Cons and Pacts
The DUP Finance Minister Sammy Wilson has been breathing more life into the notion of a pan- unionist pact today, writing in the Newsletter that unionist unity offers an "enormous prize".
Whilst some within the Ulster Unionists (for example the South Belfast branch) have made no secret of their support for local pacts, other sources have suggested to me that, meeting at the weekend, many Ulster Unionist executive members were cool about the notion of re-creating the unionist monolith.
Meanwhile the Conservatives look like the ones licking their wounds. Three of their nominees, including two Catholics Peter McCann and Sheila Davidson, are withdrawing their names as potential candidates. According to the Observer, this was because the secret DUP-UUP-Conservative talks organised by the Tory spokesman made some of them "want to vomit" as they viewed it as the "triumph of tribalism over inclusive, secular politics".
Others challenge this account, claiming that some of the nominees has threatened to resign a fortnight ago, before the secret talks were exposed. The allegation is that the potential candidates' main concern was frustration at the failure of the Conservative and Unionist alliance to get its act together.
Whatever the motivation, the latest developments are bad news for David Cameron's experiment in dipping his toe in electoral politics here. The secret talks have prompted angry criticism from the SDLP deputy leader Alasdair McDonnell who described them as "a very negative intervention" at a crucial time.
As the Ulster Unionist communications director points out in the Newsletter, Dr McDonnell has a dog in this fight. If a single unionist candidate fought South Belfast, it would be hard for the SDLP MP to hold on to his seat. However he is not alone in his criticism - at the weekend the Alliance leader David Ford told me on Inside Politics that if David Cameron becomes Prime Minister he could not hope to be a neutral peace broker given his party's approach to the two main unionist parties. And if the notion that Mr Cameron isn't savvy enough to handle the complexities of Northern Ireland takes hold across in the London media, the Tory leader could come to regret his foray into politics here.
Mr Cameron may discount that if the prize is ten or twelve votes within a future hung parliament. But of course a lot of the talk about pacts and re-alignments remains hypothetical. The Conservatives insist that Mr Cameron has full confidence in his spokesman Owen Paterson and that they still intend to contest all 18 seats.
But even if this talk goes no further who is the winner as things stand? I suggest it is none other than the DUP leader Peter Robinson. Wind back a fortnight or so and in the wake of the Spotlight programme the DUP appeared to be in a tight spot. The Conservative and Unionist alliance could now start eyeing up seats like Strangford (where they may very well end up running the former TV presenter Mike Nesbitt) which they could not have hoped to win previously. The maths in other targets seats, such as East Belfast, South Antrim, Upper Bann and Lagan Valley, also potentially to be in flux.
Now though the non-sectarian Conservative and Unionist brand has been damaged. Voters may well wonder whether there's any difference between the DUP and the UUP if they are considering forming one block at Stormont. Sinn Fein, despite expressions to the contrary, have to be concerned about how unionist realignment might change the balance at Stormont. And more to the point the focus switches away from the Spotlight allegations.
You have to hand it to Peter Robinson. Even when he is a tight corner, the DUP leader remains a master tactician.
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