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The Reporters: US mid-terms

All entries by this reporter: Matt Frei

Fathers and sons


, the new Secretary of Defence, is a friend of President Bush's father.

Coming on the heels of the appointment of to head the Iraq Study Group, think of it as the friends of Bush the father coming in to save the White House of the son.

A sort of Shakespearean family drama but with global repercussions.

Organisation v revenge


I went to Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district, near Philadelphia, where - the 33-year-old former West Point professor and Iraq veteran - has been running a confident campaign against the Republican incumbent .

"Murph", as his supporters call him, seems to be prevailing over "Fitz", as his supporters call him, in the passion stakes - but once again it looked to me as if the Democrats might founder on the rock of insufficient organisation.

At the Everett primary school in Bristol, Pennsylvania, there were two Republican vote-trackers with bar codes for each voter in hand, keeping an eye on who had actually turned up at the polls.

Those who decided to stay at home had their bar codes processed by a computer for a robo-call to get them off the couch or a knock on the door from a friendly volunteer.

The Democrats had no such trackers and relied, it seemed, mainly on the newfound enthusiasm of their voters. The ground war on Election Day is a battle between organisation and revenge. We will find out in the next few hours which comes out on top.

Message, money and Tammy


You would have to invent if she didn鈥檛 already exist. One could not imagine a more convincing candidate for a party running on the biggest issue vexing American voters these days, the Iraq war.

tammyfox_gi203b.jpgMajor Duckworth is a former Blackhawk pilot. Such was her commitment to her unit that she volunteered to serve one more time, against the wishes of her superiors. She has a winning smile, a terrific sense of humour, an intelligent manner and no legs.

She left them on the battlefield in Iraq two years ago when her Blackhawk was hit by a grenade. Yesterday I saw her manoeuvre deftly into a campaign meeting at the . Her new metal legs were festooned with the Stars and Stripes. Next to her was , the actor gripped by the irregular tremors of advanced Parkinson鈥檚 (close up the shaking seemed genuine enough, !).

They had come to talk not about Iraq but stem cell research, which I have discovered is one of the main issues motivating swing voters and moderate Republicans to turn their backs on Mr Bush鈥檚 party. His veto of federal funding for it has turned out to be a colossal own goal.

As Tammy told us, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 just talk about Iraq" - the prostheses do it for her - 鈥淚 am here to discuss other issues鈥. The room was packed and the free media cameras rolled by the dozen.

Contrast that with the campaign event at the Manzo restaurant held by her Republican opponent , affable father of four, lawyer and state legislator with 13 years' experience. It was dark and deserted.

But hang on - Peter Roskam may well win the seat being vacated after 32 years by Rep Henry Hyde. Mr Roskam still has $1m to spend. Tammy Duckworth only has $200,000, even though they both raised the same amount ($2.5m).

He also has the benefit of a dedicated get-out-the-vote effort that knows virtually every potential Republican voter in the 6th District of Illinois by name. Means may still trump message.

Vultures of Vietnam


Comparisons with Vietnam have been circling around the Iraq war like linguistic vultures, thanks to a typical Washington chain reaction. Tom Friedman, the respected New York Times columnist who originally supported the Iraq war and has been tying himself in knots ever since, wrote a comparing the dreadful events of the last week with the Tet offensive in the Vietnam War. Fine.

vietnam_203ap.jpgBut then ABC's affable asked none other than the commander-in-chief about the comparison, and to everyone's surprise the president - who is supposed to be in a state of denial - almost blithely said: "He may be right鈥." and then moved on swiftly to firmer ground about al-Qaeda and its desire to see the US quit Iraq.

Vietnam rhetoric is not helpful in the weeks before the mid-term elections. Nor is it accurate. First, there are the differences in casualties. At this stage in the Vietnam war, America had lost about 20,000 men. Iraq has cost the US troops at the last count. But no war, including this one, can be measured solely by the number of casualties. The key equation is the sacrifice of casualties measured against the perceived benefits of the conflict. Is it worth it?

The answer in World War II - in which just over 400,000 Americans died - was clearly yes. Even in Vietnam the withering of public support was slow. It took about 20,000 dead Americans for the public to turn against the war. In Somalia in 1993 it took only 18 dead Americans and two downed Black Hawk helicopters to see the troops heading for their boats.

Remember also that today's US troops in Iraq are professionals - and volunteers. Their tragedies are felt by a relatively small proportion of the population. Vietnam was fought by hundreds of thousands of hapless conscripts who were hopelessly out of their depth in the jungles of South-East Asia.

protest_203ap.jpgSo here's my conclusion: Yes, this war is unpopular. A solid majority of Americans have lost faith in it and doubt it can be won. And yet there are only a handful of anti-war protesters outside the White House. Jane Fonda is nowhere to be seen and millions have not poured into the Mall to demand that the troops come home. From Hollywood to the Democratic Party to the prevailing opinion in the streets, we are all caught in the headlights: loath to stay in Iraq and afraid to leave.

This is the world post 9/11. We are fighting a "global war on terror". Polls show that most Americans believe the stakes of abandoning Iraq are too high, that the US has a responsibility to try to fix the problem -"we broke it, we own it!" - and that abandoning it could fuel a regional war with even more dire consequences. So the pain threshold in Iraq is surprisingly high, especially if it's not your child getting killed.

Governator 2.0


Arnold Schwarzenegger has been rebooted by his advisers with results that should make other Republicans blush with envy. Six months ago it looked as if the Terminator would indeed terminate at the gubernatorial elections this November. He was in the mid 30s in the approval poll ratings.

arnieclooney_203ap.jpgNow he has soared back into the upper 50s. In the musty library of the I sat down with his key campaign guru Matthew Dowd to discuss the reversal of fortune. Two years ago the affable Mr Dowd helped to get George W Bush re-elected. Then it was all about mobilising the Christian right-wing base of the Grand Old Party and despatching them on a crusade to the polling booths.

Now the new mantra is to rediscover the fuzzy centre. "Americans hate this partisan bitterness, they hate extremes", Mr Dowd - who looks more like a pop producer than a political consultant and is also advising Sen John McCain - told me. "They feel more comfortable with leadership from the centre".

This is especially true in California, where Arnie has realised that he can't govern without the support of the majority voting block, which happens to be Democratic. Hence a $37bn grant for education, roads and other infrastructure projects, a state grant to conduct stem cell research and Kyoto-style caps on greenhouse gas emissions, which have impressed voters in California and upset GOP party hacks back in Washington.

"I always knew Arnie was a closet Democrat", one of them told me. "Look, he's married to - a Kennedy - and he hired Susan Kennedy - no relation but a Democrat - to be his chief of staff."

If it were a country, California would have the world's sixth-biggest economy. So if Green is the new Red - I'm talking about the colour codes of American politics of course, where, somewhat confusingly for Brits, Red is the colour of the right - then Washington better take heed.

But it's not just a few hand-picked centrist policies that are making a difference. Like dozens of other Republican candidates, he has kept his distance from an increasingly toxic president. Two years ago he appeared on the stump for W in Ohio. Recently when Mr Bush was on a visit to California, Arnie shunned the commander-in-chief for a meeting with the other George making the headlines - George Clooney.

The governator has also learned to say the hardest word. He has shown contrition for his mistakes and it has worked. Mister Universe has become a "girly man", and much of touchy-feely California is impressed. As Mr Dowd put it to me with a twinkle of irony: "My recipe for success: I would get a politician to make one big mistake a week and then apologise for it."

About Matt Frei


I'm the 成人论坛's senior North America TV correspondent. Before taking up this post, I was the 成人论坛's Asia correspondent - based in Singapore and Hong Kong - a post I started just before the handover to China.

I first joined the 成人论坛 in 1986 shortly after leaving university, where my first job was in the German section of the 成人论坛 World Service, before moving to English language current affairs from 1987 to 1988. From 1992 to 1996 I was the 成人论坛's correspondent in southern Europe, based in Rome.

I've witnessed many dramatic events, including the fall of Berlin Wall, and I've reported on the intifada and the first Gulf War as the London foreign affairs correspondent.

I was born in Germany, though my family moved to London when I was 10. I read History and Spanish at Oxford University, and graduated in 1986.

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