Why police cuts could hit hardest in poorer areas
Some police forces could suffer more from government cuts than others.
On the face of it last week's Spending Review seemed to hit all our police forces equally.
But it may be that some prove more equal than others.
What the Chancellor announced was a 20% cut in the government funding for every force over the next four years.
That sounds like equality until you realise that some forces are more dependent on their government grant than others.
Police funding comes mostly from two sources - government grant and the locally-raised council tax.
And for the most part it's forces from more deprived areas that are most dependent on the government grant.
So while get only 51% of their funding from the government grant, get 87%.
So while a 20% cut in that government funding removes around 10% of Surrey's budget, it takes approximately 17.5% of Northumbria's out.
And there are significant variations in the region too.
fares best as it only gets 56% of its funding from the Government, meaning it may only lose around 11%.
, which relies on the Government for 67% of its budget, could lose 13.5%.
and both get 76% of their funding from the Government, so could lose around 15%, and, as I have already mentioned, Northumbria lose 17.5%.
As yet our forces have not had the details of their settlement, so it's possible that some adjustment may yet be made.
But if not, the worst-affected forces could well end up being those in the most deprived areas, with the highest crime rates.
Of course, the various police authorities could try and plug the funding gap by raising the amount they get from the other major element of their funding - council tax.
The only problem - the Government wants to deliver a council tax freeze next year, so may make it very hard for the police to do that.
What impact will the cuts have then? It's something we're looking at on the Politics Show this weekend in County Durham.
Should we expect a surge in crime? Perhaps not. I've been talking to a criminologist who says there appears to be no link between police numbers and crime levels. Find out more on Sunday at 12pm, ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳1.
I'm Richard Moss, the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s Political Editor for the North East and Cumbria. Welcome to my irreverent - but hopefully insightful - northern take on reporting politics for Look North and the Politics Show.
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