- Matt Frei
- 19 Oct 06, 08:33 PM
Comparisons with Vietnam have been circling around the Iraq war like linguistic vultures, thanks to a typical Washington chain reaction. Tom Friedman, the respected New York Times columnist who originally supported the Iraq war and has been tying himself in knots ever since, wrote a comparing the dreadful events of the last week with the Tet offensive in the Vietnam War. Fine.
But then ABC's affable asked none other than the commander-in-chief about the comparison, and to everyone's surprise the president - who is supposed to be in a state of denial - almost blithely said: "He may be right…." and then moved on swiftly to firmer ground about al-Qaeda and its desire to see the US quit Iraq.
Vietnam rhetoric is not helpful in the weeks before the mid-term elections. Nor is it accurate. First, there are the differences in casualties. At this stage in the Vietnam war, America had lost about 20,000 men. Iraq has cost the US troops at the last count. But no war, including this one, can be measured solely by the number of casualties. The key equation is the sacrifice of casualties measured against the perceived benefits of the conflict. Is it worth it?
The answer in World War II - in which just over 400,000 Americans died - was clearly yes. Even in Vietnam the withering of public support was slow. It took about 20,000 dead Americans for the public to turn against the war. In Somalia in 1993 it took only 18 dead Americans and two downed Black Hawk helicopters to see the troops heading for their boats.
Remember also that today's US troops in Iraq are professionals - and volunteers. Their tragedies are felt by a relatively small proportion of the population. Vietnam was fought by hundreds of thousands of hapless conscripts who were hopelessly out of their depth in the jungles of South-East Asia.
So here's my conclusion: Yes, this war is unpopular. A solid majority of Americans have lost faith in it and doubt it can be won. And yet there are only a handful of anti-war protesters outside the White House. Jane Fonda is nowhere to be seen and millions have not poured into the Mall to demand that the troops come home. From Hollywood to the Democratic Party to the prevailing opinion in the streets, we are all caught in the headlights: loath to stay in Iraq and afraid to leave.
This is the world post 9/11. We are fighting a "global war on terror". Polls show that most Americans believe the stakes of abandoning Iraq are too high, that the US has a responsibility to try to fix the problem -"we broke it, we own it!" - and that abandoning it could fuel a regional war with even more dire consequences. So the pain threshold in Iraq is surprisingly high, especially if it's not your child getting killed.
Matt Frei is the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s senior North America TV correspondent.
- Lourdes Heredia
- 19 Oct 06, 05:02 PM
Making assumptions can be dangerous. Recently I made a big one and it was a Hispanic student, Lorena, who told me how wrong I was.
I asked her how the heated would affect her vote - and got an earful in response.
"I am fed up with stereotypes. I do not care a bit about immigration issues. I am a US citizen and I am very proud to be here.
"I don't care too much about one law or the other. That wouldn't change my life or my family’s opportunities. I am a second-generation [American] and frankly, I might feel sympathy for the [new immigrants] who are struggling, but… not really," she said.
Like many other voters, Lorena is more concerned about stuff that affects her everyday life. She doesn't like the anti-immigrant rhetoric and wouldn't vote for representative or a senator who says she, or her parents, do not have the right to be here.
But when she chooses her candidate it is more about "bread-and-butter" issues. Is she going to be able to get a proper education? Are her parents going to have a good health insurance when they're old? Are her kids going to be able to go to school and be safe?
According to the last research conducted by the , the Hispanic share of the total US electorate is expected to grow this year to 8.6%, compared to 8.2% in 2004 and 7.4% in 2000.
That means this year there will be between 10 and 12 million registered Hispanic voters – more than enough to make a difference in the election (and if you have any doubts, just ask .)
Many Hispanics are swing voters, so both parties have to try to attract them – but neither party should think immigration will be the issue that will swing the Latino vote their way.
Lourdes Heredia is Washington correspondent for the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s Latin American service.
- The Reporters
- 19 Oct 06, 03:49 PM
USA Today: Old-fashioned television advertising remains the "nuclear weapon" of politics, campaigners say, even in a multi-media age.
Washington Times: Conservative voters may stay at home on Election Day, disillusioned with both President Bush and Congress.
New York Times: Election officials across the country are bracing for confusion due to new voting machines.
- Justin Webb
- 19 Oct 06, 10:55 AM
A visit to Philadelphia to witness the bare-knuckle fight to keep one of the best known social conservatives in the Senate. is in trouble and has the slightly haunted look of a man who doesn’t quite know where it all went wrong.
We hear him on conservative talk radio in the car with the host praising him for his lusty singing from the conservative hymn-sheet but the man himself, on a crackly phone line, is lukewarm in response. The reason perhaps: we catch up with him in Philadelphia (no conservative bastion, let's face it) where a new-look Rick is talking about his ability to keep jobs and work across party lines. Abortion: unmentioned. Gays: unmentioned. Iraq: unmentioned.
Still he has my vote on one count - after the event he stood and took my questions about whether the social agenda was done for, with good humour and good grace. A lesser man, faced with a ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ reporter with an off-message agenda, would have walked off. He answered four questions politely and fully. Good for him.
Justin Webb is the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳'s chief North America radio correspondent.
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