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No Raila, No Peace - where next for Kenya

• Paul Mason
• 2 Jan 08, 07:25 PM

Corrupt government, rigged election, violence - some of it ethnically motivated: Kenya's crisis has thrown up stereotypical images of an African conflict. But the country's present agony is the product of a fast developing economy, and massive aspirations to democracy, which have been dashed...

President Kibaki came to power in 2002 promising democratic change; investment flowed in, the middle class grew rapidly: but corruption was slow to disappear. Raila Odinga left the government in 2005 and formed the Orange Democratic Movement, harnessing the power of NGOs and grassroots organisations in a voter registration campaign. Until days before the election, Odinga was ahead in the polls; and he was ahead as the votes were counted...

But president Kabaki ended up with a 230,000 majority.
Two polling stations in Kibaki's own Othaya constituency had impossibly high turnouts of 99.2% and 98.9%.
EU observers were turned away from several tallying centres as they tried to verify results.

Today both sides were accusing each other of fomenting genocide, and the opposition promising no let up until the election result is overturned...

Kivutha Kibwana, Minister for Lands, said: "We have made the point that to all the perpetrators of these crimes should be aware that genocide is a crime against humanity punishable most severely by Kenyan and international law. In actual fact even the international community in these unravelling events would be expected to state that."

In the urban shanty towns where Raila Odinaga's mass following exists, the initial clashes were between the paramilitary police unit, the GSU, and youth... But the violence soon fed on inter-ethnic rivalries...

There are 40 ethnic groups in Kenya and no single one is a majority.... But the Kikuyu tribe led Kenya's independence movement and, since then, have been seen by others as beneficiaries of one-party rule;
the Luo people of the economically developed west, Mr Odinga's homeland, were strong supporters of the ODM.
And the Masai, who, away from the Safari parks, have been engaged in low-level land rivalries with the Kikuyu for years.

Thirty-five people were killed in Eldoret, when Kikuyus seeking refuge in a local church were attacked by local youths, reportedly from the Kalenjin tribe. Mr Odinga's home town of Kisumu, predominantly from the Luo tribe, has seen heavy attacks against Kikuyu people - with refugees flooding across the border to Uganda.

The slum dwellers are not a volatile and amorphous mob: when I visited Kibera, Kenya's biggest slum, last year there was a thriving grassroots movement with high hopes for Odinga but wary of hitching themselves to politicians...I spoke to one of the leaders there by phone today, who confirmed there had been inter-ethnic fighting within the settlement:

Marcy Kadenyeka, Co-ordinator, Nairobi People's Settlement Network told me: "Even as the coordinator in Langata constituency where Raila belongs I can't even move out of my house - I cant even get credit to communicate; the situation is not really allowing me to communicate with my members ... They are being denied their rights - so where is this democracy? I don't see democracy at all - in fact I was supposed to be in the office today serving people but I can't get out because the situation is so tense: I can't even get food - and people will be dying of hunger."

Over the past two days the international community's response to the election irregularities, and the violence, has increased in urgency. The White House - which initially endorsed the result - has swung behind Europe in calling for an inquiry into the result. Here, the Prime Minister - who'se spoken to both men - called for restraint...

Gordon Brown said: "We've had intensive diplomatic activity because it's very important when millions queued up to cast their vote and they deserve a government which brings about stability, prosperity that respects the will of the people. Any election irregularities should be properly investigated and we have to do our bit to bring about reconciliation and unity particularly at this time with such unjustified killing to bring violence to an end and so Kufuor鈥檚 mission is so important. Both parties have agreed to meet him."

What's at stake in Kenya is not just the stability of one of Africa's fastest developing and, until now, most stable countries. America has a military base there - operating into Somalia and the Middle East; there's a large Muslim minority on the coast; meanwhile China has become Kenya's biggest investor and recently donated 800,000 dollars worth of arms; basically two major powers have a strong interest in the status quo.

Despite the serious inter-ethnic violence, the main dynamic of the Kenyan crisis is a democracy struggle. With 40% of the population in abject poverty, with the government mired in corruption and press censorship, the fear is that any decisive showdown with the opposition will fracture the Army and Police. Then, the inter-ethnic tensions will go unchecked and a country that thought it was on the brink of a democratic breakthrough to match its economic growth, descends into chaos.

Tomorrow the opposition plans a mass demonstration in Nairobi that the activists see as decisive. Marcy Kadenyeka told me: "Tomorrow Raila has called for a meeting in Uhuru Park - and the government is not giving room for that meeting...if justice is not done and (youth) are going to go to tomorrow's meeting, and if that meeting is not going to be held, they are ready to be killed by the GSU but they are not going to give in"

Tonight, the government - increasingly beleaguered - seemed to prevent a planned mediation visit by the president of the African Union. Meanwhile on the streets, down the barrel of every camera in every shanty town, you hear one slogan: No Raila, No Peace....