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Unlikely bedfellows

Brian Taylor | 18:06 UK time, Thursday, 30 April 2009

An intriguing vote at Holyrood on finance.

The SNP and the Tories both voted to condemn what they say will be "severe cuts" in Scottish public spending as a consequence of the Chancellor's budget.

Why? Because they have a shared objective, albeit different reasons for sharing.

Quite understandably, SNP ministers want to highlight cuts which they say are pending: £500m next year with worse to come.

Equally understandably, they want to pin the blame on Labour.

As do the Tories. They hope and expect to replace Labour next year as the UK Government.

And they want to enter power, if they do, with the voters regarding Labour, not the Tories, as culpable for what David Cameron has said will be an "age of austerity."

In the Holyrood debate, Labour maintained its line: that Scotland's budget will increase fractionally in real terms, if one factors out the shift in capital expenditure caused by bringing forward projects in an effort to counter recession.

They argued further that Scotland had benefited from Treasury initiatives such as the cut in VAT - and the cash support for the banks.

Consequently, they offered the spending package a "welcome".

However, by a majority, MSPs preferred to heed the case that there are big cuts pending, with worse to come.

During the debate, the Tories cited research prepared by the Centre for Public Policy for Regions.

CPPR has gained a reputation for hard-edged, dispassionate research.

This is an academically rigorous organisation featuring, among others, a former Labour special adviser on the economy.

They say that, in real terms, the Scottish Departmental Expenditure Limit (DEL) will shrink by between £2.1bn and £3.8bn between 08/09 and 13/14.

And that, beyond that, the prospects remain decidedly challenging.

Big numbers - with potentially big implications. And big thinking ahead at Holyrood.

You may remember at the time of the stushie over John Swinney's budget that there was talk of reforming the process by which spending plans are determined, to reflect the gravity and detail - plus the minority status of the SNP administration.

Such talk has not gone away.

Indeed, behind the scenes in Andrew Welsh's finance committee and elsewhere, there is considerable work going on.

Realistically, of course, it is not possible to exclude entirely the last-minute haggling which customarily attends political compromises.

Plus of course partisan politics will always intrude, especially with European Elections due in June and a UK General Election due next year.

But perhaps it might be possible to confront, collectively, the spending challenges ahead.

PS: Welcome your comments as ever. Would remind you, gently, that it is one of the house rules that responses should not stray from the particular topic on offer.

This is designed to ensure that, in the interests of all readers, there can be focused, substantive debate.

Over a prolonged period, it means that the broadest possible range of topics can be aired.

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