Why did they do it?
If it's true, as the Indian authorities are alleging, that the Mumbai attackers came from Pakistan, the next question we have to ask is: Why?
To advance the cause of India's 150 million Muslims? I doubt it. To further the jihadi agenda? It doesn't seem likely in a country that is overwhelmingly Hindu.
Steve Coll has an intriguing theory on the New Yorker blog . Could it be that the attacks were an attempt to ratchet up tensions between Pakistan and India (they've done that, for sure) so that Pakistani army units are withdrawn from the border region with Afghanistan, where they're in action against the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, to be redeployed along the border with India? It would certainly be to the benefit of the jihadis if that's what happens.
Gideon Rachman in the is thinking along similar lines. He writes: "A confrontation with India would ... strengthen all the most sinister forces in Pakistan - the Islamists and the elements in the security establishment that back them."
And on our programme last night, the Pakistani writer and analyst Ahmed Rashid warned of the danger that India's response to the Mumbai attacks will force the still-weak civilian government under President Asif Ali Zardari to accede to the more hawkish elements in the Pakistani military who may not yet be convinced by his attempts to put relations with India on a new footing. (You can hear him via Listen Again on the website.)
(UPDATE: More from Ahmed Rashid .)
The Indian Foreign Minister said this morning that India is not considering a "military option" against Pakistan in response to the attacks. It remains to be seen if that calms things down a bit. What do you think?
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