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"Recession - it's official. The 64 trillion dollar question (as we always seem to talk trillions now!) is how long will it last. Of course, I don't know. But one useful thing to do is to look at the lessons of history. According to Capital Economics the average for a post-war recession is 6 quarters or 18 months. The last one, in 1990-92 lasted two years, but by historic standards it was not very deep. The total fall in output from the peak to the trough was 2.5%. The previous recession, from 1979 to 1981 was worse with a fall in output of 6.1 per cent.

But history can only take you so far. Many previous recessions have been the consequences of an inflationary boom. This time we had a nasty bout of inflation last year. But the real cause has been the banking crisis. And to have the banks in such a weak condition at the start of a recession poses many new problems. The other great danger is that this recession has hit almost all the world's most developed economies at more or less the same time. So there is little chance of being pulled out of recession by strong growth elsewhere.

So what shape will the recession have? People often talk about a U-shape, or a V-shape or even an L-shape. The early 1990s was probably a flattened U. Sadly, V's seldom happen because the blow to confidence from the fall is so severe that it does not come back quickly. An L is too pessimistic. Lots of things have gone wrong. Lots of mistakes have been made. But the mistakes can - eventually - be put right. I think the shape might be a bit like a tick from a rather bored teacher marking the homework - a sharp down down followed by a gradual rise.

But as I said hinted at the the beginning, anyone who thinks they know for sure probably does not know very much."

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