Europe's historic moment
There is a dawning in Europe. A growing awareness that events have thrown up one of history's moments.
The German Foreign Minister, Guido Westerwelle, said the awakening in the Arab world was a "historic watershed". "Nothing," in his view, "will be as it was before".
The UK Foreign Secretary, William Hague, said it was "a historic test for the EU". If democracy and stability could take root in North Africa then it would be "the greatest achievement for the EU since enlargement". He was referring to the events after 1989, when the broken-down countries of Eastern Europe were gradually lifted up and folded into mainstream Europe.
Everyone recognises that in the cities of North Africa something has been unleashed that cannot be contained. It is in part a yearning for freedom, but it is also incoherent. And in its incoherence opportunity mingles with fear. For if those countries freed of their autocratic leaders descend into chaos then there are risks to Europe.
"If we don't succeed," said Hague,"the dangers to the EU of instability or extremism on our frontiers are immense". The Italians are warning of the risk of "hundreds of thousands of people crossing into Europe". Their foreign minister Franco Frattini said "we have to mobilise European funds...because frankly speaking, if you allow economies in their countries to collapse, we will be paying the price".
Now there is talk of a for North Africa, aping the American plan that helped reconstruct Europe after World War II. It was seen as critical in getting Europe back on its feet.
This week in Brussels there will be the first serious discussion about a similar plan for the Middle East and North Africa. It brings together the EU, the US, Japan and Australia. The German foreign minister will attend and so will Bill Richardson from the United States, a Democrat with long experience in international affairs.
It is a daunting task. At its simplest the aim would be to provide trade and investment in exchange for political reform.
Some want the West to bolster democratic groups. I noticed that a former liberal candidate in Egypt, Ayman Nour, was arguing that the secular moderate opposition needed all the Western financial support it could get.
Backing political parties, however democratic, is a risky strategy, however.
Former EU commissioner Chris Patten, writing in the Times, wants to see grants and loans from the European Investment Bank directed at social, economic and infrastructure projects.
His view is that the West must reward those countries that behave well and safeguard and accept the rule of law.
Others stress the need to build those institutions that make democracy possible. In Egypt and Tunisia local government has crumbled. The judiciary is widely mistrusted. The police force despised. Several European leaders have pointed out the folly of going for early elections without the structures that underpin civil society being in place.
Others argue that all efforts should be directed towards creating jobs for young and restless populations. Invest in education. Attack illiteracy. Invest in infrastructure projects. Open up trade on a favourable basis to these neighbours across the Mediterranean. Create a free trade area which would benefit North African textile, citrus fruit and olive oil industries.
That, of course, would meet with resistance from southern European countries that are struggling with their own economies. But the wish-list is long and the funds needed would be large. Back in 1948 the Americans spent $13bn (£8bn) over four years. Their GDP at the time was only $258bn.
Some are already saying that, at a minimum, Europe must establish a fund of $10 billion.
The timing is difficult. Europe is in the midst of austerity. It is struggling with budget deficits. Yet there are those who are arguing that generosity now is in Europe's self-interest.
It will need selling to Europe's voters. Europe has a bad record for transparency when it comes to spending. That could undermine popular support for such an endeavour. Treasured programmes like the Common Agricultural Policy might need to be curbed. If Europe is serious about a "new partnership" with the countries to the south it will need politicians to argue the case, to bring people with them.
George C Marshall, in making his case for a massive aid programme said "the whole world of the future hangs on a proper judgement".
He went on to say that "with foresight, and a willingness on the part of our people to face up to the vast responsibility which history has clearly placed upon our country the difficulties I have outlined can and will be overcome."
History never repeats itself exactly, but in 1948 America seized a moment and changed history.
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