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Euro crisis unresolved

Gavin Hewitt | 16:33 UK time, Friday, 17 December 2010

To be fair to the EU's leaders as they headed out of Brussels the expectations for their last summit of 2010 had been low.

The tensions and differences between them over how to solve the crisis in the eurozone had been laid bare.

They were still meeting when Moody's delivered its own verdict by slashing Ireland's credit rating. A harsher judgement may yet follow.

The focus of the summit was creating a permanent safety net for the euro. But that will run after 2013 - and as I wrote in a previous blog, the fire is burning now. None of the leaders knows what the state of the euro will be in six months, let alone in over two years.

The hope was that the new mechanism would, in the words of European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, demonstrate "a common resolve" to fight for the single currency. It was hoped the mechanism would boost confidence.

But the summit has not addressed the fundamentals. Even those countries like Greece and Ireland that have been bailed out remain in dire straits. While embracing new austerity measures - to reduce their deficits - how will they find the growth to both repay the loans and to reduce their debt loads?

Many economists don't believe the sums add up. They believe the debt loads are unsustainable. And then they cast an eye over other countries' spreadsheets and question how they will meet their funding needs for 2011.

Meanwhile the gulf between the weaker economies and Germany's only grows. Although there will be further banking stress tests in February it is apparent that many banks remain nervous over their exposure to these countries on the periphery of the eurozone. And although countries like Spain and Portugal are unveiling structural reforms, like in the labour market, they come very late in the day. They will take time to have an impact and perhaps increase competitiveness.

So the markets remain unconvinced. Fabio Fois from Barclay's Capital summed up the reaction when he cast the summit as "another missed opportunity to calm the markets".


French President Nicolas Sarkozy talks to German Chancellor Angela Merkel

In recent weeks ideas for solving the crisis have been tumbling out. Few were even discussed at the summit. There was no discussion over increasing the size of the current rescue fund, or whether it could be used to buy bonds or open up credit lines to places that were under pressure.

The idea of the eurobond did come up at dinner - much to the annoyance of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel. She believed that she had shut down the debate, but the head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, brought it up anyway. Afterwards the Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said "Merkel is very opposed, but many others are interested, not least because Europe need only provide the guarantee."

Mrs Merkel is not only opposed to sharing the credit risk across 16 nations, which would undoubtedly see Germany's borrowing costs rise, but she believes it would let weaker countries off the hook. But this argument looks set to be rejoined. It hasn't been closed down.

What this summit did underline again is Germany's dominance in Europe. Mrs Merkel got her way over a limited treaty change. She insisted on it out of fear of the German Constitutional Court. The permanent mechanism will only be activated if it is seen as indispensable "to safeguard the stability of the euro as a whole". In other words, the conditions for being rescued will be tough and Germany will have a veto.

Mrs Merkel, who is aware of her critics in Europe, said "we are doing everything to make the euro secure".

David Cameron seized the opportunity of the summit to fire some opening shots in the battle over the 2014-2020 EU budget. He penned a letter seeking support to freeze the budget in real terms. The letter, intended more to put down a marker than to lay out a negotiating position, was supported by the French, the Dutch, the Germans and some others. Mr Cameron raised this to, in his words, "stop the budget getting out of control". Now the Poles are furious. They fear a tighter budget will squeeze some of the funds heading their way.

The big test for the EU is whether it is prepared to trim its bureaucracy and be honest about the layers of waste. When the budget negotiations begin in earnest one of the interesting trade-offs will be between Britain and France. The UK wants to keep its rebate and the French will defend the Common Agricultural Policy.There may be grounds there for an alliance.

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