Wish I'd taken a punt now, really - on the Rock!
- 18 Feb 08, 08:31 AM
Two weeks ago I appeared on Newsnight to talk about the bids in for Northern Rock. I went as near as I could to suggesting that the pullout of Olivant, leaving Branson plus the in-house "bid", left the Rock very close to Nationalisation. The reason? Both bids effectively only offered half a billion of new money in return for the government removing risk on 24bn worth of debt. Of course only Treasury people could be privy to the deep inner mathematics of the bids but even a jackass such as myself could work out that this possibly did not represent best value for taxpayers' money.
I had strong belief there and then that it would have to be temporarily nationalised. Why? For a reason you can't stake your reputation on: the tone of voice of everybody in government I spoke to betrayed their despair at the non-appearance of decent bids from the private sector. When I asked Downing Street that night: "are you planning to nationalise the Rock" the reply was "Treasury matter, Paul" - as in Father Jack Hackett's famous all-purpose brush off "That would be an ecumenical matter..."
Watching this unfold from Hong Kong, where I've just arrived on assignment for 成人论坛 World's upcoming China Week, it will be interesting to see how Labour plays this. More in sorrow than in socialism, is what I expect - but if it becomes a party political issue, you may see some on the Labour backbenches tempted to laud the Chancellor for his bold statism - which he must be dreading.
However, the fact remains we are here because of a regulatory failure: and the body language - which my experience wtih the Treasury over the Rock has told me to trust - suggests things still aint right. The government has sidestepped the Bank of England and proposes to give the FSA oversight of a new surveillance regime - yet MPs fingered the FSA itself as failing to spot this coming. Instead of a tripartite authority you have a tripartite quarrel over future responsibility.
All this will now work its way through the legal system as Northern Rock's shareholders begin the battle for compensation. Hopefully, as with the Railtrack debacle, any court hearing will produce a five inch thick file of emails from within Whitelhall and we will all get to see exactly who should have spotted the problem and why they didn't:
Plus - if we get any Shriti Vadera-style missives it will be well worth tuning in to the inevitable Newsnight reconstruction. I respectfully invite my Treasury contacts to start nominating which actor's gonna play them when it comes to that!
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ECUMENICAL? DON'T MENTION THE WAR!
Dear Father Jack - a man of true wisdom - not the adjustable kind of Rowan Williams. If only he could have been on hand, for commentary, when that speech was delivered.
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As an ordinary joe, with the usual savvy, but without 'actuarial' expertise; I tend to believe HM Government. I think they were damned if they Nationalised quickly, and damned if they didn't get the correct financial weight of private bid for Northern Rock. Whatever way they jumped, and it is not an easy, forgone simple solution, the Tories were going to salami slice their criticisms, so they will linger in the mouth.
The Politician who reeled me in, whom I wholly trust on this issue, because he talks so convincingly, speaks quickly, confidently, because his knowledge advises his mouth, rather his speech, without ooh, err, um; is Mr Vince Cable, the Liberal Shadow Chancellor. He has said the same words for about two months. He is either good at learning speeches, unimaginative at solutions, OR he is correct!
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Hi Paul
Northern Rock -Big story,
here today (or at least a week ago)
gone tomorrow, or at least gonno now
how fickle is the news media?
best wishes
Bob
this might post or disppear like the long post I sent half an hour ago to the main site
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just a Question,
Will there be anything significant resulting out of what has happened at Northern Rock on Wednesday?
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the same footing with gold and silver mines, which, without a special clause free awesome myspace layouts and stuff unnecessary quantity of gold and silver must, in every country, fvwrjutois
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If Paul Mason was a little more educated about the legal structures of the EU, as well as the continuum through EU commitments on international trade law, he might not be writing such tosh and would have foreseen that nationalisation is not allowed under Internal Market regulation.
Its shameful that we have these people on night after night 'presenting the information' when they are so ill-informed.
Not to mention forcing their own blinkered political perspectives on us.
We all want the workers revolution, but some of us recognise that you don't get anywhere just wishing and hoping, or even writing books about wishing and hoping. You have to recognise and deal with the actual challenges.
In this case - it's immigration, manipulated by Big Business, through Internal market rules etc etc, undermining labour standards - with global knock-on. Again , it requires those working in the media to be informed of the basics.
There - I've said the I word, and from a Left perspective.
And further ignorance in reporting on China. Sure it might look really authentic being there and all. But a more nuanced recall of what went on in Tiannamin Square would be useful (and less destructive). The protests were not free market rebels against Commie control, but against the neoliberal marketisation that the Party heavyweights were, and have been since, forcing on people. That kind of changes things, but was, it seems too subtle for Paul Mason. But would have made more sense with the rest of his story.
At least the guy in Zimbabwe(John??) has seen the light (despite being in the dark), has lifted his game since his dodgy embedded reporting in Aghanistan, and is prepared to alert people to the politically manipulated spin behind the headline stories. I was impressed - more of it!
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