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Sabre rattling aimed at ears of Gaddafi

Mark Mardell | 14:05 UK time, Tuesday, 1 March 2011

US_jets.jpgAre America and the UK going to pit their military might against the Gaddafi regime?

Reading the British papers, like the , the and the , would suggest that we are on the brink of an assault. I doubt it, but it is certainly the impression the White House and Downing Street would like hanging in the air.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has explicitly talked about a no-fly zone. US warships are moving closer to Libya. David Cameron has ordered the RAF to look at plans for a no-fly zone. He even agreed that Britain could arm the rebels. This raises a whole host of interesting questions. What with? Rifles? Mortars? Tanks?

Given there is no such thing as a formal "rebel movement", how would they prove who they are? What if they use the arms to rob and steal? What if there is faction fighting? Will they have to give the guns back afterwards or can they keep them?

A no-fly zone, preventing Col Muammar Gaddafi's air force from bombing his own people is at least simpler than that. Although it is not a simple job, it is very much what the US and UK can do and have done in Iraq.

Diplomacy is much more difficult. For a start, who does it? Nato won't, without a UN resolution. When Mrs Clinton met the Russian foreign minister, it wasn't even raised. Given Russian support is necessary for a UN resolution, not raising the issue is a little odd if it is a realistic option. The Chinese aren't keen either.

Of course the US and UK can go it alone, without the UN or Nato, and perhaps with a few other friendly countries giving moral support. You could even think of a snappy name for such an alliance. How does "coalition of the willing" sound? Exactly.

The Obama administration might not want to follow the exact route former President George W Bush took. Even leaving that aside, President Barack Obama made it clear he is really worried about reinforcing the perception the US is throwing its weight around, imposing solutions in the Middle East. The new Egyptian government has already spoken out against military action in Libya. I would think Mr Obama would want at least one big ally in the region to join in if any action was taken, and so far none are stepping forward.

So this is probably sabre rattling. After all, the purpose of such a racket is to convince the enemy you just might draw the sword, if he doesn't back down. I could be wrong. We might yet see US and British aircraft flying over Libya, shooting down its jets. But if we do, it will be a very big moment for Mr Obama. I will update when Mrs Clinton has spoken on Capitol Hill later on Tuesday.

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