³ÉÈËÂÛ̳

How far will the ideals and convulsions sweeping through Arab states penetrate into sub-Saharan Africa? Khartoum has already felt a few ripples. So who's next - if anyone?

, I think we can rule out Somalia. Mogadishu, in its eccentric way, may be more plugged into cyberspace that most cities on the continent. But how do you rebel against violent anarchy?

. But the army seem unlikely to change sides, and .

Further south, Zimbabwe's ever-embattled prime minister . But the police and army - still loyal to President Robert Mugabe - seem fully capable of preventing any awkward gatherings in Harare. As one political analyst here put it to me - "people in Zim know the police will shoot them".

Which brings us - with plenty of omissions - to the far end of the continent. South Africa is nothing like Egypt, but the Arab flu has given local commentators here plenty to sneeze about. Political commentator Moeletsi Mbeki . Another commentator, Jacob Dlamini, . But this handy website offers a different, statistics-based, and sometimes more optimistic perspective. One of its authors, Robert Mattes, cites the "safety valve of elections", both here and across much of the continent, as a key inoculating factor against Arab-style unrest. South Africa is often gripped by violent protests linked to poverty and service delivery failures, but "people don't question the legitimacy of the government here. It's just that the government isn't listening," says Professor Mattes.

By the way - if you haven't already, do read this excellent analysis by a colleague of the social dynamics behind what's going on in Egypt and elsewhere. Of the 20 points listed, how many are now widespread in sub-Saharan Africa? Not enough, I reckon.

• Bookmark with:
• |
• |
• - What's this?