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Over the weekend and next week unsettled and increasingly windy conditions are likely. Temperatures will drop well below average for a while, with a wintry touch across much of the UK.

There is an ongoing risk of disruptive weather at times. After that it could turn milder from the south-west.

Unsettled, windy and colder

Over the weekend the high pressure will realign itself further to the west of the UK. This should open the door more widely to a colder north-west or even northerly flow, with temperatures starting to fall to near seasonal or even slightly below average. As a result more of the UK should become susceptible to spells of rain or showers accompanied by brisk north-west to northerly winds. Scotland should see wintry showers on Sunday and strong northerly winds. Some showers could be heavy and thundery, potentially producing icy conditions in places, along with frosty conditions overnight in north-east Scotland and north-east England.

Late on Sunday an intense low pressure system approaches from Ireland, leading to fairly strong winds and spells of heavy rain, sleet or snow in parts. This low could further deepen as it moves across parts of the UK on Monday, still with a little uncertainty in its track. Depending on its track, the deepening low is likely to bring temporary milder conditions to parts of England and Wales on Monday, albeit accompanied by quite strong winds and spells of heavy rain.

With the high pressure likely to shift even further north-west of the UK, temperatures should drop sharply behind this low on Tuesday. It will bring strong northerly winds, and spells of heavy and sometimes thundery showers, which could turn wintry even at lower levels. Early snow which could settle, along with icy and frosty conditions overnight, are on the table, with the coldest conditions in Scotland.

As a result of this quite active North Atlantic pattern, it is likely that a few intense low pressure systems could move across southern parts of the UK later next week. This will bring more stormy and perhaps disruptive conditions to parts of the UK, along with the ongoing risk of heavier wintry precipitation.

New North Atlantic low pressure systems could move across with their fronts until the end of next week, albeit with a gradually milder and brisk west to south-westerly flow. However, confidence is still low at present.

Trending milder

In the last week of November and at the start December - which is the start of meteorological winter too - there is a greater likelihood of an ongoing and quite active North Atlantic pattern. This will bring intense low-pressure systems across the UK from the west or south-west. The latter would lead to further windy or stormy conditions at times.

Temperatures should eventually return to above average for this time of year, except parts of Scotland, where the colder air mass could persist, along with further snowfall and strong winds.

In view of the approaching milder airmass from the south, some freezing rain cannot be ruled out in places during the transition period. The changeable or unsettled and windy conditions are likely to continue as the week progresses, although some high pressure could build into England and Wales.

Rather changeable

Atlantic low pressure influence should prevail over this period but with a slightly greater chance of high pressure affecting the southern areas of the UK.

Temperatures should remain above average. The risk of a new Arctic cold spell generally seems lower during this period. Nevertheless, Scotland may see slightly more variability, possibly getting closer to a colder air mass further north and north-west of the UK. Otherwise, fairly wet and windy conditions could affect much of the UK.

The next outlook on Tuesday should answer the question of whether the meteorological winter will start out rather wintry or whether milder conditions could set in.