The Lustig US election survival guide: update
It鈥檚 been a while since I brought you up to speed on the US presidential election drama 鈥 so here鈥檚 a summary for those of you who have better things to do than to follow every twist and turn.
10 things you should know:
1. No, it鈥檚 not over yet.
2. No, the Democrats still haven鈥檛 decided between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
3. But 鈥 and this is the important bit 鈥 it鈥檚 now virtually impossible for Clinton to win the nomination. Obama has more delegates at the party convention in August, and has won a bigger share of the popular vote during the primaries. There are still a few more to go, but the pundits have decided the gap is too big for Clinton to close.
4. The next key date is 22 April, when Pennsylvania holds its primary. Even if Clinton wins, which she almost certainly will, it won鈥檛 change things a lot.
5. After that, wait for North Carolina on 6 May. Obama will win that, and then the party grandees will start telling Hillary it鈥檚 time for her to concede gracefully.
6. Yes, Obama was damaged by the reporting of some of his pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright鈥檚 sermons, but yes, he did recover with his well-received speech in response. (The text is , and it鈥檚 still worth reading.)
7. Yes, Clinton was damaged when she erroneously claimed that during the war in Bosnia, she鈥檇 flown in to the war zone and dodged sniper fire. After video footage showed that she didn鈥檛, she issued a statement saying she 鈥渕is-spoke鈥.
8. Whoever the Democrats end up with, the opinion polls are suggesting it鈥檒l be an unbelievably tight race against the Republican candidate Senator John McCain. The election website currently has McCain beating Obama by 1.3 per cent, or Clinton by 0.3 per cent. In other words, there鈥檚 nothing in it 鈥
9. The conservative radio talk-show host is urging Republicans to sign up as Democrats and vote for Clinton in the remaining primaries, on the grounds that the longer this goes on, the better it is for the Republicans.
10. But some Republicans worry that their man McCain has a notoriously short temper. Once the election proper gets under way, they fear he may lose it.
The election itself is on 4 November. Just 32 weeks to go 鈥
Thanks Robin, a very good summary for both those who try and follow the twists and turns and those who get a little confused about the system, despite a heavy interest in history and politics.
WTN a brilliant programme all round with superb analysis, erudite contributors and, as my 97 yr old grandmother would say, wonderful diction! I am now heading for bed earlier to catch it! Keep up the good work.
Complain about this post"3. But 鈥 and this is the important bit 鈥 it鈥檚 now virtually impossible for Clinton to win the nomination."
This is technically incorrect. It is impossible for her to win enough delegates in the primaries to cinch the nomination on the first ballot on the strength of that alone but it is not impossible for her to win enough super delegates who are uncommitted by party primaries to win the nomination including on the first ballot. If it were true as you inferred that she could not win under any circmstances, then the race would be over. But the super delegates will each make their choice based on various factors including the kind of back room dealing American party politics is famous for and which was the mainstay of how nominees were chosen before we had all these primaries. There are also delegates committed to other candidates who dropped out like Edwards who can be wooed. It is in this arena that President Clinton will be most helpful to his wife and you can be certain that these delegates have been approached for the longest time with promises of all kinds of perks for them and their friends from cabinet apointments to federal judgeships to ambassadorial positions. It's far from over and the only real surprise to me is that it hasn't become far more acrimonious in public between Clinton and Obama by now than it already has.
As for who will win in November, that too is a long way off and a lot can happen between now and then to sway the final result one way or the other.
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