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YOU know what 'aura' is, don't you?

Ah yes, in Wales we're very good at piling on the pressure, stoking the fire, talking up your side's chances, . Appearing confident, as if that trophy's yours is half the psychological battle after all. Confident, unafraid, on course - good. Cocky, complacent, dismissive, in the bag - bad.

Ok, so you know where I'm going with this ... December 1st, Labour leadership, the Rhodri Morgan Trophy that is the First Minister's job.

The battle's moved from the open territory of supporting nominations - and I use the word 'open' cautiously and with much healthy scepticism - to the closed world of phone polling. Would you expect any one of the three camps to let it be known their phone polls are indicating their candidate is stuffed? No, thought not but just to pause a moment here.

The calls are going in at quite a rate - an impressive rate that would rival any recent election campaign run by Welsh Labour. If that's true - and I've no reason to doubt it but no ability to check it - then that raises some pretty fundamental questions about campaigning capabilities, who has them, who hasn't. You might wonder how on earth that kind of call volume is being achieved, to use the jargon ... but let's not get side tracked.

All three camps say things are looking good. Let's not be cynical either and dismiss that with a 'they would, wouldn't they?'

Huw Lewis knows he needs massive support from the membership. So far in this race, his team have not oversold their candidate's position. They can add up AM, MP and official union support as well as the next man and they can see their man is running in third. But these days they look very happy with what they're hearing. Let me throw caution to the wind and add another 'very' to that happy.

They need the membership to throw their weight behind Huw Lewis big time or he's first out and our sole concern is which of the other two get his supporters' second preference. That must surely be the concern of the other two candidates.

As I say, the Huw Lewis camp are looking more than happy with what they're being told. Only they know who's doing the telling and how reliable their support is.

The bookies aren't paying out but they're clear who wins: Carwyn Jones. The mantra in his camp? Confident, never, ever complacent. Nothing's in the bag but if you push them on phone polling ... Do the maths. Add up the support that's already been pledged by his fellow AMs, MPs, the sole MEP and he's already smiling - happy in the knowledge he's ahead in that electoral college. But the other two bits of the jigsaw? They seem confident (never complacent) that Carwyn (note the use of the first name at every opportunity) won't do at all badly there.

Add to that the support being pledged by members on the other end of a phone-line and you may think he's laughing.

And yet, and yet, and yet. The Hart camp give a pretty good impression of quiet confidence themselves. It's a campaign team jam-packed with people who, how do I put it, understand the Labour party through and through. When they talk about doing the maths, you may be baffled as to how they work it out but you're left in absolutely no doubt that they themselves are anything but baffled and anything but discouraged. As one trusted and objective voice put it - Carwyn's the favourite but Hart's the value bet.

There are plenty of rumours from left field. This morning's? Irene James, having nominated Huw Lewis, will vote for Edwina Hart. It's a story that did the rounds some weeks ago. Here, I was told, was the confirmation. "Cast iron".

Not so, apparently. In the past few days the AM for Islwyn has sent out a letter affirming her support for Huw Lewis. This is a "bizarre and baseless rumour" I'm told.

The upshot with a month to go?

Watch closely on Saturday. The crowd will love the pre-match posturing. The commentators and headline writers will analyse its impact on the match. Come Sunday we'll care about just one thing: who won.

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