Expenses, economics and our willingness to vote
Some of my colleagues have been asking me recently what they think will happen to turnout at the forthcoming election.
Many of those who ask assume that the expenses scandal will persuade more people to sit on their hands and refuse to vote.
While it's possible that some will do just that, I'm not sure that we will see a collapse in turnout; in fact we may even see a small increase in voting.
There was despite the sense it was a foregone conclusion - related perhaps to a rise in postal voting.
The latest polls suggest the election will be a closely-contested and I think that will persuade more people to vote than in 2001 and 2005.
also suggests voters have been increasingly willing to turn out in close contests where they think the result matters.
People will be forced to make a clear choice at this election, and more than in 2005, they know their vote could make a difference.
And rather than abstaining in protest, many people might be motivated to vote by the expenses saga.
They may want to punish a sitting MP, or put two fingers up to the political establishment by voting for one of the smaller parties or an independent single-issue candidate.
And then there may also be people who feel more personally-affected by the political process this time.
In the economic good times people may take prosperity for granted and assume that it won't matter who's in charge.
In the bad times, they may look more closely at who they think they can trust to restore the economy to health.
They may want to punish the politicians in charge for their plight, or fear that it might be even worse under their rivals.
Of course all this is supposition. There are still a significant number of people who will remain politically disengaged, who will be convinced their vote will make no difference, and believe politics changes nothing.
That is their right - but I suspect at least they'll be slightly fewer in number in 2010.
Talking of MPs, I'm off to London today to talk to some of those who are retiring - there were plenty to choose from!
I'll be interested to hear how they think the public perception of politicians has changed during their time in parliament.
I'm Richard Moss, the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s Political Editor for the North East and Cumbria. Welcome to my irreverent - but hopefully insightful - northern take on reporting politics for Look North and the Politics Show.
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