Election fever?
Funny place Westminster. The man who became prime minister rejecting the need for a general election to confirm him in office is, we are endlessly told, secretly considering holding - you guessed it - a general election. The signs are, it's said, all there.
This week we were informed in hushed tones of what was said at Cabinet. Normally the confidentiality of these discussions is fiercely protected. Not so this week. We were invited to report that Labour's general election co-ordinator had told his ministerial colleagues that - wait for it - the polls were looking good for the party and that - it gets better - I quote "because of the weakness of his position David Cameron has been forced to revert to right wing issues". Had those words been issued as a party press release most self respecting journalists would have put them in the file marked "propaganda" - known in my office as the bin.
Ah but, I hear you say, didn't I hear recently that Mr Miliband - that is the less famous of the two brothers - had begun drafting the next Labour manifesto? You did hear that but did you pause to consider what the words "begun drafting" might actually mean? Would typing the word "manifesto" at the top of a page qualify? There is, though, one word to describe the talk of a snap election - it's tosh.
Gordon Brown HAS laid plans for this autumn and those plans don't include an election. Key amongst them is October's comprehensive spending review which is meant not just to set the budget for every Whitehall department but to spell out the political dividing lines between Labour and the Tories. Mr Brown may have changed jobs recently but he's not changed his view of elections. The next - he believes - will be won as the last three have been - by posing a choice to the electorate between investment and cuts.
When Team Brown came to office, their planning assumption was for an election in spring 2009. The Brown bounce in the polls has put a spring into their step. It's allowed them to begin to dare to dream of what they might do if - and it's some if - that poll lead survives. They will, as all governing parties always do, then make sure they're ready for a vote whenever their leader thinks they can win one. Many Tories but very few Labour politicians I meet see that coming before next spring at the very earliest.
What then has all the fuss been about? In the main it's been a deliberate policy to unnerve the Tories - an attempt to confuse them about when to release their policies and when to spend their money too. There is, though, one respect in which election fever at Westminster is genuine.
Today sees the first electoral test since Gordon Brown became prime minister with in Ealing and in Sedgefield - two traditionally safe Labour seats. All the parties know that the results will be relentlessly examined for signs as to whether the Brown bandwagon is steamrolling on or beginning to stall; for whether David Cameron is faltering or recovering and for signs of life or perhaps terminal decay in Ming Campbell's leadership. That will keep politicians - and yes, we in the commentariat - guessing, calculating, plotting possible election dates. The rest of you can relax. You won't be asked to vote for some time yet.
I'm 
Comments
Maybe you ought to get out {of Westminster} more, Nick.
There are two other countries on this island, apart from England called Scotland and Wales.
You might have noticed that the Scottish Nationalists are doing rather well up there in Scotland.
Labour will have to wait until things turn sour in Scotland before they can impose themselves on us English again.
Westminster is truly another planet.
I think Gordon Brown should hold a general election immediatley - just so we can see who gets elected next Tory leader.
Brown would be wise to go to the country sooner rather than later. Why? Because after a few more sessions of PMQs even the densest voter will realise just how afraid of the Tories GB actually is.
His new tactic of having an apparently planted question asked so that he can have a lengthy exposition of policy (when he is *supposed* to be answering questions) and thus reducing the total number of questions, will only work for so long.
Why wasn't he up in the northeast the day after the floods rather than two weeks later? GB may be a great "back-room boy" but right now he represents our country and its people and he needs to be "front and centre".
Clunking fist? More like quivering jelly - and this is the man who "would be king"? If we get to see more of this indecisive dithering and shilly-shallying then expect a dip in Labour's poll ratings.
HELP!!!!!
Where can I find by-election coverage tonight????????????
Checked listings but NOTHING shows.
Brown's first electoral test and all soooooooo quiet? BIAS?
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I think GB is going to have to be on the top of his strategic game as it is a poltical tightrope he is walking like no PM before him. I feel he really does need to call a general election soon because not only does he arguably not have a mandate as PM, but he also has to contend with the growing handful of voices who rightly point to the inequality against the English in Westminister.
If Brown gambles on his bounce (in the polls that is) and wins the next general election he will have his PM mandate for the UK and be in a stronger position to shrug off the West Lothian question as far his own premiership is concerned - especially if an English majority votes for Labour.
Mr. Robinson
Are you SURE this is a ploy to unnerve the Tories?
Or perhaps it is aimed at the media to see how easily THEY are fooled ...
"because of the weakness of his position David Cameron has been forced to revert to right wing issues".
I cannot belive that the Tories are going through this again. If they do revert back to right wing issues and then, as an inevitable result, lose the next general election, its Tory party R.I.P.
Why would GB? Ok, he is more than likely to win an election if it were held tomorrow, but he still has 1/2 years that he can milk from this term in office first. Why risk it when the tories seem to be crippling themselves with confidence in DC in the tory party diminishing and his ability to wield centre ground AND centre right policies to woo the general public and middle england beginning to decay. The Lib Dems may have just found a lifeline with the unfairness of the gaping wealth gap between rich and poor, but they can't keep up forever, and and at the moment are more likely to take votes from the slightly cautious tories than a resurgent Labour. Labour are probably at the strongest point since their 2005 general election victory - and even since pre-Iraq war disputedly. The question is whether GB backs himself to be able to outline a set of propsals in his first year of his premiership that will make the country better, make good headlines, and by improving peoples lives and being fresh in their minds, bolstering his political capital, which he could then take advantage of next year when he should call a general election with a complete plan of action for winning it. He doesn't just need to win the next election, but he needs to increase Labours majority so that it can set an agenda of radical and long lasting reform - after all, I very much bout any modern political party can get 5 terms on the bounce, and the conservatives will soon recvoer from in my opinion their greatest defeat - winning the 1992 general election.
Gordon Brown, I recall from many comments made by political journalists, is a cautious man. He needs to be. If he calls an election and Labour doesn't win a majority of English parliamentary seats but keeps it majority at Westminster, the validity of his government will come under much more pressure.
Perhaps his thoughts about constitutional matters should include a federal UK. There is no reason why a Scot should not be PM under such an arrangement. At least then the calls for "English voters for English issues" cannot become an election issue.
What a load of Toss! Little Englanders come out in great numbers when there is ANY mention of a possible election to trumpt this election now rubbish. Get over yourselfs its called THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRATAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND this country we live in but then again its often the Tory's who forget why they stayed in power for so long with John Major was around was it not with the help of the Notheren Irish parties and the SCOTTISH TORY MPS (Malcolm Rifkind etc) they had at the time?
I believe you may be right Nick, but you can only live in hope that GB does call a general election. It would give the people of this country the chance to voice either their support or contempt for a government that doesn't give them a say in life altering decisions (EU constitution anyone?) or deal with ongoing issues that affect every constituency; hospitals, schools, crime etc.
The Clunking Fist to give us all a say in the coming months? I doubt it very much.
I like Charlie Peters' comment.
I have often thought that losing the 92 election turned out to be the best thing to happen to Labour as subsequent events put paid to the Tory mantra that only they were fit to run the economy. The wisps from the smoking gun that was Black Wednesday lingered long in the memories of the UK electorate and have probably only recently started to fade.
Obviously at the time Neil Kinnock might not have appreciated it, but time is a great healer I hope.
I hope that 'propaganda' goes in the recycling bin and not just the ordinary bin!
4......
Seems we have to make do with 45mins of these ....s
11pm ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳1 - A political review of the week presented by Andrew Neil and his resident helpers Michael Portillo and Diane Abbott.
Call this political coverage? Let's have some more phone photes for ....ing dancers - maybe one can .... on a politician. HEY! - maybe we could vote which one they .... on - Now THAT'S entertainment......NOT
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I wouldn't be surprised if Brown has had the prospect of a 2008 election in mind most of the time as one of his options... it doen't mean he'll use it, though.
I think I agree with you, Nick, when you say current election-rumour fluff may be directed at titillating journalists and mildly playing with the Tories. An autumn election seems highly unlikely - which raises the question of whether Brown's new 'spin-free' government could be more of a return to ministers and MPs taking a lead on spinning and leaking - rather than 'advisers' or civil servants?
Think the welsh and scottish posts on this blog may be right, though - any general election soon will have key battlegrounds in Wales and Scotland, where Labour have relied on their recent dominance to create the thumping great majorities since 1997. It'll be all about and the perceived success or failure of the nationalists in government / coalition.
But, if Scotland and Wales are possibly less safe for Labour, I think that in turn really means their campaign wil focus on swing seats in England - and that puts a whole load of pressure on the Lib Dems.
Gordon Brown would be well advised to learn from Jim Callaghan and John Major, both of whom would have benefited from going to the polls before the 'new leader' gloss rubbed off instead of dithering!
We were told that Mr Brown would bring an end to spin. His strategy in PMQs has been to divert attention from the bashing that Cameron has given him by planting questions which enable him to announce policy changes, and now we find that he's spinning like a dervish on the possibility of a snap election. Same old, same old!
News 24 usually stays on air late (i.e. doesn't hand over to ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ World) when there are by-elections. If you don't have digital it's streamed online now.
> You might have noticed that the Scottish Nationalists are doing rather well up there in Scotland.
Take a look at the results of the CONSTITUENCY vote though, rather than the LIST vote (which, of course, is irrelevant as far as Westminster goes) or the combination of the two.
It's worrying that many people still haven't grasped the fact the GB does have a mandate. In our democratic system we do not elect the Prime Minister but the party of power (through electing local representatives) whose leader then becomes the Prime Minister. GB has the same mandate the TB had after the last election - the Labour party majority in Westminster. If we go down the route of saying the majority of people vote for who they want to be Prime Minister then the logical extension of the statement
is that MPs have no mandate and should have just done what TB wanted as the only person with a mandate! Can't have it both ways.
if the result of the London by election is anything to go by, a general election by next spring is a certainty.Brown is desperate for his own mandate,and all PMs call electins when they think they will win.The tories are dead int he water and I just can't see them having any chance of winning the next election.
I think it may not be hot air ... snap elections dont cost so much money, snap election would be on the old boundaries not the new boundaries (which could be 20-30 seats better for Labour) ... we shall see!
Hi Nick
If Brown wants to unnerve the Tories with high ratings in the polls and threats of an election WHY doesn't the media push for one? Like when Blair said he would resign we all wanted a date.
PUSH IT Dont let them get away with games.
Well said Fraz-
The ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ do treat the public as if we are idiots, your reporting does seem a little bias and its so obvious and not subtle at all. What the report really did fail to mention was that these very safe Labour seats, gave gains to both Liberal and Conservative candidates, whereas Labour lost votes by upto almost 50%. It would seem that both Ming and David will not be shaking in their boots at all and see it as a good result in safe Labour seats and that Gordon Brown needs to worry a bit...
Nick R,
There was no more need for an election on Gordon Brown becoming PM than there has been in similar circumstances in the past. True or not true?
What is new about being endlessly told something alleged to be a secret of the PM if it is not a secret of the PM?
How hushed were the tones in which you were taken into the confidence of the Cabinet? How high or low was this on your scale of hush?
This is the ordinary stuff of politics being used to rubbish the PM. We have very recent experience of the extent to which character assassination can be carried in the UK � a disgrace to us all. Nevertheless a repetition is to be expected.
Nick I don't believe the opinion polls reflect the true position in the country...an understatement is there ever was one! While the Conservatives are still unpopular as a Party, Cameron is broadly liked by most people other than his own grass roots - Ironic isn't it! On the other hand Brown will be judged more from what Blair did for at least the next year or so. Although Brown has handled the early crisis of terrorism and floods well, the collective opinion of people as a whole is still anti-Labour regardless of the polls. If there were a popular opposition this would translate directly as votes to their benefit but as the Conservatives are still not trusted they will not capitalise as they could or should.
Well what about the Liberal-democrats I hear you say ...well what about them!!
If there were an Election in the Autumn, I believe the biggest winner would be Mr. (Mrs. or Miss) Apathy!
NICK
A week is a long time in politics, so 8 days is even longer. Think you should revisit your prediction on this one?
I'm only wondering, given some of the panicky Tories blogging here and elsewhere on your sites, if Mr Brown will think he has an advantage worth taking. I have to laugh at the idea that all the opinion polls are wrong and we all actually hate Labour, despite what we tell the pollsters.
If the PM is as shrewd an operator as you suggest, he will remember 1990 & the Tories suddenly recovering from meltdown over Poll Tax by one simple expedient-replacing a spent leader with a new one. Within a couple of months, most of the country was saying Margaret WHO? Believe me-been there, brought the T-shirt!
Mr Brown will also need to remember that, by doing the full 18/19 months until the 5 years were up,Mr Major nearly lost. That may be another reason for an autumn or spring election.
If 'twere so, it may be best done early-a cynic might say one before the Conference season would give the Tories a chance to elect another man of spin on a wow-factor speech to Conference. That's a cynic talking, of course, which might or might not reflect the views of the management!
Interest retes worldwide have been low which has allowed G Brown to create a mantle for himself that he has been a safe pair of hands with the economy. He was handed a very stable and healthy economy by the previous government. He had better call an election before we find out what a mess he has made of it all. We have the biggest trade deficit in history, and then of course there is all that PFI stuff that does not show up on the balance sheet. Interest rates worldwide are rising, debt is at an all time high, taxes are going up all the time, there is a new one out for the month of August if you are going to market with your house. Whatever else you say about our new PM he certainly keeps us on our toes. Be alert.
Brown has bombed - the future is Cameron's.