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3 Oct 2014

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euro symbol Survey on the Timing of a Future Referendum on the Euro


By Shaun Ley, Political Correspondent

A survey of Labour backbenchers for the Today programme suggests that a significant number would like a referendum on the single currency to take place this year.

One hundred of the party's 265 backbenchers spoke to 成人论坛 researchers in the last seven days. Given a series of possible dates for a referendum, a clear majority wanted it to take place by the autumn of next year. But just over a third believed it should be held even sooner - by this autumn.

Although that group will include Euro enthusiasts, a number of Labour opponents of Britain joining the single currency also favour an early vote. They fear that a gradual 'drip-drip' of pro-Euro propaganda will start to erode public hostility, and that talk of membership being "inevitable" will also weaken the resolve of those who want to keep the pound.

Recent surveys of public opinion suggest that a referendum campaign now would deliver a 'no' vote. That's one reason why this generally pro-single currency government won't seek public endorsement for its policy just yet.

The other is the primacy of the five economic tests, the guardian of which is the Chancellor, Gordon Brown. He's made clear that his assessment of whether we're able to join will take place by June 2003. If he leaves it to the last minute then it might be difficult to hold a referendum that autumn, pushing the decision into 2004.

If this survey is representative of the opinion of Labour MPs, then it would suggest there are signs of impatience with that timetable. The political pressure has also become more acute in the last couple of weeks because of remarks reported to have been made by a senior Treasury official, suggesting that the decision was "ultimately" political rather than economic.


euro notes

The Results

We took as our sample of 265 Labour Backbenchers (excluding all ministers and PPSs)

All 265 were phoned between 8-14 January and where there was no response messages were left asking the MP to contact us. We made direct contact with 163 (61% of the sample) of which, 100 gave us a positive response (61.7% of those directly contacted).

Their answers are set out below.

  • This Autumn:  34

  • By Spring 2003:   13

  • By Autumn 2003:   8

  • By the next election:  22

  • Not in the lifetime of this parliament:   16

  • Don't know:   7

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