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Come back at 5pm and I promise you'll be awash with figures. It's that rare day - the day we publish the results of an opinion poll in Wales, on the future of Wales.

I wonder though if it's a good day as well, to reshuffle your entire cabinet? Nick Bourne apparently thinks so. Welsh Conservatives "have nothing to say on the matter" but there are loud - and extremely angry - rumours coming from the third floor that there's a major reshuffle of the shadow cabinet underway.

Let's put it like this. It sounds as though is no longer in the health job. Having refused the education portfolio, I'm not clear he's in any job at all.

If the news is a surprise to you, more significant is that it's turning out to be a big surprise to those involved too. There are Tory AMs seething, describing the mood as "appalling" and all the signs that today may turn into a day of long knives.

UPDATE:

Expect an official announcement tomorrow morning.
Expect a pattern of out with the old, in with the new.
Expect answers to some obvious questions: has Tory leader Nick Bourne done enough to pacify the young guns who were out to get him? Will Jonathan Morgan regret not having plunged the knife in deeper when he had half a chance?
And expect confirmation of an appointment that would put that of a vegetarian as Agriculture Minister in the shade: a former fuel protester taking on the transport portfolio?

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