³ÉÈËÂÛ̳

Ìý

Commentators consider the implications of cables released by Wikileaks which show that Chinese leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally.

the Wikileaks revelations are not new news:

"This is an interesting revelation but it is hardly new information, at least not among Korea- and China-watchers. We have heard of similar characterizations of the Chinese mindset in recent months from Western diplomats, describing Chinese frustrations with their North Korea allies. This document simply confirms that.
Ìý
"China's frustrations have come out in the open a few times. When North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2009, China broke ranks with North Korea and voted in the U.N. Security Council in favor of imposing sanctions on its North Korean allies. In the past, China, which wields a veto vote as a permanent member of the Security Council, would have simply abstained and let the resolution pass."

the cables are more ambiguous than some have suggested:

"The cables about North Korea - some emanating from Seoul, some from Beijing, many based on interviews with government officials, and others with scholars, defectors and other experts - are long on educated guesses and short on facts, illustrating why their subject is known as the Black Hole of Asia. Because they are State Department documents, not intelligence reports, they do not include the most secret American assessments, or the American military's plans in case North Korea disintegrates or lashes out. They contain loose talk and confident predictions of the end of the dynasty that has ruled North Korea for 65 years."

Editor of chinadialogue.net that the revelation that China might accept the idea of reunification under South Korea could make an unstable situation worse:

"Beijing has proved unequal to the task of keeping North Korea in line, or, as yet, of persuading it to follow China's transition to a market economy. China is regarded as the last country that has influence in Pyongyang, but the leaked cables confirm how limited that influence is.
Ìý
"Beijing has been unwilling to put real muscle into its persuasion, pointing to North Korea's desire to talk on equal terms with the US. China has facilitated the now stalled six-party talks, but has shied away from enforcing responsible behaviour or allowing the regime to collapse. The US, in turn, is reluctant to concede North Korea's demands for recognition and pleads with China to get its junior ally under control. Now the WikiLeaks revelation that China is beginning to accept the once unthinkable alternative - a reunification under South Korean control - may make an unstable situation worse."

Former foreign secretary Sir that the leak may have put back a shift in Chinese policy by years:

"The tragedy of these Wikileaks is that if China is contemplating what would be a historic change in its attitude to North Korea and possible support for reunification, this premature revelation - because of statements made to an American diplomat which now appear in the world's press - that would have put that back by years. That shows the damage that can be done by unauthorised leaks of highly sensitive information and private conversations between diplomats."

In contrast, the that we should not assume that the release of this information is harmful.

"Today's revelation from the embassy cables that North Korea had lost its strategic value to China as a buffer state between their forces and US ones, and that Beijing would accept the reunification of the peninsula under Seoul's leadership, should send shivers down the spine of the right person - the ailing dictator Kim Jong-il. Pyongyang could be about to lose its only insurer. Long before last week's lethal shelling of a South Korean island, it is clear from the private views of senior Chinese officials that their strategic asset had turned into a major liability... If the leaking of these cables was read and absorbed by North Korea's ageing generals, this would be an example of disclosure instilling realism into a military dictatorship which so clearly lacks it."