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With a poll suggesting for the first time that more people disapprove of Kevin Rudd's performance as prime minister than approve of it, we might have just witnessed a tipping point in Australian politics. Indeed, for the Fairfax newspapers which commissioned the polling it is not so much a tipping point as a plunge point. With , its stable of papers report that "Mr Rudd's approval rating has nosedived 14 percentage points to 45%, while his disapproval rating has skyrocketed 13 points to 49%. The loss of personal support is the most dramatic for a prime minister in a decade."

Since coming to office in late 2007, Kevin Rudd has usually been able to rely on the respect of the electorate, if not its affection. But in recent weeks two successive polls suggest that he has lost that sense of command and authority. There has been the cumulative effect of the negative headlines attached to his government's home insulation scheme and the cost blow-outs from the school improvements scheme. Then there have been hikes in the cost of borrowing, even if interest rates are still on the low side, historically, and are decided by the Reserve Bank of Australia rather than the government. On the progressive side of politics, many one-time admirers have also been angered by his decision to suspend applications for asylum from Afghans and Sri Lankans, which they see as craven populism.

But it is also possible to identify a single pivotal moment: having failed repeatedly to win its enactment in the Senate.

Whether you were for the ETS or not, whether you believe in the science of climate change or don't, there does appear to be a measure of common agreement on Mr Rudd's handling of the issue: that the decision to retreat demonstrated political cowardice. "Gutlessness" is the word I hear most frequently. And it is being uttered with edgy scornfulness both from those who voted Liberal at the last election and, more worryingly for Kevin Rudd, those who voted Labor.

Mr Rudd's response to downward poll numbers is usually to work harder, make more media appearances and announce more new departures in policy. Recently, we have seen a hike in cigarette taxes and the introduction of a super tax on the super profits of mining companies. But political correspondents in Canberra complain that these kind of announcements come at such a hurtling pace that they create the impression not of an energetic government pursuing full-throttled reform but of a car careering out of control. Voters are also getting wise to the difference between policy pronouncements and policy outcomes. The promise regularly outstrips the performance, so they may be tuning out.

Only a matter of weeks ago, Kevin Rudd benefited from an Australian version of the "Clegg effect". He aced a televised debate on healthcare and whipped the fabled "worm" into such ecstasy that it brought talk of a Tony Abbott comeback to an abrupt halt. But, as in the UK, the effect of that televised debate wore off fairly quickly. Indeed, having likened the UK election to Britain's Got Talent, and cast Nick Clegg as Susan Boyle, we should have all remembered that the Scottish songstress did not go on to win the final. But I digress.

Now, after the diversions of his Iron Man trialthlon and his Pollie Pedal ride from Melbourne to Sydney, Tony Abbott is very much back in the political race. Though he is still a long way behind Kevin Rudd in the preferred prime minister polling - 53 to 38, according to the latest poll - the gap is narrowing. And fast.

The word "honeymoon" is commonly used to described the period from late 2006, when Kevin Rudd became the Labor leader, until early 2010 when his poll numbers first started to slide. But honeymoons have passion, love and great affection. Kevin Rudd, I suspect, never enjoyed that kind of relationship with the Australian electorate. Instead, he was more like a competent, hardworking CEO, who had the trust of his board, his employees and his shareholders. To push this metaphor to its limits, now the shareholders appear to have lost much of that respect and confidence, and his personal stock may struggle to recover.

Of course, history suggests that he will win a second term. After all, Australians like to give their new prime minister a "fair go". But the polls suggest that the electorate is in the mood to punish Mr Rudd, even if it is not ready to embrace Mr Abbott.

So as Britain deals with the aftermath of its most unpredictable election in decades, we can look forward to an Australian election that might also lend itself to unexpected drama.

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