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I was over in London at the start of the week discussing with some colleagues the likely themes in the run up to the next General Election. Although many observers are assuming an outright Conservative victory, as Newsnight's Michael Crick pointed out on his blog in April, this would require the second biggest swing in 60 years.

If we do have a close race and head into "hung parliament" territory, then Northern Ireland may come into its own. Back in February 1974, after all, it was the refusal of the Ulster Unionists to take the Conservative whip which deprived Ted Heath of his ability to form a government.

The chose July 12th as a suitable date to ruminate on Northern Ireland's likely impact on the General Election. Inevitably we shall spend a lot of time focussing on whether the DUP will hold on to all their 9 seats, whether the TUV or UCUNF can make any gains, what Lady Sylvia Hermon will do in North Down and how the battle between Sinn Fein and the SDLP might work out in South Down and elsewhere.

However if the arithmetic across the UK is close, local MPs, no matter which banner they stand under, could have a crucial part to play in the formation of a government (the obvious exception being the abstentionist Sinn Fein). In that case the period immediately after the election could turn out to be even more interesting than the campaign or the counts.

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