning the term "Peak Oil" despite the reality that its only from that standpoint that events can be understood. If it hadn't been for the interviewee we would have passed by on a wave of 'the market will fix it' or 'green is good'.

How long do we have to wait for a report that goes through WHY the numbers don't add up and why people think the peak is now? Isn't that what journalists are supposed to do, digging out the reality rather than parroting the talking points of governments?

  • 10.
  • At 11:20 PM on 07 Nov 2007,
  • Otiwa wrote:

Wow..did anyone else notice how the Newsnight welfare piece panned out? It seems that in the great state of Wisconsin every welfare recipient is BLACK, and everyone trying to help get them off welfare is WHITE.

All the black people in this piece were poor, unemployed, and seeking state handouts, walking the streets jobless, herding hundreds of children nowhere.

Meanwhile the white people were all trying to help, had solutions, volunteered, and looked happy and fulfilled.

man, I taught this kind of caricature belonged in the last century, thanks for setting me straight Newsnight team. (all white i bet). Can't wait to watch your 'immigration debate' tomorrow.

  • 11.
  • At 11:29 PM on 07 Nov 2007,
  • Ron Clementson wrote:

The "interview" with Sir Ronald Cohen - I must complain in the strongest possible manner. This was a gross waste of valuable news night time. The item seemed to have nothing to do with anything that relates to news. If the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ sees shameless self-promotion by multi-millionaires of their latest boring diatribes as part of its brief, then move it to afternoon TV. Oh, and try to get a multi-millionaire with at least some semblance of a personality. I hope JEZZA gave the bright sparks who thought of this item a real roasting - I have'nt seen him look so embarrassed for years.

  • 12.
  • At 12:07 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • Benedict Davey wrote:

Poverty days can make all the difference in anyone's life..

...parliamentarian ethicists want to maximise the economic difference and reapings from the suffering of others...they wanted your tax...they wanted you drugged ...they want you to die younger and get less than they did...

Everyone wants to create opportunity for themselves and improve..but parliamentarians think most people do not deserve the products of their own initiative and improvement...

We should arrest parliamentarian networks.. they have organised deliberate crime against every tax payer

We look forward to a restored world of progressive investment where all can contribute as they want to ...


BCD TLC

  • 13.
  • At 12:11 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • edith crowther wrote:

Having watched the item on Welfare Reform, I am quite distressed and was pleased to find a pre-programme comment from John Rogers alerting us to an item about Unum on yesterday's main ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳1 News (which I missed). I am off to look up Unum but before I do so I would like to make a separate point, which I have made before on Newsnight's blog when you reported on the "slave labour" conditions of migrant workers.

Low-paid work in this country, on or even above the minimum wage, does not pay a LIVING wage due to the cost of living in this country. The USA is totally different - as we know, property is very cheap (and plummeting), and I believe food, petrol, utilities, clothing, etc. are all much cheaper than they are over here, hence all those shopping trips to New York which must be a relatively expensive part of the USA.

The minimum wage here gives you £12,000-£13,000 before tax. A great many people stay at that for years, and they can stay at £15,000-£20,000 for decades, for ever in fact. Channel 4 just showed loads of young people, on less than £20,000, being refused access to cheap housing because they didn't earn enough, in this week's Dispatches.

You actually need to stay on benefit to get a roof over your head at £13,000. Possibly even at £15,000 or more. Why? Dear Newsnight, because accommodation (rented of course, you could never ever buy) would cost all of your income and more. You could share with a friend, or a girlfriend, but it wouldn't be large enough for more than that. No children of course. And guess what? That is why migrant workers sleep in caravans, sleep 10 to a room, sleep at the factory as we have just heard in relation to the vegetable packing plant fire. They do it for a while, then trot off home, where they will be relatively rich. Why does everyone expect young British men and women to do that all their lives (though poor women are more likely to become prostitutes)? No wonder they are all killing themselves with drink or heroin. And they live in ugly native reservations which they will never escape from unless they go into crime and gambling like the Native Americans. Even if the town is quite pretty - e.g. Gloucester, or Northampton - it is effectively a reservation or a Bantustan (i.e. for NATIVES) with pockets of tourism and some grand houses full of Londoners.

Why didn't you briefly state how much the jobs getting people off benefit in the USA pay, how much housing and food costs relative to that, etc. You did show someone who had worked for TWO YEARS ONLY, owning a very pretty whiteboarded house with a garden, quite large. That could never ever happen here. So I suppose you did redeem yourselves briefly, since pictures are indeed worth a thousand words.

  • 14.
  • At 02:39 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • wrote:

Superb Jeremy (35/10)Well I really enjoyed the interview on oil with Irwin Stelzer, Jonathon Porrit & Jeremy Leggit, as well as Jonathon Cohen & Sir Ronald Cohen!

  • 15.
  • At 02:59 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • wrote:

Crother, as a Brit who lives in the US, I can not even begin to explain how wrong you are. Whatever your feelings on the viability of the UK minimum wage the situation in the US is awful. In the US the minimum wage is $5.55 an hour which works out to around 2.80 Pounds. This is simply not enough to sustain a decent standard of living and it is no small problem.

Business Week Magazine estimates that 24% of the US workforce earn below poverty level wages. The cost of living is on the other hand by no means half of what it is in the UK.

Yes perhaps some consumer goods are cheaper, but you are forgetting the one huge expense that is covered by the government in Britain. Health care. This adds substantially to the benefits that poorer workers in the UK receive. In the US on the other hand many people can not afford health insurance, or the health insurance that they do have is not adequate. Currently around 40 million people in the US do not have health insurance, 9 million of them children!

Furthermore, Most working poor do not live in pleasant white houses. They live in places like South East Washington DC where the murder rate is 29 per 100,000 (in comparison the rate for the UK is 2.) 1/3 of DC residents are functionally illiterate and the HIV infection rate rivals Tanzania and Mozambique

Yes you are right the US welfare system is not suitable for the UK, but that is because it is not even suitable for the US. I think it was a minor crime that the program could not show the way in which the US welfare system has failed to counter the utter deprivation of much of American society

  • 16.
  • At 03:10 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • George Turner wrote:

Is no one else shocked that someone who clearly does not pay taxes, (if he did, why wouldn't he say so) talks about people giving back, when he cant even contribute his share to the health service and the education system that he benefited from as a poor child growing up in Britain?

And how on earth is it democratic for someone who doesnt pay taxes to be allowed to contribute 2 million pounds to a political party?

  • 17.
  • At 03:15 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • Mahmud Ibrahim wrote:

Edith (12),

You make a lot of sense mate - than this Zionist inspired media!

Why does Newsnight's so-called 'experts' from the US always have to be neoconservatives or neocon-leaning 'mad dogs' like Richard Bolton?

Where are (or why ain't) respected academics from Harvard, UCL and other top US universities not featured in these programmes?

  • 18.
  • At 04:21 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • Mahmud Ibrahim wrote:


sorry, I meant the former US Ambassador to the UN, John Robert Bolton!

oops.. Edith Crowther has since been moved to 13 above!

  • 19.
  • At 06:35 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • wappaho wrote:

i agree with what is written in other posts

zionist controlled media

shocked that someone who clearly does not pay taxes, (if he did, why wouldn't he say so) talks about people giving back, when he cant even contribute his share to the health service and the education system that he benefited from as a poor child growing up in Britain?

Oh, and try to get a multi-millionaire with at least some semblance of a personality.

everything edith crowther said

everything john rogers said.

It seems that in the great state of Wisconsin every welfare recipient is BLACK, and everyone trying to help get them off welfare is WHITE.

If it hadn't been for the interviewee we would have passed by on a wave of 'the market will fix it' or 'green is good'.

**

all very illuminating. it's an unstoppable money-go-round

either you spend all day thinking up ways to make money or you spend all day thinking of ways to feed your offspring or you sit in the middle comfort zone of the professional salary and spend all day criticising everyone else.

  • 20.
  • At 08:51 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • Brian Kelly wrote:

The Editor. Without Prejudice

Today a National Newspaper says a Newsnight Presenter is pro labour & raises questions over her suitability as an impartial presenter ? This has been a speculation for many years, now however, this article is absolute in its charges. It is essential that the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳( & especially it's flagship 'Newsnight'prog') should be apolitical.

  • 21.
  • At 10:25 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • Harriet Hamster Hampstead wrote:

Kirsty live from New York Friday night for "Newsnight "review

So the cut backs are kicking in early.

Cannot wait to see who are her chosen panel of reviewers will be...

  • 22.
  • At 10:44 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • John Rogers wrote:

Having watched the package on the Winconsin model of welfare, it seemed to be a nightmarish and barbarous system that if ‘imported’ here would cause misery for millions of claimants: particularly disabled claimants whose entry to the workplace is often difficult.

It is clearly based on Victorian values and blaming the victim, it was revealing that someone has to feed those who won’t get benefits and while there some progressive groups feeding the poor, of course it’s the Christian right with their disgusting notion of the deserving poor who were on hand to give a sermon about self help along with the some groceries. It should also be observer that most of the welfare recipients were black (I wonder how many former recipients are now in the US prison system?) its easy to stereotype people as feckless, etc when they already have hundreds of years of stigma and prejudice to deal with. Perhaps, one word could sum up the US welfare system: Katrina

It’s also interesting that while the neo-liberal economy is being challenged in so many areas, in welfare it seems to be in the ascendancy. Welfare systems that were fought for by generations of trade unionists and activists such as the National Unemployed Workers Movement (NUWM) in the 1930’s etc, are being dismantled in front of our very eyes and progressives, todays’ unions etc ssem to be doing nothing. Indeed, Brendan Barber, president of the T.U.C has broadly supported the UK welfare reforms. Act.

Imo, Life without benfits will lead to a dystopian future, some people of course will ‘triump’ and make some sort of a life, but there is no doubt crime would rise and maybe social unrest. Though many would blame themselves and sink into even deeper poverty. Further , while benefits are still available in the UK, ‘reforms’ over the last few years have made claiming them one of the most draconian welfare sysytems in Europe. Indeed, there are now clear similarities between the new Green Paper on Welfare/Freud Review proposals and President Clinton's seminal 1996 welfare reforms are discussed in the package and which have been such a disaster for the poor in the U.S.

  • 23.
  • At 11:22 AM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • mary wrote:

I found yesterday news' discussions on oil prices rising really interesting and thought-provoking.It's amazing how we are depending so much on oil reserves on daily basis.
It's sure that we are approaching the end of cheap oil era and entering the new a frightening one I would say.
Documentary film A Crude Awakening,which treats this subject,was presented and it appeared very appealing.
How much time more we have until world oil reserves run out?
Should we seriously consider other sources of energy- wind, solar or even nuclear?

Ed, (various #s) the Iranian oil bourse story keeps resurfacing. However every time we ask them the official answer is they have no plan to create a non-dollar oil bourse.

On the various people who have complained my piece did not mention Peak Oil, the point is that this was a report about the political-economy implications of the current price.

Peak oil is a theory that I actually subscribe to, though I do not think it has a decisive answer to when the peak is. However I also subscribe to various other theories - it does not mean I have to put them into every single report I make, nor to shove them down the throats of people who don't agree. Newsnight has covered Peak Oil at length and in a timely manner (ie at least a couple of years ago).

Cheers
Paul Mason, Correspondent, Newsnight

  • 25.
  • At 12:01 PM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • shakir wrote:

That was semi-good. especially the oil issue -covering something, giving insight into something that still isn't in the mainstream!


Kind regards,

Shakir Razak

  • 26.
  • At 12:09 PM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • shakir wrote:

That was semi-good. especially the oil issue -covering something, giving insight into something that still isn't in the mainstream!


Kind regards,

Shakir Razak

  • 27.
  • At 05:37 PM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • ged wyman wrote:

Paul mason
Sorry to harp on about your failure to include "Peak oil" in last nights report, but the essence of what the theory proposes is not getting through to the public. We are bombarded daily with news topics, of which only a few enter the public psyche and become "discussion" topics. The subject needs to be mainstream. I watch question time regularly and cannot recall when politicians have been quizzed as to there view on such an important debate. Its clear that oil is a finite resource and whether we hit problems now or 20 years ahead, we need to revive the debate continuously. I have been interested in the debate for some 3 years now and sad to say that, with the exception of David Strahan, journalistic exploration of this subject has been poor. Finally, I am not against debate but while ever the subject remains in the "covered a couple of years back" category, it will drift from consciousness and give credence to the views (and false reassurances) of the naysayers.

  • 28.
  • At 08:34 PM on 08 Nov 2007,
  • Adrienne wrote:

Paxman asked Cohen some very good questions. Cohen's responses were dispiriting, but who would expect him to say anything else given that would make his 'entrepreneurial' behaviours unthinkable? What always strikes me when asked to give an account of their behaviour is the patent denial that there's anything wrong with it. To me it's as self-delusory as it's predatory. Charm disguises a lot.

Risk and uncertainty are never good, any more than greed is. It just generates high levels of anxiety and depression (which may be good for the pharmaceutical and alcohol industries but little else). Unless one has a large network of support to buttress one against the ups and downs (and most people don't) expect self-medication in the form of over-eating, alcoholism, drug addiction and indebtedness ('retail-therapy') if not prescription medication.

Cohen's vulgar philosophy of risk is in reality risk for others and profit for the risk creators, not risk. It's a formula for social misery, and for the evidence of that, just look about you at the rising crime rate, present and projected levels of obesity related illness, indiscipline in our schools, divorce and singleton rates, and most of all, our below fitness level birth rate. If the free-market is such a revolution, why are so many people so unhappy?

If what you see are not bad signs, what would it take to persuade you? Below replacement level TFRs *do* mean extinction and in quite a short time too, and this is why we are now swamped by immigration, to compensate for a shrinking population.

That the interview followed another NGO Cohen taking the now all too familiar liberal 'democratic' line that Georgia is at risk of returning to the influence of the 'evil empire' was aptly sequenced.


  • 29.
  • At 01:47 AM on 09 Nov 2007,
  • edith crowther wrote:


Thank you George Turner (15 and 16), for putting me right on how much of a life you get in low-paid work in America. I suspected as much, but of course I have no way of finding out - there is a deafening silence on this in all the media including the blogosphere. You blew a bigger hole through that nauseating report than I did - though not than John Rogers (1) did, but his info requires a bit of research work on Unum.

Of course all countries have always had masses of extremely poor people - who else would do the actual work, make the goods, deliver them, grow the food, etc. But at least most countries haven't had the gall to pretend the slaves aren't there and prance about at the UN Security Council as if they had got everything sorted at home. Indeed we in Britain seem to spend most of our time filming the poor of other countries. Someone should do it back to us.

To do Newsnight justice they have done it just once (to my knowledge), quite recently, when a female reporter ventured onto a council estate in Bootle, Lancashire. It was riveting, but tragic. I doubt if any politicians saw it, and if they had, it would have been like water off a duck's back. There was a completely idiotic studio discussion afterwards with some highly-paid people, all relatively recent arrivals in this country, from think tanks etc.

I think the benefits issue is secondary - the issue no-one likes to explore, is that working hard in the kind of low-grade work that high-paid work depends on doesn't get you anywhere, let alone allow you to save for your old age. Even if you do it for a lifetime. You spend everything you get just surviving. In the past poor people had communities and traditions to help them get through, and religion. Now they don't even have that. No political party will even discuss this, let alone do anything about it. Parts of most of our cities and big towns absolutely make your hair stand on end - but no-one educated ever goes there, they just drive past without looking.

Wappaho (19) - you really cheered me up. Your post is the best thing I have read in ages. Better than our great satirists of the 18th century. Every word was a gem. Can you please apply to be Governor of the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳? Thank you.

  • 30.
  • At 08:40 AM on 09 Nov 2007,
  • Peter Leese wrote:

In response to comment by Paul Mason that peak oil is a theory...

In my mind, peak oil is NOT a theory it is fact. There is only so much oil in the ground and once it's gone, its gone. Production of oil started from nothing and will return to nothing some time in the future. Production rates will go up and then down, basic maths. The big debate is when will we reach peak production rate, not if; how to cope after this peak and whether we should be worried now. All the signs at the moment suggest we should be very worried and hence the issues need to be discussed in full now and not brushed under the carpet.

  • 31.
  • At 12:12 PM on 09 Nov 2007,
  • Andrew Evans wrote:

Global oil decline rates from existing fields are between 2 and 6 percent.. Fact..

This means that to keep at 85 million barrels a day (75 conventional) we need a new 1.5 to 4.5 million barrels of new production a year... Fact

That means over the next 10 years we need to bring on stream the equivalent of 1.5-4.5 Saudi Arabias. To stand still..Fact

The governments, Opec and the media are in complete denial about this..Fact

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