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Archives for December 2006

Decision Time

Nick Robinson | 15:09 UK time, Sunday, 24 December 2006

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Do we have to stop flying to save the planet from climate change? How great a threat is Iran? Two topics on the news agenda and - as it happens - which kick off a new Radio 4 discussion programme which I'm hosting and which begins just after Christmas.

Decision Time aims to lift the lid on how those in power make the big decisions that affect all our lives, inviting listeners to hear the sort of arguments, calculations and heart-searching that take place as the Government wrestles with a decision it simply can鈥檛 avoid.

Ministers like to claim that the Government makes its decisions purely in the national interest. The cynics insist they always put their own interests first. Decision Time will aim to show how any government of any political colour might deal with the conflicting interests they have to try to reconcile.

On Wednesday 27 December at 2000 GMT on Radio Four (repeated on Saturday 30 December at 2215 GMT) you can hear the first programme in which Steve Norris - a former Tory Transport minister - will argue that if he was in charge now he'd force aviation to pay for the environmental damage it does.

Roy Griffins (the head of civil aviation at the Department of Transport until a couple of years ago), Toby Nicol who's corporate communications director for Easyjet, Helen Goodman MP, who was head of the strategy unit at the Treasury, and the travel writer Simon Calder will confront him with the obstacles he'd meet if he tried.

A week later on Wednesday 3 January at 2000 GMT on Radio Four Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former foreign and defence secretary will argue that military action against Iran cannot be ruled out if she pursues her nuclear programme. He'll be in discussion with Sir Jeremy Greenstock, our man at the UN in the build up to the war with Iraq, Sir Stephen Wall, the prime minister鈥檚 former adviser on Europe who has since attacked Tony Blair's conviction that he has to hitch the UK to the chariot of the US president, and Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former CIA specialist on the Middle East who has warned that we may have to fight a war with Iran sooner rather than later.

So that's a couple of things coming up. Otherwise Newslog is going to be taking a bit of a Christmas recess, barring any sudden unexpected incidents of high political drama. Thanks to everyone who's been reading and commenting this year. Let's do it all again in 2007!

EDIT (2300, 27 December): You can now listen to the first episode of Decision Time by clicking here.

No comment

Nick Robinson | 11:46 UK time, Thursday, 21 December 2006

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I'm glad that my blog yesterday has provoked a good debate about the rights and wrongs of the 成人论坛's coverage of cash for honours. I note that . Allow me to note delicately that this does reveal where he's coming from and, working for the 成人论坛, I would not be permitted to take that view or, indeed, the opposite one!

So is the 成人论坛 'anti-politics'?

Nick Robinson | 10:36 UK time, Wednesday, 20 December 2006

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My friend Steve Richards has written a characteristically challenging and thought provoking attack on the 成人论坛鈥檚 coverage of the cash for honours investigation in his column in the Independent (). Before I tell you where I think he鈥檚 wrong and where he has a point let me say that I know that his worries are shared by others who, like Steve, I respect.

Richards calls the 成人论坛鈥檚 coverage of Tony Blair鈥檚 interview with the police last Thursday "one-sided". There was, he says, "little attempt to explain, place the event in context or question what the police were up to". The 成人论坛, he goes on, "breathlessly" described the events "without qualification 鈥s one of his [Blair鈥檚] darkest days" while not questioning whether the police were "behaving with appropriate propriety" or setting out the context of the "build-up to the last election, when the main parties were battling it out for funds".

Predictable or not, inevitable or not 鈥 and not so long ago it appeared to be neither - the police鈥檚 first ever interview of a serving prime minister was a major news story. The context that had to be set out on that day was the fact that Mr Blair had not been cautioned, was not being treated as a suspect and that he, and indeed everyone else involved, may never face charges.

It was not 鈥 in the limited time available that day 鈥 vital to discuss whether or not the police have been briefing the media or the history of the fund-raising difficulties faced by all parties at the last election. You may recall that there was no shortage of news that day 鈥 the government鈥檚 decision to , and , not to mention . One result of Downing Street鈥檚 decision to invite the police in on this day 鈥 and, yes, it was their choice 鈥 was to limit the space for that added context!

Now, having said that, I think Steve鈥檚 arguments should make us pause for thought. We do need to find opportunities to set out how all parties have had problems with fund-raising; how all hate the choices forced upon them and how this is a desperate problem faced by every major democracy. into the future of party funding will give us the chance to do that in the New Year.

It is also right to reflect on the challenges posed to political journalists by an ongoing police investigation. Every development it throws up, every new interview or piece of evidence which emerges can be presented as if the net is closing in on the guilty when no-one may turn out to have been guilty of anything. Since most of those being investigated have been advised by lawyers to stay silent we sometimes have only the bare facts of those developments to report together with the occasional 鈥 though significant 鈥 briefings given by Yates of the Yard to Members of Parliament.

It is not right, however, to suggest 鈥 as Steve Richards does - that this story is being driven primarily by police "spin". Let us recall where it began. It started when politicians - the Lords Appointments Commission - refused to approve Tony Blair鈥檚 nominees for peerages and it took off when another politician - Labour鈥檚 treasurer Jack Dromey 鈥 blew the whistle on the use of loans to bypass his party鈥檚 own legislation on the funding of elections. Clearly, though, stories about who鈥檚 going to be interviewed next about what are more likely to have come from someone on the prosecution rather than the defence鈥檚 side.

As it happens, the story the 成人论坛 broke last week about Sir Christopher Evans keeping a note that Lord Levy had talked to him about a "K or a big P" emerged not from some secret police briefing but because several witnesses (politicians I might add) had those words presented to them by the police. Good old fashioned journalism meant that my colleague Reeta Chakrabati heard about this and we reported it.

Steve Richards ends his column with his most worrying and, I believe, inaccurate charge. The 成人论坛, he writes, "has inadvertently become anti-politics" in our desire, he suggests, to make waves. "Senior politicians," he writes, "are accused with casual complacency of being corrupt. No wonder the fanatics in the BNP and elsewhere rub their hands with glee." This simply won鈥檛 do.

A senior police officer in charge of an investigation which is unprecedented in British political history has stated publicly that his inquiry team has "significant and valuable material" and hints that charges may follow. At the same time, it is now virtually impossible to find a senior politician who will defend, in private or in public, the way loans were raised in the run-up to the last election. On all sides politicians agree that the system of party funding must change. A Commons Select Committee warned this week against the "further erosion of public confidence due to the increasing appearance of money buying power and influence". The 成人论坛 is not being 鈥渁nti politics鈥 when it reports those facts.

PS. Today we can reflect that whether you agree with Richards or me, this inquiry is unlikely to produce anything remotely like the revelations about the life former Irish Prime Minister Charles Haughey lived. that his yacht, personal island, race horses, mansion and lavish lifestyle were funded by bribes from businessmen!

PPS (1233 GMT)
I shouldn't have singled out Steve Richards. I overlooked (yes, really, they both are friends who once worked alongside me at the 成人论坛).

Pause for thought

Nick Robinson | 11:21 UK time, Friday, 15 December 2006

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Lord Levy is in the Middle East preparing the way for a prime ministerial tour. Although dubbed the "Prime Minister's envoy", he travels at his own expense and in his own time. Something he will, no doubt, be pondering on as he hears that the police appear to be honing in on him in their investigation into allegations of cash for honours. Will he, I wonder, ask the man he's raised so many millions for what the police asked him and how their investigation is going? Or is it a case of "don't mention the police"?

One other reason for Lord Levy to pause for thought is the 成人论坛's revelation that the police have seized notes made by Sir Christopher Evans - a Labour donor who was arrested in September - after their conversations. The notes are alleged to include references to honours and they have been referred to by police when they have questioned witnesses.

Sir Christopher insists that the police have "no record of any conversation about or offers of a peerage". He finds himself in a curious position. Given his links to Labour and his success as a biotech entrepreneur, many people might have expected him to be nominated some day. The million pounds help he gave to Labour was always in the form of a loan - not a donation - and he is now insisting that it is re-paid in full.

Lord Levy has not commented but in recent days he's told friends that if people want to dream and fantasise about what he might have said, that's up to them.

PS There was much talk yesterday of "". Aren't we reaching for the wrong metaphor? Isn't it more a question of fly tipping so much of the stuff that one scarcely knows what to begin with?

Blair questioned

Nick Robinson | 13:59 UK time, Thursday, 14 December 2006

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We only know two facts at this stage - but they are significant ones.

The prime minister has been interviewed by police, but it was not under caution. That is a key point - because if the police had any suspicion that Tony Blair might in the end have charges brought against him, they would be under a legal obligation to caution him (i.e. to read out the traditional caution that anything that he said might be used in evidence against him).

I'm told by police sources that the threshold for cautioning is very low indeed - in other words, you err on the side of a caution. If you have the slightest suspicion that further down the line you might wish to bring charges, you caution. Because if you don't, you might find that anything that was heard at this stage could be inadmissible in a court case.

What this means is that the police must currently have no reason to believe that charges will be brought against the prime minister himself. It tells us nothing - either way - as to whether charges may be brought against someone else close to him.

Needless to say, however, today's events are extraordinary. Not since the Lloyd George affair - in which there was, of course, the open selling of honours - have we had anything like this. It's an embarrassment to Tony Blair - he, of course, promised to make politics whiter-than-white when he first came to office in 1997.

Facing this sort of investigation has caused him quite some frustration - he's felt unable to answer the critics, to answer some of the suggestions that were being brought forward. And until the police finally submit a file to the CPS, and the CPS makes a decision on whether to bring charges - against the PM or against anybody else - he will not be able to reply.

But the truth is that politics has come to a stage under his premiership in which a serving PM is being questioned about the abuse of rules over fundraising, and the granting of honours. Even if it ends up - as it may well yet - that there are no charges brought, this is a low day for Tony Blair, who wished and promised to change the face and the nature of politics in Britain.

Whatever happens, the rules governing party funding and honours will surely be transformed by the lessons of this episode. No one will be clearer about the need for that than the prime minister himself.

UPDATE 1542 GMT: It's been pointed out to me that Tony Blair did not promise to be "whiter than white". The promise was, for sake of accuracy, to be "purer than pure". And to be "a government that seeks to restore trust in politics in this country". I stand corrected.

PS. While I am at it, can I thank the Labour Party press office for their well-timed e-Christmas card listing the party's achievements!

Soft language

Nick Robinson | 17:52 UK time, Thursday, 7 December 2006

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WASHINGTON DC: Sitting in the press conference, I thought it was extraordinary that just the day after the Iraq study group had been so critical of what was happening in Iraq, the president used such soft language to describe the situation there. All we got from the president was a very gentle phrase about the trouble in Baghdad being 'unsettling'.

That's why I put .

The detail of his response was fascinating. In his answer, he mentioned 9/11, the danger that Iraq would become a safe haven for terrorists (as Afghanistan was), the nuclear threat (presumably he meant Iran), and oil. So it seems that while the president is on the back foot at home on Iraq, he tried to raise all the things that would encourage the American people to support him.

White House news conference

Nick Robinson | 16:45 UK time, Thursday, 7 December 2006

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WASHINGTON DC: I've just been eyeballed long and hard by George Bush for suggesting he might be in denial re Iraq. It's important, he told me, that you understand that I understand that it's bad.

UPDATE 5:20 PM: See it for yourself here...

What a difference a day makes

Nick Robinson | 04:14 UK time, Thursday, 7 December 2006

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WASHINGTON DC: It is impossible to conceive of the prime minister and the president standing shoulder to shoulder today as they've done so many times before to insist that the war in Iraq is being won, and that all that's needed is the will "to stay the course" (Bush-speak) or to "get the job done" (Blair-speak).

Just before flying to the US, Tony Blair was asked at Prime Minister's Questions whether he agreed with the new US defence secretary's stark assessment of the war. "Of course" came the reply as if that's what he'd always said. That follows his assent recently to the suggestion that Iraq was .

Clearly the rhetoric at this White House news conference will be very different form others in the past. What, though, of the reality?

The for some of what the British government have been urging on the American administration in private. Ever since 9/11, the prime minister has talked of the urgency of pursuing an Arab-Israeli settlement. I expect him to announce that he's heading to the Middle East again soon in an effort to accelerate the search for peace between Israel and the Palestinians. In so doing Mr Blair is mirroring the call from the Iraq Study Group for a "whole Middle East strategy". So far, though, President Bush has not followed his lead.

The prime minister has also, like the ISG, spoken of engaging Iraq's partners, Iran and, in particular, Syria. Although Mr Blair's foreign affairs adviser recently visited Syria there are no plans for the PM to follow him on the road to Damascus. The message from London is that the door is open to President Assad but it is his choice as to whether he walks through it. His trip to the region will take in other countries though that are regarded as moderate Muslim allies.

Recently, a state department official here in Washington confessed that "we typically ignore" the British and "take no notice - it's a sad business". Tony Blair must hope that he just might be listened to, now that senior American politicians from both parties are saying some of the things he's been saying. He is, after all, in his own words "an eternal optimist".

Classic Brown

Nick Robinson | 09:03 UK time, Wednesday, 6 December 2006

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The real story of today's pre-Budget report will be the dog that didn't bark or, more precisely, the black hole that disappeared. This will be the first statement by the chancellor for some years in which the opposition and commentators will not be able to point gleefully to an embarrassingly large gap between the Treasury's predictions for borrowing and the outturn. If anyone can be gleeful today it will be Gordon "I told you so" Brown. He will have to correct a forecast - the one for economic growth - but, happily for him, it will be upwards.

Now, dogs that don't bark rarely make headlines which is why the chancellor's tried to write his own news coverage this morning by previewing his pledge to rebuild Britain's schools over the next 15 years. This is classic Brown. It is meant to highlight the choice he says will face us at the next election between, you guessed it, investment and tax cuts.

But today's announcement will, I suspect, prove to be more an ambition than a concrete pledge. Remember his promise to increase spending in state schools to the same level as in private schools? The Education Select Committee criticised that for its vagueness and un-measurability. That won't worry him. His objective is to get interviewers and voters alike to ask the Tories "do you want to re-build schools or to bribe us with tax cuts?"

The Conservatives are, I suspect, a key influence behind another of the chancellor's announcements today. Ever since the opposition announced that they supported a hike in "green taxes" it's been irresistible for the Treasury to take them at their word. A politically cost-free tax rise is pretty irresistible and has the added benefit that it limits the shadow chancellor's room for manoeuvre.

Having said all this I will be missing the PBR. I am on my way to the airport to fly to Washington to see the unveiling of the Baker/Hamilton Report into Iraq and watch how the prime minister reacts to it when he arrives in Washington DC tomorrow.

The news there is being made by the new defence secretary's shock announcement that we are losing the war in Iraq. It's a sign of the times that that's considered news. Surely "we are winning the war" should be the more noteworthy and extraordinary statement.

Nuclear theory

Nick Robinson | 13:28 UK time, Monday, 4 December 2006

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Just what were the Cabinet doing at their lunchtime meeting today? In theory they've been discussing whether to renew or replace our nuclear deterrent. I say "in theory" since it's hard to see what the point of the discussion was.

The White Paper outlining the government's proposals is being published two-and-a-half hours after the Cabinet meeting ended. An hour-and-a-half before that, journalists had been invited to read the document at a Ministry of Defence "lock-in" (so-called because you can read the document but not leave the building or use your phone or laptops until after it's published).

Is it just possible that the document had been printed before the Cabinet met? When I asked the Prime Minister's Official Spokesman, he insisted that he would not comment on "process".

This "process" matters, since ministers have made much of taking this vital and costly decision in an open, transparent and democratic way - they point out that the Cabinet have discussed the issue, there is a White Paper and there will be a vote in the Commons.

"So what?" you may ask. If you'd been around the last time a Labour government "updated" our deterrent you might think differently. Harold Wilson's government extended the life of Polaris with the Chevaline programme. Not only did he not have a vote, not only did he not even tell Parliament or the public, he didn't even tell the Cabinet. A handful of ministers took the decision which many members of the Cabinet and most MPs only learnt of when, years later, a Tory Government front bench spokesman revealed it.

Before today, Tony Blair's Cabinet did have discussion on what Number 10 calls "the context" of today's decision and Cabinet ministers have all had the opportunity to meet with the foreign and defence secretaries to discuss the likely contents of the White Paper.

There has been, however, no Cabinet debate about the government's detailed proposals. Why? Number 10 won't say. It's worth noting that the last time a decision was handled in this way was the assessment on whether to scrap the pound and join the Euro. The theory then was that it was easier to handle people's worries in individual meetings rather than around the Cabinet table.

"Independent" reports

Nick Robinson | 10:11 UK time, Friday, 1 December 2006

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And lo! A consensus is born. The era of pay as you drive can't be far away. First it was NHS funding, then climate change and . The Treasury loves to commission "independent" reports - whose conclusions it knows it will agree with - by businessmen with knighthoods.

Today Sir Rod follows Sir Nick (Stern) who followed Sir Derek (Wanless). Standby for more next week in the pre-budget report. I've no doubt that these men have done valuable reports but their real value to government is that - sad to say - voters are more likely to trust the conclusions of Sir Nobby this or that than they are those of the minister, his political adviser and teams of unnamed civil servants.

Usually little more than the headline gets remembered - the NHS needs more money or tackling climate change needn't stop us having fun or, today, road pricing will solve congestion and cut carbon dioxide emissions. Buried inside are often findings ministers ignore - for example, Sir Derek Wanless was robust on the need for NHS reform.

One thing you won't find in today's report, I was told, is references to "our transport system". The author of today's report on Britain's transport system now lives in Australia.

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