The politics of Lewis Carroll
Funny thing politics. Victory for Tony Blair's education reforms looks increasingly likely to turn into a political defeat for the prime minister himself.
No wonder at Question Time a Labour MP talked about the "politics of Lewis Carroll". (You can watch it here - go to the last question.) David Taylor was referring to the fact that so many Labour MPs oppose the reforms and so many Tories back them.
Despite Tony Blair telling his MPs that he wants "a Labour Bill passed with Labour votes" senior ministers increasingly believe that they will only win thanks to the votes of Tory MPs. Yes, concessions have been made. Yes, leading rebels have switched - albeit grudgingly - to become backers of the legislation. But, no, backbenchers are not following. That became clear at a series of meetings last night - hours after the Bill was published.
It's much too early to predict rebel numbers. Huge political pressure will be put on potential rebels over the next fortnight to come into line. Yet I can find few who seriously believe that there will be fewer than 35. That's the magic number which means that Tony Blair needs Tory support to win.
So, will that, as some have claimed, be curtains for the PM? Already his allies are insisting that "a win is a win is a win". He himself has said it would be absurd for him to resign if he'd just won a vote. But other senior Labour figures are speculating on what size of rebellion would so damage Tony Blair's authority and credibility as to hasten his departure from Number 10.
Prepare for a battle of spin. Blairites will point to vast Labour rebellions that he's shrugged off in the past - like the 73 who rebelled over top-up fees or the 65 who rebelled on cuts to lone parent benefit. Enemies of Blair will say that on a flagship bill this early in a new Parliament a revolt that big should spell the end.
Lewis Carroll would have had great fun explaining how victory could in fact mean defeat. And with the fact that the vote will take place on the Ides of March (the 15th). Beware, Mr Blair, beware.
I'm 
