A brief guide to election night
The hardest thing on any election night is judging who won and who lost. What's more you have to decide whether that matters.
The answer is that do matter.
Of course these are not elections for the government.
Of course, not everybody has a vote.
Of course, opposition parties can do well on nights like this and still not get back into government.
However, it is not just political commentators who will look to tonight's results as a guide to the state of politics just under a year after Gordon Brown became prime minister.
The spin doctors will, of course, pick which ever figure helped to make their case. I will be looking at a number of different tests:
• National vote share - not the actual votes cast but a calculation of what share of the vote each party would have got if this had been a national election - the boffins call it the projected national share or PNS
• Councillors gained and lost
• Who wins London
Tonight cannot help but be a difficult night for Labour. The question is - how difficult? If Ken Livingstone holds on, if the party is not pushed into third place and if its vote share is above 26% (the lowest figure that Tony Blair got) expect Team Brown to look very relieved.
Tonight should be a good night for the Tories. The question is - will it be good enough? If Boris Johnson wins, if their vote share is comfortably above the 40% they've gained in the past two years and if they gain 200 or more new councillors they'll be well pleased whilst being well aware that Tony Blair did much better than that before he won his landslide victory in 1997.
Tonight could be a tricky night for the Lib Dems. The seats up tonight were last fought in 2004 when the party's opposition to the Iraq war meant they were riding high. Nick Clegg needs evidence - a council gained here or there; beating Labour into second place, a vote share of 27% or more - to prove that he's moving his party forward after the fall of Ming.
The problem tonight is that we will only know part of that story. 2/3rds of council results will be declared but the rest come on Friday. London will not even start counting until the morning. The picture will emerge in the way a jigsaw does. Occasionally, people will disagree about what the parts add up to.
Stay with me through the night as - working from the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s election studios - I pass on the latest titbits of information and feel free to tell me what you've picked up too.
Comment number 1.
At 1st May 2008, bigblogfan wrote:looking forward to it Nick!
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Comment number 2.
At 1st May 2008, dah1002 wrote:Any news about turnout? I've heard it's very low outside London.
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Comment number 3.
At 1st May 2008, bob willis wrote:The hardest thing to do on election night is to stay awake.
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Comment number 4.
At 2nd May 2008, EnfieldChris wrote:Good luck for your long haul Nick...
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Comment number 5.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:Sometimes it takes just a bit of humility to say "yes, we have got some things wrong and we are having the occational squable." Voters understand that, what they do not like are politicians coming on the telly and saying everything that has been seen and listened to is not really happening and that voters just do not understand.
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Comment number 6.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:You have to feel for Tessa Jowell, not the best at stringing a sentance together.
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Comment number 7.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:Well the LD's have their victory. Watch lots of LD's rush to Kinston on Hull tomorrow. Nick Clegg get on that train.....
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Comment number 8.
At 2nd May 2008, the-real-truth wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 9.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 10.
At 2nd May 2008, RevK wrote:So, Nick, can you ask which panto Jeremy V is soon to be in? Or is it Oklahoma?
seriously... good internet coverage from the bbc, the TV is not bad but i do miss peter snow's swingometer...
I do feel sorry for Tessa Jowell though.
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Comment number 11.
At 2nd May 2008, EnfieldChris wrote:Did Jeremy Vine make up that wild west segment as he went along? Did the editors not see it was a bit naff?
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Comment number 12.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:KeJaMo, why feel sorry for TJ? I am sure the Quango or what ever she will be offered will surely offset a couple of hours on the telly. I feel sorry for CK. What can he say? "It was better when I was in charge?"
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Comment number 13.
At 2nd May 2008, alexswanson wrote:not everybody has a vote
And conversely, many people not UK citizens do have a vote locally who would not if there was a general election.
if its vote share is above 26% (the lowest figure that Tony Blair got) expect Team Brown to look very relieved.
Why? Brown replaced Blair precisely on the basis that he would be able and popular. If he can't now clearly demonstrate this then the result is appalling. The fact that it might have been predicted in advance is beside the point.
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Comment number 14.
At 2nd May 2008, fedupmariner wrote:Nick,
Can't believe Tessa truly thinks the Labour MP's are NOT out of touch with joe public.
Does they not realise that those in work have broken backs regarding a never ending increase in total tax both direct and stealth.
The public trying to deal with huge rises across the board on all sorts of goods,services and basic food and fuel bills, that they see rising almost daily and yet the Labour Govt still use clearly fiddles inflation CPI figures.
We (middle England) look up and see the rich get richer paying/avoiding taxes and looking down at millions of non working,benefit claimers who in lots of cases are on 3rd generation non working,non contributing and we are funding them ...
I do not care (and many of my friends and family feel the same) what colour flag flys over Westminster but the party that cracks the above points, that realises that you can only squeeze so much from a pint pot and senses that MP's continuing to feed in the trough of high wages and huge expense claims, really is a kick in the teeth and hypocritical and indefensible, will get our vote.
Question is, is there a party out their tonight that does understand the British middle England just can't take anymore, we have nothing left to give???
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Comment number 15.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:Hi William (no notes I see again), hi Vince and hello the Milliband the younger?
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Comment number 16.
At 2nd May 2008, Roger596 wrote:Being a serious political issue...please ask the director to GROW UP and stop Jeremy Vine running thos banal and childish items...cowboys...Gordon Brown as Stalin/Mr Bean...it is so much dumbing down and totally inappropriate.
Conservatives to win....by a BIG margin!!!
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Comment number 17.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 18.
At 2nd May 2008, Charles_E_Hardwidge wrote:If you're suggesting the government should bring the rich to heel and force business to properly invest in job creation, I think, that's something the Labour Party could get behind but the thing is saying it and voting for it are two different things.
The asset stripping and consumerist years are over. They're gone and what we're left with is a headache of rich people with no loyalty pricing everyone out of the market, and entire communities on the scrapheap. But fixing this is doable.
Closing tax loopholes and bringing in law to bolster the power of ordinary people to influence governance is a good start. Perhaps, as this initiative is brought more closely into focus people will appreciate what Gordon Brown has done and can do.
All hail Blessed Leader!
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Comment number 19.
At 2nd May 2008, Jackturk wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 20.
At 2nd May 2008, honestMikeyb wrote:Just when we're getting some serious good quality political comment and debate.....please please please someone tell the powers that be that Jeremy Vine is awful... he just doesn't 'work' - on tv or radio..and he certainly isn't funny..or informative.
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Comment number 21.
At 2nd May 2008, EnfieldChris wrote:A word to all politicians...
Don't you realize how the voter's hackles rise every time one of you say
"What the results mean is that we have to listen to the voters blah blah blah"
The condescending tone this is always delivered in is the added blow on the bruise.
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Comment number 22.
At 2nd May 2008, Roger596 wrote:How nice to see Geoff Hoon squirm relative to the 20 point deficit....like all politicians he can not seem to face what is 'staring him in the face'......DEFEAT.....Hooray
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Comment number 23.
At 2nd May 2008, Jackturk wrote:Nick,
Earlier I asked why the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ is making it so difficult to make a comment by having to register?
Secondly, why is it that I can make a comment on an American news website such as ABC etc. without having to register and without it being edited or moderated, yet the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳, who are supposed to be fair and unbiased, pick and choose whose comments can be published?
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Comment number 24.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:He does drone doesn't he?
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Comment number 25.
At 2nd May 2008, Roger596 wrote:Miliband says the 'issue' was the 10p tax....he seems to forget about the gross rises in council tax...the high fuel prices and subsequent 'coining it in' VAT increase to the Government...MP's allowances, mortgage repayments....£50 billion to Northern Rock.... and the numerous other things which are 'actually' taking more and more cash from our pockets. MP's need to wake up to the fact that Joe Publics' pips are squeeking!!
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Comment number 26.
At 2nd May 2008, Roger596 wrote:'We must listen'...HA....1.8 million sign a petition against roads pricing and the Government ignore it...Thats listening??
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Comment number 27.
At 2nd May 2008, fedupmariner wrote:Charles,
"people will appreciate what Gordon Brown has done and can do".
Such as?
Removed the tax break on Pension funds which has caused meltdown and destroyed many a pension funds value built over decades by the often low paid.
Removed the ceiling on NI (ie a tax increase)
Removed the Married Mans tax allowance.
The loss of NH dentists.
GP's contracts that mean they are not open until 09.30 closed at 12.00, open at 14.00 close at 16.30!
Removed the average earnings link for pensioners.
Allowed a huge increase in open door immigration on the excuse it's good for the economy because they will take low paid jobs others will not touch, yet we have millions of our own claiming benefits that can work but will not!
My children now get only 6 weeks to learn to swim in school!
They will now have to take on huge debt in order to go on to higher/further education.
He claims to have hugely reduced child poverty, yet by giving all that extra money to non working parents simply means they top up their mobiles more often and subscribe to Sky TV!(yes in our area that is what they do with the rises!)
Claiming crime is DOWN when it simply (again in our area) it is people have stopped reporting criminal events because the police will not attend as crimes such as stolen bicycles, shed break ins etc are "minor" and they are bombarded with messages that the prisons are full and they are letting people out early!!
He continues to sell a lie that by saving for a pension you will be better off yet it is clear you will end up in a nursing home, means tested sat next to a guy that has never paid a penny into any pot who will eat the same food and watch the same TV as you, the life long pension saver!
Meanwhile, tax, work, stealth, work,put back retirement age,work....meanwhile the non working millions continue to be fed,clothed and housed for free and have no sense of moral responsibility to contribute apart from a conveyor belt of more and more children to follow in their footsteps...
He calls this a success on child poverty.
If you think Inflation is truly 2.5%, or that crime is down or that the NHS (incl dentists, GPs etc) are now a lot better and in safe hands then that is fine but I feel the "spin" on this washer is now to well warn to rely on any more...
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Comment number 28.
At 2nd May 2008, Jackturk wrote:Nick,
I'll try again to make my point and get it published without offending the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s arbitrary rules!
Ever since Tony Blair became Prime Minister, the Labour Party has swung steadily to the right and this has continued under Gordon Brown. Is it any wonder that traditional Labour voters have ditched the unprincpled Labour politicians who have continued to defend the inefensible. There is no doubt that the right wing is rapidly destroying the Labour Party
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Comment number 29.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:Jackturk, you can only employ so many public sector workers to vote for you b4 the people that actually generate money for the economy suddenly sit up and say "hang on, I work hard where is my reward, my final salary pension, my garanteed job?" I am not knocking public sector workers but there are alot more of them than there were in 97...work shouldn't be about activity and regulation but about acheivement and pride. Labour do not offer that.
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Comment number 30.
At 2nd May 2008, Roger596 wrote:Can't stand any more of Jeremy Vines 'childish' illustrations...TV OFF...please note Mr/Mrs/Ms Director.....
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Comment number 31.
At 2nd May 2008, plaistowpedro wrote:Its not the governments stearing of the economy that worries me thats well out of the governments hands.
We are such a global economy now no individual government can do much about the economy's survival.
The world bank, the Rothchildes, Roman Mr Chelskie, have more chance than what we do at elections.
I suspect that they have more say in who actually gets elected to but thats far more carefully orchestrated as to who gets to govern us.
The ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ is one of the few main steam media that has the ability to at least appear
independant and conducted a good fight over Dr Kelly .
Thanks for that at least you got Blair into court. Pity it was not as a war criminal.
You are exactly right nick about what happens in these elections is important but not for house prices and ten pence tax changes but the real . Political philosophy and how their policies are arrived at by whom and with what background agenda and the transparency of that I the real battle ground of national and international politics. The real change that is coming in this country in politics is that we will reach crunch point where the voting public will be as aware as the rest of old Europe and the new Europe who had the German experience and so are more politically acute.
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Comment number 32.
At 2nd May 2008, fedupmariner wrote:Nick,
I think Millibands reaction when told the Labour party now needs to start "listening" is breathtakingly arrogant and shows just out of touch MP's are.
He said that they (the Labour party) need to project a lot better THEIR message and ideas!
You need to advise him that the word "listen" (to our needs and ideas) does not mean "dictate" , "ignore" them or carry on as we have done because we know best!
Incredible.
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Comment number 33.
At 2nd May 2008, Lee H wrote:Who is Michael Portillo? Is he upset that the Conservative Party haven't offered him a job?
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Comment number 34.
At 2nd May 2008, saint-just wrote:À 3 heures du matin, pour une élection municipale parisienne qui se serait déroulé la veille, par exemple, le vainqueur serait déjà connu ...
Pourquoi n'est-ce pas le cas à Londres ?
At 3 am, the winner of a mayoral election in Paris would be already known. At least, within a very short fork.
What's wrong then ?
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Comment number 35.
At 2nd May 2008, joinupthedots wrote:Jakturk wrote (comment 28):
"I'll try again to make my point and get it published without offending the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s arbitrary rules!
Ever since Tony Blair became Prime Minister, the Labour Party has swung steadily to the right and this has continued under Gordon Brown. Is it any wonder that traditional Labour voters have ditched the unprincpled Labour politicians who have continued to defend the inefensible. There is no doubt that the right wing is rapidly destroying the Labour Party"
Please ask yourself, Jakturk, why this happems!!!
It is quite simple. For years both Tories and Labour have felt free to ignore their respective core voters whilst they go in search of those key swing voters in marginals.
To do this they head resolutely towards the middle ground, knowing that they can ignore their core voters without any penalty. Why? Because with no proportionality in our electoral system to worry about, it simply does not matter whether the Labour voter of Merthyr Tydfil turns out to vote or not. Or the Tory voter in leafy Surrey.
The focus groups, the research, the effort, the policies even are driven by the need to please this narrow set of people.
No wonder people feel disenfranchised. Because they are. The statistic of higher turning away from Labour in their heartlands shows that the worm is beginning to turn, but it is not enough.
Anyone interested in the survival of our democracy and of pluralism and responsiveness in our national politics must see that PR is absolutely essential.
There are plenty of options to achieve proportionality, and there can be a discussion about that - oh and please a rational discussion based on what is best for the people and not best for the vested interests within the parties.
But the existing self-serving denial of democracy and debate is not an option.
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Comment number 36.
At 2nd May 2008, Ramilas1 wrote:These results prove, once again, what a great strategist Tony Blair was.
He held on to the controls until the precipice was just in view, and there was no tun off to take.
Then he removed the ignition key, engaging the steering lock as he did so, and passed the driving duties to the long time co-pilot.
We have all been mere passengers in the whole scenario, and his 'legacy' is now almost complete - The only true leader of New Labour!
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Comment number 37.
At 2nd May 2008, beltosfun wrote:Any party ignoring the grey vote do so at their peril.
That's why Southampton went to the Tories
They have been there before seen all the promises and now deciding what's in it fo me.
As a pensioner paying all my taxes for years am appaled at the level of pension I receive compared to the imigrants who arrive on the doorstep and automatically recieve a far greater portion of the national wealth after contributing nothing and taking all.
Dick Whittington was a few years too early
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Comment number 38.
At 5th May 2008, dennisjunior1 wrote:Nick,
your work hard during the elections in the United Kingdom.....
Thanks....
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