North East economic reports - half empty or half full?
Half full, or half empty? Your view of this beer glass might also reflect your take on the region's economic prospects.
Two assessments of the state of the North East economy have been released this week.
On the face of it, they sound like they come to contradictory conclusions - one gloomy, one optimistic.
But in actual fact, it's more a case of whether you see your glass as half empty or half full.
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It used the University's economic model of the region to assess the likely impact of the Spending Review.
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While most of those will be in the public sector, the study predicts that 20,000 will be private sector job losses connected to the retrenchment in government spending.
It says sectors like construction, manufacturing, retail and financial services could be badly hit.
And it estimates the cuts will wipe £1.8bn of potential growth from the North East economy over the next five years.
The other piece of research was released by Conservative Graham Robb's .
(It doesn't list the negative ones).
And it's found evidence of what it calls a "discernible" private sector recovery.
In all, it says more than 10,000 jobs have been created in the North East over the last few months.
It also found there'd been £2.2bn of new investment in business, and £767m worth of new orders placed.
Stockton South Conservative MP James Wharton believes a sustained private sector recovery is underway.
He sees the emergency budget as a positive - keeping interest rates low and giving businesses tax breaks.
He says: "We all know the region's economy is in a state of transformation... as the public sector makes changes, however, the private sector is doing its bit and we can see that growth is taking place."
So who's right?
Actually both could be right.
The Durham University study also identifies a significant private sector recovery.
It also expects that to continue over the next five years.
But it suggests that recovery will be slower and more painful because of the public sector cuts.
In reality, it's probably too early to say where we are heading.
There are signs of recovery, but the heaviest impact of public sector cuts are yet to hit.
It may take another 12 months before we know whether the optimists or pessimists were right.
I'm Richard Moss, the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s Political Editor for the North East and Cumbria. Welcome to my irreverent - but hopefully insightful - northern take on reporting politics for Look North and the Politics Show.
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