2010 - elections, economy and expectations
It's Mosstradamus time (groan). Just what lies in store in the political year ahead?
One thing is for sure - 2010 will be a general election year.
For a while, some have assumed a Conservative victory (even in some Labour circles to be honest).
But any assumptions are dangerous for the Tories. The party needs the second-biggest swing since the Second World War to win a majority - 1997 was the biggest.
In truth, it may be easier for Labour to lose their majority than the Conservatives to win one, and a hung parliament is a real possibility for the first time since the 1970s.
There are several battle fronts in the North East and Cumbria.
Cumbria, in particular, will see some fierce contests.
The Conservatives think they have chances in Carlisle and Copeland, and they would love to take Westmorland and Lonsdale back from Lib Dem Tim Farron.
Barrow is also very vulnerable, particularly due to the retirement of John Hutton.
In the North East, Tynemouth is the top Tory target, but they also fancy their chances in Stockton South.
They're pushing hard in the more challenging new Sunderland Central seat, but believe they're making progress.
They'd love to take Berwick too but Alan Beith looks like an immovable object.
Labour also face threats from the Lib Dems too, in the City of Durham and Newcastle East and North.
Whatever the result there will be change as so many of our MPs are standing down - a new generation will need to try and rebuild trust in politicians.
Regardless of which party wins there'll be new MPs in Barrow, Carlisle, Penrith and the Border, Hexham, Wansbeck, Newcastle North, Newcastle Central, Tyneside North, all three new Sunderland seats, Easington, Durham North West, Darlington and Stockton North.
And if Labour lose, South Shields' Foreign Secretary David Miliband will surely be competing to be the new leader.
A Tory victory would also bring the Middlesbrough-born Shadow Minister of Teesside Greg Clark into the Cabinet, and the likes of Rory Stewart might expect some role if as likely he becomes the MP for Penrith and the Border.
Scarborough and Whitby's Robert Goodwill will also be a minister.
We will then find out exactly what the Tories will do about the Regional Development Agencies - they'll be scrapped, but what will they be replaced by?
And don't forget the local elections - there'll be a third of the council chambers up in all the Tyne and Wear authorities, as well as in Hartlepool, Harrogate and Carlisle.
The fate of Redcar's steelworks could provide a political sting for Labour too.
The mothballing of Corus is due at the end of January.
Figures like Middlesbrough's mayor Ray Mallon and football club owner Steve Gibson are threatening electoral implications for Labour's Teesside MPs.
There'll certainly be all eyes on the wider economy to see if any signs of recovery build or founder.
Nissan will be looking hard at demand for its cars when the Scrappage Scheme comes to an end. The VAT cut will also disappear on January 1.
Unemployment is expected to lag behind any recovery so we will almost certainly see more significant job losses well into 2010.
The full impact of the Corus closure on Teesside will be hard to gauge until the jobs finally go, but it's hard to see how it will recover very soon.
But there'll also be attempts to reshape the local economy. Electric cars at Nissan, and giant wind turbine-building on the Tyne offer a glimpse of a different future.
Don't write off the past though. Carbon capture may revive coal power in the region, while there should be more news on new nuclear power stations for West Cumbria and Hartlepool.
Afghanistan will never be too far from the headlines in our region too, as we have such a significant number of our young men and women in the Forces.
And then there's always the unexpected - the natural disasters.
Cumbria will hope to avoid them. It'll be a tough start to 2010 for flood-hit Cockermouth and Workington.
The real test of the initial political goodwill shown to West Cumbria will be whether the area can repair its economy and infrastructure.
And how quickly people can get back into their homes. Those flooded out will certainly hope to have put the experience behind them by 2011, but the next year will almost certainly be dominated by that day of rainfall in November.
2009 will still have a lasting legacy.
I'll be back soon to report on everything that's going on politically, but I am indulging in the luxury of an extended break to mark a significant birthday.
Yes, that's right of course. You guessed it. I'm 21!
Happy New Year!
I'm Richard Moss, the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s Political Editor for the North East and Cumbria. Welcome to my irreverent - but hopefully insightful - northern take on reporting politics for Look North and the Politics Show.
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