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(Yes, the Breaking News link was a reference to pottery ... )

Short of an October (or November) surprise, it's looking like the United States is about to elect its first black president. Already, the political commentators are picking over the bones of the McCain campaign strategy to work out how it failed. The best piece I've seen on this so far is Robert Draper's article in this weekend's New York Times Magazine. Draper pieces together, step by step, the McCain team's efforts to sustain a credible narrative for their candidate. Americans vote for their president on the basis of a narrative: they are offered a story which they buy into or reject. Obama has maintained a coherent narrative throughout this long campaign, but McCain's team have struggled on a month-by-month basis with a coherence and credibility problem. As a result, they have branded, re-branded and re-re-branded their candidate out of all recognition -- leaving him looking muddled in the eyes of swing-voters. Read Draper's article .

I will select, as my money quote from Draper's piece, part of his account of the hurried conversation which introduced Sarah Palin to an astonished world:

'After that first brief meeting, [Rick] Davis [McCain's campaign manager] remained in discreet but frequent contact with Palin and her staff -- gathering tapes of speeches and interviews, as he was doing with all potential vice-presidential candidates. One tape in particular struck Davis as arresting: an interview with Palin and Gov. Janet Napolitano, the Arizona Democrat, on "The Charlie Rose Show" that was shown in October 2007. Reviewing the tape, it didn't concern Davis that Palin seemed out of her depth on health-care issues or that, when asked to name her favorite candidate among the Republican field, she said, "I'm undecided." What he liked was how she stuck to her pet issues -- energy independence and ethics reform -- and thereby refused to let Rose manage the interview. This was the case throughout all of the Palin footage. Consistency. Confidence. And . . . well, look at her. A friend had said to Davis: "The way you pick a vice president is, you get a frame of Time magazine, and you put the pictures of the people in that frame. You look at who fits that frame best -- that's your V. P."

By the way, it's worth pointing out that not every number-cruncher has given up on McCain's bid for the presidency. We're still not sure what impact race and racism will have on the minds of voters when they cast their vote in eight days' time. One possible outcome, even by today's figures, is that Obama could win the popular vote while losing in the electoral college (which is where presidencies are made). There's still time for yet another re-branding.

I'mblogging live from the queue outside the Urban Hymns event at May Street Church. My ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ colleague Mark McCleary has just said, perhaps a little too loudly: "I can't remember the last time I queued for a church." And I can't remember a longer queue for a Belfast Festival gig. Stuart Bailie has told me who their secret guest performer will be, but I shouldn't reveal his identity until he's on stage. We can say that Foy Vance -- one of my favourite performers -- will take to the stagesoon with his version of Leonard Cohen's 'Hallelujah.' That prospect almost makes this queue bearable.

So stop worrying and enjoy your life. That's the message at the heart of a . We'll be talking about it tomorrow, too. It's the brainchild of Ariane Sherine, who will be joining us on the programme.

Howard Jacobson isn't impressed by the campaign. In today's Indy, he writes:

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We've a wonderfully heady show lined up for tomorrow. In addition to exploring the cultural riches of Byzantium (oh, yes!), we'll be taking a close-up look at a key modern thinker who remains uncelebrated in the land of his birth. Full disclosure requires me to fess up here: I have already created a Facebook appreciation group in honour of the philosopher Francis Hutcheson (for it is he), which boasts the sum total of 14 members. You know who you are.

The Francis Hutcheson Appreciation Society (catchy title, I know) describes itself as a group "for those who wish to celebrate the legacy of the Irish philosopher Francis Hutcheson (1694 - 1746), one of the founding fathers of the Scottish Enlightenment and an early defender of Utilitarianism. Born in Drumalig, in county Down, Northern Ireland, Hutcheson was educated at Glasgow University and served as professor of moral philosophy at Glasgow from 1729 until his death in 1746. His students included Adam Smith and Thomas Reid and he was one of the first academics to lecture in English rather than Latin."

That's the potted bio. But next week, at Stormont no less, a symposium will seek to build recognition for this remarkable thinker. And on tomorrow's programme, I'll be talking to two scholars of Hutcheson's work, Alexander Broadie and Michael Brown.

A couple of months ago, we examined the controversy in the United States following the decision by a major publishing house to abandon the publication of The Jewel of Medina by Sherry Jones. I interviewed one of the few people who had actually read the unpublished text and we talked about the limits of free speech. Jones's book is 'historical romantic fiction': it draws heavily from the recorded accounts of the Prophet Muhammad's second wife, Aisha. By any account, Aisha was a very young woman (or girl), and this book explores her developing sexuality and also her relationship with the Prophet.

The book subsequently found a US publisher willing to take the risk of publishing it. But the Jewel of Medina is not currently being sold in the United Kingdom ' The UK launch of the book has been postponed. Its erstwhile UK publisher, Gibson Square, decided to delay publication after the home of an employee of the publishing house Soon after that action, Sherry Jones chose (understandably) to cancel her flight to the UK for the launch.

Even in on the controversy, the editor has felt the need to add a postscript to a generic photograph pointing out that the woman shown reading the book, whose face is not in shot, is a model posing for the picture.

The philosopher Mary Warnock following the news that in a Swiss euthanasia clinic.

Tomorrow marks the 20th anniversary of the introduction of the so-called 'Broadcasting Ban'. It began as a new counter-terrorism strategy aimed at silencing the apologists for terror and denying them the oxygen of publicity. That, at least, is how the prime minister of the day, Margaret Thatcher, and her home secretary, Douglas Hurd, defended their decision, on 19 October 1988, to introduce some of the most stringent controls imposed on the broadcast media since World War Two.

The broadcasting ban, or 'Restrictions' as they were officially known, extended to 11 republican and loyalist organisations believed to support terrorism, but many believed that Sinn Féin and the IRA were the main targets. At best, it could be said that it was half-hearted censorship. Newspapers would be permitted to carry statements from those organisations, and television news programmes would be permitted to show images of spokesmen at press conferences, but their voices would have to be removed.
With 20 years' worth of hindsight, Douglas Hurd now says he accepts that the ban soon became enormously counter-productive.

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Senator Ernie Chambers is quite a character. The Nebraska state legislator has been trying to challenge the use of religious language in the US courts and in American politics generally. A year ago, he came up with a colourful strategy: he would sue God in the courts for "widespread death, destruction and terrorization of millions upon millions of the Earth's inhabitants." The court, he imagined, must take the claim seriously since the existence of the deity seems to be acknowledged in official documents ("one nation under God", etc.). But he wasn't anticipating the creative jurisprudence of Dstrict Court Judge Marlon Polk. Judge Polk has dimissed the case on the basis that the proposed defendant -- namely, the Almighty -- was not properly served notice of the proceeding. The Supreme Being's home address was apparently unlisted in court documents. Full story .

John Woods, the Northern Ireland head of h, is listed at number 79 in the Independent on Sunday's list of . This puts the FoE director in the same company as David Cameron, Prince Charles, Tony Juniper, John Houghton and Nick Stern. John Woods, you will recall, recently took on the NI Environment Minister Sammy Wilson after the minister described climate change campaigners as a "hysterical psuedo-religion". John Woods's response: he said Mr Wilson was "like a cigarette salesman denying that smoking causes cancer".

How on earth Rowan Williams has found the time to write a new book about Dostoevsky will no doubt become an issue for some of his opponents within Anglicanism, who suspect that he has lacked focus in his role as ABC. Archbishop Williams has written much about Russian literature and theology over many years as a scholar, and his fascination has continued while in episcopal office.

Nevertheless, of Doestoevsky: Language, Faith and Fiction is less than celebratory. Money quote:

'The archbishop's mind is one of eternal fractal elaboration. Each thought produces its opposite; each qualification must be qualified; each pool of sense must be adulterated with a dash of nonsense. There were times when I wondered whether I was struggling through the worst prose ever written by a poet. Sometimes the thought disintegrates entirely, like a jellyfish dropped in a jacuzzi: "The absolute necessity for recognition in the exchanges of dialogue means that, while we can indeed at one level say what we please (that two and two are not four), the construction of a life requires that we discover how we can speak in a way that does not just repeat or reproduce what is given, yet is at the same time occupying the same world of thought and perception that others in their speech inhabit. Speech may be free but it needs to be bearable - otherwise it fails finally to be language at all." The irony of a man writing so badly about the necessity of writing well is hardly to be borne.'

Rowan Williams talks to Stuart Jeffries about his book .

''A clergyman in charge of education for the country's leading scientific organisation - it's a Monty Python sketch." Discuss.

It would make an excellent question for an introductory course in the history of science. The quotation comes from Richard Dawkins, and he is referring to Michael Reiss, the former director of education for the Royal Society. Some of the leading figures in the early days of the Royal Society were clergymen, and some of the leading figures in the history of science more generally have also served as clergy. Here's to the History of Science 101 exam question.

The American Future, that is. I've been interviewing Simon Schama about his new book, which makes the case for anti-anti-Americanism and argues that the United States will survive this current bout of feverish anti-Americanism. That lat sentence was very ugly, but nevertheless accurate. You can hear Simon talk about his decision to write a history of the future in the next series of The Book Programme. I'll post details in good time. Come to think of it, anti-anti-Americanism seems to be in vogue these days. Stephen Fry has a new book out, accompanying his new TV exploration of all fifty US states, and essentially appeals for a kinder and more balanced reception of America and its contribution to the world. Recently, I interviewed my colleague Justin Webb about his new book, which essentially makes the same case. Interestingly, these three books reflect the different personalities and interests of their authors, and could be read together without much overlap except in the basic philosophical stance (if that's the term for an attempt to restore some balance to the public debate on America).

I asked Simon about the place of race in the presidential debate and he is supremely optimistic that British nay-sayers will be surprised by the outcome of the election on November 4th. He makes no effort to disguise his support for Barack Obama, and believes American voters will carry this second generation immigrant candidate to the White House. Even Cal Thomas -- yes, even Cal Thomas, the doyen of American conservative political commentators -- told me on Sunday that the election is now Obama's to lose. Of course, a week is a long time in politics; and the negative campaigning has stepped up a gear. If McCain's team have any new character flaw to reveal about their opponent, we should expect to see it deployed in the final two weeks of the campaign.

I do take issue with one thing Cal told me on Sunday morning (and I am always nervous about disagreeing with Cal Thomas on any aspect of American politics -- he is, after all the world's most successful syndicated columnist). Cal maintains that the findings of a legislative committee investigation into Sarah Palin are irrelevant to the campaign; that only media people like us will take an interest in this development. It is, he says, essentially a footnote. I'm not sure about that. I survey a lot of US media output on the election, and it's getting a lot of coverage; and since the Republican party has given so much emphasis to 'character' in this election (as in previous elections), it's surely significant that an official investigation has accused a veep candidate of abuses of power in her own state. If the shoe was on the other foot and it was Obama being excoriated in an official report, would Republicans be quite so cavalier about the findings?

Did Sarah Palin use her powers as governor of Alaska to try to have a former family member removed from his position as a state trooper? It's called , and the investigation into those alleged abuses of power has

Money quote:

"Governor Sarah Palin abused her power by violating Alaska Statute 39.52.110 (a) of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act."

Read the entire report . I'll be talking to Cal Thomas tomorrow about the likely impact of the Troopergate findings.

I'm supposed to be taking a break for a few days, but that doesn't stop me reading the papers. In today's Guardian, that he has been diagnosed with a very treatable cancer. Nevertheless, it prompts thoughts of mortality -- and the inevitable questions about why an all-loving God would permit suffering to exist in the world.

Money quote:

"I believe in God. God created the world. Obviously pain had to be included in God's plan. Otherwise we'd never learn that our actions have consequences. Our cave-person ancestors, finding fire warm, would conclude that curling up to sleep in the middle of the flames would be even warmer. Cave bears would dine on roast ancestor, and we'd never get any bad news and pain because we wouldn't be here. But God, Sir, in Your manner of teaching us about life's consequential nature, isn't death a bit ... um ... extreme, pedagogically speaking? I know the lesson we're studying is difficult. But dying is more homework than I was counting on. Also, it kind of messes up my vacation planning. Can we talk after class? Maybe if I did something for extra credit?"

Analysts say it will probably be the most watched vice-presidential debate in history. And with showing that one third of likely voters say the choice of Sarah Palin makes it more unlikely that they will vote for John McCain, this really is make-or-break time for the Republican vice-presidential candidate.

If you are planning to stay up into the early hours of the morning to watch the Palin-Biden encounter, there a are a number of US news channels offering live webcasts, including , , and .

If you are feeling suitably caffeinated in the early hours of Friday morning, let me know who your think comes on top.