Knife crime stats saga continues
Sometimes statistics are so meaningless one wonders why they were ever counted in the first place.
Today, in another convoluted twist to the long-running "dodgy knife-crime stats row", (the subject of numerous previous posts) we are treated to [pdf link].
Not a snappy title I grant you, but it has a certain dreary honesty.
The figures which follow, however, are as dodgy as an unshaven man in a striped shirt carrying a bag marked "swag". I know, because Research Report 18 says as much:
"There are some important limitations to the data: the lack of statistically robust comparison areas; the provisional nature of most of the data; the heterogeneity of the forces; and the domination of the overall trend by a handful of forces.
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Notably, the sheer volume of offences in the Metropolitan Police area drives the overall trend and their decrease in teenage knife-related crime may have been influenced by other initiatives, such as Operation Blunt 2."
What this means, of course, is that we cannot tell whether a government programme which "aimed to reduce the carrying of knives, related homicides and serious stabbings among teenagers (aged 13-19)" did any such thing. It is impossible to identify cause and effect.
Quite how this data advances the science of countering violent crime is beyond me.
The conclusion tries hard to sound positive:
"The findings indicate an overall decline in recorded knife crime and hospital admissions in the target age group (19 and under). Provisional NHS admissions data suggest that the drop was more marked in the TKAP areas, though the start of this decrease does appear to predate implementation of the initiative."
The revelation that stab victim numbers were falling before the much-trumpeted initiative was first revealed, some may recall, by this blog.
The most valuable service Research Report 18 has done for Britain is to force senior police officers to admit what ministers should have said in the beginning.
"This is a long journey," said Chief Constable Keith Bristow, who is in charge of rolling out the second phase of the programme. "Success when you're dealing with these sort of problems might be measured in generations, not weeks or months."
Hear, hear.
I'm 
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