³ÉÈËÂÛ̳

It may feel like it began several months ago, but at last it's official. A General Election has been called.

Now it's fair to say the North East and Cumbria is not overflowing with marginal seats.

And if you look at the last two General Elections here, they've been some of the least eventful ever.

Only two seats have changed hands since 1997. The Conservatives recaptured Scarborough and Whitby from Labour in 2001, the Lib Dems taking Westmorland and Lonsdale from the Tories last time.

And it is perfectly possible that nothing much may change again.

But boundary changes, and the gradual decline in the Labour vote since 1997, do at least offer us the keenest contests since then.

A look at the electoral arithmetic suggests the area will play a part in deciding who forms the next government.

Nationally, the Conservatives need to get around a 7% swing from Labour to get a Commons majority.

Transfer that to this region, and there are four seats the Conservatives must win - Tynemouth, Stockton South, Copeland and Carlisle.

And of course they are the seats the Labour must hang onto in order to give themselves the best chance of either preventing a Tory victory or retaining power.

The Tories are not the only ones with their eyes on Labour seats though.

The Lib Dems need to win the City of Durham from them to show that they're moving forward from 2005. But they're also pushing hard in Newcastle East and Newcastle North, aided by boundary changes which have made them both winnable.

But they may have to fight on two fronts.

A Conservative revival threatens their existing seats.

Westmorland and Lonsdale is very marginal, but they will also be targeting Berwick, Harrogate and the new seat of Outer York, which on 2005 votes is notionally Lib Dem.

So there's plenty to play for.

Labour need to hold onto their heartland to give themselves the best chance of retaining power. The Conservatives need to make gains here to prove they can win in the North. The Lib Dems need to turn a gradual growth in votes into gains this time.

And let's not forget the smaller parties. UKIP, the Greens and the BNP may not win seats but an increase in their support could see them play a critical role in influencing results.

There'll also be a number of Independent candidates keen to take advantage of the expenses scandal to tempt people away from the traditional political parties.

All in all, this certainly looks likely to be the least predictable election since 1992. We could see a dozen seats change hands, but equally we could see no change at all.

But that'll be down to you, the voters, to decide. For months we've been talking about it, now, you have the power.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• |
• |
• - What's this?