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The Ronaldo Of Westminster?

• Michael Crick
• 2 Jun 08, 03:58 PM

Is Mark Oaten trying to do a Ronaldo? One wouldn't normally compare the Lib Dem MP for Winchester with the world's greatest footballer. OK, they've both been embarrassed by the British tabloids over their private lives, but one would hardly expect the former Lib Dem leadership contender to score one goal a season, let alone 42.

No, I speak of the strange noises coming from Mr Oaten over the weekend to the effect that he may have to stand down from Parliament before the next election. He originally planned to retire from the Commons at the next election, and is currently negotiating with potential future employers. He now says his new bosses may require him to step down ahead of time.

"Obviously I'm having conversations with people about future jobs and careers," he told me today. "I've taken on a number of roles already, and non-directorships, but I am not about to sign a big new contract. But I can't give a 100 per cent guarantee I will be able to stay in Parliament right up to the election."

Many suspect that the Manchester United footballer is muttering about joining Real Madrid in an attempt to get a better deal from his current bosses at United. Is Mr Oaten perhaps trying to do the same thing? He laughs off the idea.

If Mr Oaten does step down early, it will cause huge embarrassment to the Lib Dems. He knows that in the current climate his 7,476 majority in Winchester would be highly vulnerable to the Conservatives, and David Cameron and his colleagues would dearly love to win back a seat where they suffered a humiliating 21,000 Lib Dem majority defeat back in 1997. You'll recall Mr Oaten won a rather strange re-election contest after the Tories unwisely challenged his original election by just two votes in the 1997 general election itself.

If Nick Clegg has any sense - and he has plenty - he'll strain every sinew to keep Mark Oaten in Parliament for the next two years, as a by-election defeat for the Lib Dems in Winchester would be disastrous, suggesting that they've become a busted flush in modern politics. For decades the Lib Dems have thrived almost entirely on by-election victories - actually to lose one of their seats would be unthinkable - indeed when was the last time it happened in a by-election? (Anybody know? I'll provide the answer by tomorrow.)

Normally the promise of a peerage would keep a difficult MP quiet, but that's not so easy these days. So how can Nick Clegg keep Mark Oaten onside over the next two years? One possibility lies within Mr Oaten's recent book - a rather good history of coalitions and political arrangements between parties in British politics. Perhaps Mr Clegg should appoint Mr Oaten as his chief adviser on how the Lib Dems handle the scenario of a hung Parliament - a pretty likely possibility as things stand. Promise him he'll take a lead part in any negotiations. Dress things up a bit, and you could make Mr Oaten out to be a strong power-broker, a potential king-maker perhaps.

Mad? Maybe, but you come up with a better idea. What I do know is that Nick Clegg can't afford a by-election in Winchester.