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Welsh Assembly election

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May the Fourth ...

  • Betsan Powys
  • 29 Apr 07, 08:37 PM

The time has arrived.

People walk past the bus in Haverfordwest, saunter into the office, hang about outside the nursery and ask: well is Labour going to hold .... or will the Tories take ...?

You can bet then that any small hint of news from the many '...' of this Assembly Election are very welcome.

One honest John explained today that the envelope in which postal votes are returned are very thin, so thin that if you stare at them, you can see in which the box the cross has been put, even if they're not meant for your eyes.

So could it be that the postal votes so far returned to Cardiff North are suggesting a swing to the Tories which is edging into double figures? Early days ... And might thin paper explain why Cardiff's Lib Dems seem far more confident that the fourth list seat in South Wales Central will be theirs, not Plaid's?

Two press releases and a hint arrive today suggesting where we may be heading in this last week. Labour are putting out the simple message tomorrow that if you want the things (they hope) you regard as good - free prescriptions, free bus passes - then you have to vote Labour, despite the things (they're afraid) you regard as bad.

Rhodri Morgan has got to get the vote out and he's said so to anyone who'll listen since well before Christmas. If Labour don't get their vote out - even in seats that are rock solid - he knows the compensation from the list won't save their skins.

Meanwhile Plaid Cymru are coming out fighting on their spending promises, sensing that this is where they're vulnerable? Or sensing that this is where they'll come under attack from now until Thursday?

Eurfyl ap Gwilym, the man behind Plaid's maths, is coming to Cardiff. He's been promised to us 'on the other end of a phone' and has delivered answers but tomorrow, we can see the look on his face when he's asked whether Plaid can really afford those laptops ... and those cheques for first time buyers ... and a three-year spending plan every other party has attacked as irresponsible and hopelessly optimistic.

Expect the same line of attack from the Tories this week. Last week's polls tell us they've got the motive to attack Plaid on their maths. I suspect they think they may have found the means as well.

Best line of a long weekend: "May the Fourth be with you!"

Quite.

Comments   Post your comment

  • 1.
  • At 10:55 PM on 29 Apr 2007,
  • John R. Walker wrote:

Plaid and maths???

Surely there must be some some mistake?

I've been waiting since 2003 for a Plaid costing for independence - does that mean they've finally found somebody who thinks they can explain where the money is gonna come from?

  • 2.
  • At 11:19 PM on 29 Apr 2007,
  • dowlais twp wrote:

well after the last televised debate has Rhodri lost it, he looked like a man on magic mushrooms, he even lost the audience towards the end.
Nick Bourne tried but was always lacking something, as was Ieuan.
From the off a man who looked happy and knew what he wanted to say was Mike German.
Sadly 50 minutes was never enough time too cover every topic, but the programme was fair in the subjets it did cover.
well done 成人论坛 Wales

  • 3.
  • At 11:50 PM on 29 Apr 2007,
  • Stuart Lay wrote:

I thought the debate was interesting and very well run (Huw is a legend!). Rhodri Morgan definatly lost it and he managed to upset the audience whilst Nick Bourne was uninspiring as always. The real impressive leaders were Mike German and Ieuan Wyn Jones. They definatly came out on top, with Ieuan managing a few cheers from the crowd! I think it's going to be very close on Thursday.

Whilst out campaigning on Saturday one voter told me they were not planning to vote because not on party had costed their plans - or at least had not included these on their leaflets. UKIP were given as an example of ambitious cost cutting but without explaining where lost revenue would come from.

I am not surprised that parties are picking each other up on their maths - the voters can't because the information hasn't been presented to them.

  • 5.
  • At 12:03 AM on 01 May 2007,
  • Ginger wrote:

Re postal votes and supposed swings

The problem is that the figures of postal votes should be compared to last time's postal votes figures and not to the final ones (as some parties can perform better in postal votes) but IIRC in 2003 postal vote wasn't as widespread as today.

  • 6.
  • At 09:16 AM on 01 May 2007,
  • Bedd Gelert wrote:

Betsan, I'm waiting to hear your version of 'Space..The final frontier..' ;-]

  • 7.
  • At 11:29 AM on 01 May 2007,
  • Paul Thomas wrote:

In all the discussion over Plaid's extravagant manifesto one point has not yet received comment.

They offer to cut business rates by half as their means of improving the Welsh economy - this has become one of their headline offers.

Currently business rates contribute 拢780 million to public expenditure in Wales. To halve business rates would therefore cost 拢390 million. However, even in Plaid's fantasy budget they allocate only 拢70 million to halving business rates.

So we have a policy which is wrongly costed in a budget which is wrongly calculated - and people are being encouraged to vote for this!

  • 8.
  • At 07:41 PM on 01 May 2007,
  • Berwyn Thomas wrote:

Postal Vote, what postal vote?
If anyone's experience is like ours, we applied for PV's mainly for my son who is away at university and only my wife received one. It's an inconveience for me but I can walk down to the polling station. If it had not been for our local PC candidate our son wouldn't have got his.

  • 9.
  • At 09:43 AM on 02 May 2007,
  • David Edwards wrote:

Thank heavns for thin postal ballots.

In Carmarthen West and South Pembs we can see each vote clearly and the picture is anything but the story in the press of a Plaid win.

Out of 1104 votes opened in the first two days, the figures are
Labour 402, Con 366, Plaid 255 Ind 10.

As Plaid will confirm, these are actual votes not predictions.

Labour Hold I think!

  • 10.
  • At 04:56 PM on 02 May 2007,
  • ER 3 wrote:

Labour hold in Carms West and South Pembs! I think not, Plaid on course for a historical victory.

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