Defying predictions
Anyone predicting anything with any degree of certainty for Tuesday was not in New Hampshire. is the best analysis I have seen of the whole thing. I know it is all about delegates now, but it also is not: the magic of winning counts for something. If Hillary or Barack wins California and New York, the wind will be in their sails even if the delegate count is close.
The Obama advert midway through the Super Bowl was audacious but statesmanlike: he could have dressed like a footballer and looked goofy but was well advised not to.
Meanwhile, a reminder that your parents have the capacity to embarrass you even when you are in your seventies. It will have no effect on the race, but John McCain's mum has done it again, suggesting that party members will when they back him (she actually holds her own to make the point). She is wonderful: I hope she talks to the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ soon...
Hello, I'm 
°ä´Ç³¾³¾±ð²Ô³Ù²õÌýÌý Post your comment
Glad to see you're not harping on the polls, Mr. Webb. As an American voter, seeing the polls swing ten percentage points because of a tear, or an endorsement from an outdated political dynasty is always frustrating. It's especially trying when the media takes those swings and starts writing a candidate out of the race. I'd like to hope that when the shamefully small percentage of American voters do go to the polls, they think about the stances candidates take on issues, and not the temper of his/her spouse. Polls are a nice, quick reality check, but, as we saw this year in NH, too often they're taken for the truth.
Nice presentation, but what about the content...how many will be thinking that as they watch teh clip???
The Democrats' delegates, selected proportionately to represent candidates' degree of support by caucus or primary, might be compared to a temporary parliament of sorts, with superdelegates playing footsie in the Stranger's Gallery. This "proportional democracy" mirrors the Electoral College ... and reflects America's (not to mention the Democrats') abiding reluctance to directly-elect the president by popular vote. We could change this ... we didn't always directly-elect Senators ...
Even if Barack Obama takes New York and California, especially if he takes New York and California, the race will run -- hot and steaming -- all the way to the convention. You're absolutely right, Justin ... there is a magic about winning, wind and wings. How desperate do you think Billary might get? Do you think they'd sacrifice Chelsea (Iphigeneia) for enough wind to sail to Troy, er, I mean the White House?
Winner-take-all Republicans coronate, not nominate, at their national convention. There are no back-benchers. What a bore.
All the same, coastal winds will whip-up the interior; both New York and California (and Illiniois, et al) have huge "Latino" populations. Puerto Ricans, Portuguese and other unmentioned Latin-grouped voters are traditional Democrats, unlike traditionally Republican ex-Batista Cubans, a minority outside southern Florida.
The Kennedys are ... I repeat myself ... incalculably influential in the Mexican-American southwest, just as they are in the northeast (midwest, south, etc.) and ... behind the curtain.
"English Only" and "No Irish Need Apply" are Republican slogans ... and Bill cannot claim to have broken the Irish bar nor the Catholic bar. The Kennedys are more than opposing Billary, they are disavowing them.
Bill Richardson should do the same ... he knows better, and already a good man, would be a better man for it. Obama/Richardson would solve the experience issue and put an end to this ghetto vs. barrio gang analogy the media (and the Clintons) are so shamelessly pursuing.
I just can't understand the support for McCain. Surely the last thing the GOP need to put up against the efficient Hillary or exciting Obama is Bob Dole's Grandpa. McCain has the carisma of a Dukakis on prozac and apart from attracting the "anyone but Hillary" crowd (should she be the Dem nominee) it's difficult to see who will be flocking to his banner in Nov. His petty and at times spiteful manner will not win friends. If elected he will only succed in upsetting just about everyone. His bellicose war policy will continue to annoy the non-US part of the planet, his green energy policy will alienate republicans, and his lack of economic or healthcare policies will leave much of the US cold and of course the Dems would oppose any Republican on principle.
I can only assume that the US right has gone the way of the old UK left and become more focused on doctrinal purity than winning and that a conservative split has let McCain sneak through to win on 30% votes.
Although not agreeing with all his policies I though Huckabee the most interesting Rep candidate. Agree with him or not but he did seem to have an agenda beyond just being president for it's own sake. The campaign will be poorer, and less fun, if he can't pull off a miracle tomorrow.
Good Job he raised either $23million or $32million in january (yes, thats right there was a ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ news story on here which had both amounts in the same article!)
Love the blog dude. Im a BA American Studies; I love US elections its like a soap opera crossed with a big sports event buildup. great stuff.
Now I'm certain that if the political parties in Britain ran ads like that they'd win more votes.
I think Barack Obama is going to win California and Hillary Clinton is going to win New York. But a guest on Sky News yesterday reckons that Hillary Clinton will launch a huge pre-planned procedure to get out the vote that will rival Operation Overlord. As we seen in New Hampshire, she does have the power to physically reverse polls so maybe there's some truth in that.
The only thing that matters are delegates. Delegates are awarded proportionally, Billary only got 1 more delegate than Obama from her win in New Hampshire. In Nevada, Obama received 13 delegates and Billary 12, despite Hillary having won the popular vote.
Hillary will win New York because that is her home state and where her senate seat comes from. But Obama will pick up a significant number of delegates too because she will not win the state with the wide margin that Obama won South Carolina and will win his home state of Illinois.
The race in California is very close. As votes are awarded proportionally as well.
I know it is all about delegates now, but it also is not: the magic of winning counts for something.
and until the human race learns to find spreadsheets more interesting than magic, it will go on lurching from blunder to disaster.
The media in the US have been an absolute disgrace in this election. The likes of Fox, CNN and MSNBC have shown such bias towards Obama that you have to wonder - why?
It is as much to do with their advertising revenues than any actual political backing. A contest that is close means higher viewing figures and therefore higher advertising revenues.
It seems clear to me that the executives of these stations were not happy with Clinton having a big lead as it was bad for their advertsing revenues. By backing Obama and downplaying Clinton they are guilty of partisanship of the worst kind all in the name of a fast buck.
i am an american, and obama mania is spreading all across this nation....trust me, no republican will be in the whitehouse , the democrats are bringing out more voters, and raising more money, mccain had to borrow 3 million in november, obama raised 32 million in one month, he raised $525,000 in one hour after the south carolina primaries...heres a video that is sweeping across america...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fZHou18Cdk&eurl=https://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/CGBMy
Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.
---John F. Kennedy
I love how often this election race has disproved the 'certain' predictions of commentators across the world - leading to the highly enjoyable specatcle of the world's media scrambling over themselves to pretend they really knew the shock was coming.
It's all a bit like the SuperBowl... Being in the UK, I didn't get to see Obama's SuperBowl advert but, considering the 'shock' result of the great game itself, I wonder if his advert may prove to have been cannily placed...
I have no particular sympathies for America's Republicans in general or even Mr McCain in particular, but the Republican/McCain camp's reactions to Mother McCain is reassuring.
Dare say anything unflattering about Mr Obama--prepare to be labelled a 'hater', if not a 'racist'.
Dare to refuse to parrot monosyllabic words stringed together to form a melodiously-chanted slogan
> Change! Change! Change!", or
> "Yes, we can. Yes, we can. Yes, we can." a la Thomas The Train
pose probing questions and put forward a coherent counter-argument--prepare to be dismissed as a hack.
The next President should be elected regardless of age, gender or race--and let it be for the right reasons.
I'm concerned (well, OK, it doesn't keep me up at night) about the extent to which these Obama votes are actually anti-Hilary votes. I'm not saying it's universal, but many of the blogs and "social news" sites out there are expressing a deep dislike for carrying on "the dynasty" of Bush/Clinton, and stating that Hilary is pro-war, pro-big business and so on.
Comparatively little is written about Obama's positives, beyond the fact that he offers hope. A powerful asset, no doubt... but what happens if Obama were to (most likely) face an experienced and well-versed McCain- public opinion of the freshman Senator may change quickly.
In the first paragraph of the analysis Justin refers to, the writer says, "Call it Super Complicated Tuesday: a virtual national primary that may not yield a clear winner in the high-stakes showdown between...," blah, blah, blah. Maybe this's a minor point, but doesn't she mean "a VIRTUALLY national primary"?
(in addition to my last post, i am reasonably scatterbrained on Monday mornings...)
It also seems a little odd that both candidates are gravitating towards universal healthcare as the key policy point. After all, a universal healthcare plan was recently defeated in California- are they trying so hard to appeal to the Democratic core that they'll end up alienating floating voters when the primaries are over?
I'm lucky enough to be able to blog my way through an extended road trip across America during the summer and beyond- I can't wait to get talking to some real Americans about the whole process and maybe even getting to attend a few of the election run-up events. Lovely as it is, debating fine semantics with fellow Brits can't compare!
Any tips for the road tripper, Justin? I'll keep an eye out for McDonalds espressso- I'm in Canada right now (just over the border in Vancouver) and I've got agree with you, McDonalds coffee has been good enough to keep me going through a few late night work sessions!
It's not all about delegates now or at any time, it's all about fundraising; the "magic" of money in America's prostituted political system. Why do you think Obama Copacobana could afford an ad spot during the Superbore, the most expensive ad space of the year. It's what goes on behind the scenes in the now un-smoke filled rooms that predetermine the outcome in advance. Obama and Hillary are ideologically interchangable. Making an illusory contest out of it with vague ad copy style prattle and giving it the big media builup to try and whip up an ersatz excitement is simply a means of hoodwinking the public into believing in the phoney legitimicay of a rigged system. It would have been ironically appropriate if Obama had dressed up as a football player, you might just as well believe in one kind of illusion as another.
Oh come along Mr Webb, I hope you will not be making the mistake that the C-Span interviewer makes of asking her to remember Mr McCain's childhood - I mean that was a few years ago !
But I do suspect that 'Johnnie' will be hoping that she doesn't pitch up too often on the campaign trail - although I have a feeling he will be working on the rustling up of the 'wild horses' which will clearly be required to keep her away from his rallies...
At least now he can counter those rather facile 'ageism' critics - all he has to do is point out that his mother is still going strong - and he'd only have 8 years in the White House, tops !
Sorry, but I've just been watching that Roberta McCain interview and want to thank you for picking up this gem...
"John never holds a grudge; I quite like some of mine !"
Priceless !! And she even tells us her age. I don't know what she's taking, but if I could bottle it and sell it I'd never have to work again..
This morning's california commute held two election vignettes: a 60ish couple holding Obama signs on a freeway onramp, and a staunch Republican house nearby signless for the first time in 20 years. Yet see the fewest number of bumper stickers ever in Northern California.
If you talk with people, you get irrational emotionalism about why. It's like arguing with people in cults - you're either part of the cult or not. There is a high resentment factor of those in the cult by those outside.
What rings most true is that "New Hampshire" uncertainty in the air.
One things certain - I love John McCain's mom.
How could the election be about anything except stopping wars and providing universal healthcare? I was born in Texas and emigrated to Denmark and until I became a Danish citizen, I always campaigned for Democrats.
The US policy under Bush has been a disaster and Hurricane Katrine showed how much the Bush administration does not care about the poor in America, except as bodies in the military, that can be sent off to fight wars and get killed trying out all kinds of expensive gadgets and weapons that the Defense Department has on the shelf.
It is about time that America makes a change and focuses on education and health care for all citizens.
Climate change is so important and stupid wars are not. One can only hope that Obama will get the money and make the right descisions to get elected. Jimmy Carter was also seen as an outsider in Washington, but he was the best person who has served as President that I have seen. Oh, I do so hope to see the end of the Reagan Dynasty. Hillary Clinton has nothing new to offer and McCain reminds med of Ronald Reagan going into senility.
I am in New Zealand right now and people here are certianly interested in this election. The World needs to move in a different direction and the new American President will hopefully undo some of the damage that the Bush administration has done. It would have been possible to provide a lot of education and health care and security of the levees in New Orleans for what has been wasted on wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
As an outside observer, Craig McKee (4), I would like, with all due respect, to make the following qualifications as regards McCain.
"His bellicose war policy will continue to annoy the non-US part of the planet [1], his green energy policy will alienate republicans [2], and his lack of economic or healthcare policies will leave much of the US cold [3] and of course the Dems would oppose any Republican on principle [4]."
1. As the sole superpower, it is arguably the US' job to seek engagement with the "non-US part of the planet", not refrain from annoying it as such when necessary (the current Bush administration arguably failed in the former while indulging itself in the latter [as opposed to the men and women it deployed to actually get the job done]); in any case, the first job of a US president is the US (as a European, even I get extremely annoyed with the "Let's wait and see what the US does and then criticise it regardless" attitude so prevalent outside of the US).
2. Green policies have to do with a lot more than simply pleasing Republicans: it's not a boat that even they can escape, given that they're in the same one.
3. If there was the political and, more importantly, public will in the US, the healthcare issue would probably get sorted out in short order (i.e. it would be a practical rather than contentious, sociopolitical issue for such a nation). The fundamentals of the US economy remain the best on the planet; the shorter/medium-term pain will come because there was, simply put, insufficient self-discipline and transparency in borrowing across the board (politicians can't actually say that, so I will).
4. Reflexive opposition, i.e merely for the sake of it, is probably a mark of US polarised discourse at the present time (you should see the way Americans do their best to trash each other on YouTube), not a specific presidential-candidate issue as such.
In short, the points you raised are arguably not a specific McCain thing, but, rather, a broader US set of issues at the present time.
Good heavens ! Huw Edwards - in the USA !!- featured on the Beeb's coverage of 'Super Duper' tuesday this evening ! What next ? Robert Peston ? Heaven forfend........
I'm sure you could do this on your own (with Matt Frei's assistance), without all these extra Beeb peeps like Jim Naughtie taking jollies to chime in. I bet they don't cross the Atlantic on economy. When I spot "Pants" Paxman in the US, I'll know beyond doubt where our $200 ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ licence fee is really spent........
There are small mercies. At least none of the candidates, including Romney, are as brittle as this guy.
The LA Times story doesn't mention that Cheney's "attacker" was the former executive director of the Denver Metropolitan Air Quality Council. Or that he was cuffed in front of his 8-year-old son and spent three hours in jail.
"This (lawsuit) is really about whether we in fact live in a free nation, whether we in fact still have the ability to speak freely in our opposition to government policies," Howards said.
Even Bill's not that grouchy, or this scary. All the same, this is what the American War on Terror has become for it's citizens.
Which of the candidates will be the first to oppose HR 1955, the death of free speech?
I need to hear more from Mr. Obama regarding civil liberties. He's reassured me on habeas corpus, he's appalled by torture ... would he demand a special prosecutor for the CIA tapes?
None of this is water under the bridge; this is a poisoned well and it's got to be drained and relined.
Hillary and Pelosi don't want to make waves, not least because they're too closely involved not to be drenched by the backsplash.
Courageous Dems will pursue Constitutional violations with vigor ... because restoring the American social contract is, in truth, our only protection within and without our borders.
Woodward ... where are you?
What concerns me about McCain is the one issue that no one seems to want to talk about, and that's what happens if the Republican's do hold their noses to keep Hilary out and he makes it to the Whitehouse? There will be a large section of the Republican party who will essentially cease to support him at that point, simply regarding his task to have been completed. He may have limited support from the party in congress who will be more worried about keeping their conservative constituents and fundraisers happy, that is not a recipe for getting things done in the USA.
Also can I ask why if Hilary being a woman could be an issue, and Obama being black could be an issue, and Romney being a Mormon could be an issue, why the heck isn't being 72 an issue. Surely the effects of aging are rather more likely to impact on a President's performance thatn any of the above?
Arthur (21) Thanks for your comments. I do agree that a any president is going to have to put US interests first and will have to work against internal opposition so those are general to all candiates. However I just wanted to point out that those in Europe (I live in Ireland) who think McCain is "liberal" and therefore will have a different foriegn policy from GWB will be disappointed. The best that he could offer in that area is a more competent approach but he is very comfortable with miltary solutions. On the green issue - yes it needs to be addressed but McCain may find himself in difficulty as (righty or wrongly) he would be without the support of many in his own party in advancing that cause. Also he seems to have a temper and an arrogance that some may take as leadership but will turn many others away.
Concerned - The roll call goes further than that..
Jon Sopel was over on Super Bowl Sunday..
As was David Grossman..
I'm sure it is all just a coincidence - they can't ALL be Superbowl fans, can they ?
I have to take minor issue with Mr. McKee and agree with micheal. If the Republicans nominate Mr. McCain, he will be a formidable opponent. I, like other Democrats considering the electability problem, have to give some thought to which Democrat will have the better chance of both attracting angry independents and persuadng young people and working people, especially non-rural working people of all ethnicities, to come out and vote. The best weapon Democrats have is economics, and I do not mean the GDP growth rate. The once great American middle class has experienced a real decline in income and living standards and correctly sees worse in store for their children. That is a galvanizing issue. The Bush war in Iraq is important, but it will go away. I rather hope that McCain and his party do campaign strongly on their no tax, small government platform
"The next President should be elected regardless of age, gender or race" - H K Livingston
Arguably age should be taken into account, as a reasonable proxy for future health. Statistically, McCain is far more likely to be seriously ill or die during his term if he becomes President than any of the other candidates - oh yes, except for "Doctor" Ron Paul (what was the subject of his doctoral thesis, by the way?), who's even older. That is surely a factor voters can reasonably take into account? If McCain wins the nomination, as seems likely, his choice of VP will be unusually important.
As a Franco-Anglo-Saxon with a sneaking respect for the American electoral system, I find the current race for the White House something of an non-event if only because the eventual outcome is, to me, as obvious as night follows day. John McCain is already a racing certainty for the Republicasn nomination and, barring a cardiac arrest, will be elected the next President of the United States. This will happen for no other reason than, when all the hipe is over and the chips go down, 'Joe Six-Pack' is not yet ready to put either a woman or an African-American into the White House irrespective of their perceived atributes or qualifications for the job.
Regarding the Obama ad:
And we want to hold hands and sing kumbayaa as well...there's no meat with these potatoes.
It is an insult to the audience to promise the earth, moon and stars without ever offering an explanation about how those promises will be fulfilled.
As is normal for the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ they forget the real winner for America will be voting in RON PAUL. RON PAUL is still there and will not fade because his voters are on the streets of america. The economy; the wars overseas; the recession; the drop in house prices; freedom, are all the issues that the media do not want to talk about, but ordinary americans do. As each day goes by RON PAUL will be a thorn in the Republican Party that will be difficult to extract. Let the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ talk to RON PAUL and listen to the message.
I am amazed at the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳. Only on a few miscellaneuous occasions has the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ (or in this case BB can't see) run any information on Ron Paul '08 and his message of minimised government and less involvement in foriegn policy for the US.
I thought you were a credible news service but alas I believe you have gone the way of Fox news. Next I suspect you will have a Bill O'Rielly clone or a award winning series involving yellow cartoon characters.
Lift you Game!!!
Hi Justin,
I as you have a liking for all things US. But I am a novice when it comes to US election watching.
If Barack Obama manages to succeed against Hillary do you think that he has enough experience to 1, fight off John McCain and 2, be an effective President and why?
Great reporting from the US.