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Welsh Assembly election

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Anoraks welcome

  • Betsan Powys
  • 10 May 07, 01:12 PM

I've no idea whether anoraks read this blog. You're very welcome if you do and to tempt you, here are three things that the uber-anorak, Roger Scully, Professor of Political Science at the Department of International Politics in Aberystwyth has spotted.

1. Labour’s vote share on the Constituency vote in Wales (32.2%) was exactly the same as its share on the Constituency vote in Scotland. This is the first time that Labour’s vote share in Wales has NOT been greater than in Scotland since 1924 (when they were also dead level on 40.6%).

2. Labour’s share of the Constituency vote fell in 39 out of 40 constituencies. The only exception was Sue Lent in Cardiff Central. (Their share even fell in Wrexham – it’s just that John Marek’s share fell even further).

3. The rise of the independents/small parties: a candidate from outside the main 4 parties finished in the first four (thus beating at least one main party candidate) in 5 constituencies in 2003, but in 11 in 2007. And the share of the list vote going to ‘Others’ rose to 16.3%, from 11.9% in 2003 and 4.9% in 1999.

Discuss.

Given that Roger's students - as part of their course - conducted a poll in Llanelli and got the result pretty much spot on, I think he's proven, once again, that he's a man worth listening to!

Comments   Post your comment

  • 1.
  • At 04:31 PM on 10 May 2007,
  • Anotheran wrote:

To me the biggest thing that comes out of the percentages is the poor proportional representation in the final make up of the senedd.

In the regional vote (the PR based one that's meant to balance out the seats agsinst the views of the Welsh people - at least to a degree) Labour got less than 30% but the system of the election left them with 43% of the seats.

If the system resulted in a "fair" allocation of seats Labour would only have got 18 and would have been forced to form a coalition. Not only that but they couldn't have got away with simply working with the Libs as their 7 seats would still be far short of making a majority. We would have had to have seen a rainbow coalition of some flavour with 3 parties needed to form a stable government.

As a Plaid supporter I would be unhappy to have seen the Plaid seat count drop to 13, dissapointed at the appearance of UKIP and and horrified by the BNP representation (both of whom with the Greens would have gained two seats). But first and foremost I'm a democrat, so I believe that the way people vote is the way they should be represented. The UKIP and BNP wouldn't hold onto their share for long as soon as they're given a real platform and people see them for what they are.

Sadly, even though the system for the Assembly is far superior democratically to that used for the UK House of Commons, there is still a significant lack of democratic fairness in the seat allocation. This will remain until the Assembly gets sufficient powers to ammend its own electoral system or persuades the UK government to do it (maybe under a Westminster Tory administration as they attempt to keep Labour out of government in Wales?)

Am I really looking to a UK Conservative government to help democracy in Wales? How things have changed!

  • 2.
  • At 08:48 PM on 10 May 2007,
  • dafad ddu wrote:

If he's Scully, can i be Mulder?

The rise of the smaller parties can be partly explained by the strong showing of UKIP and the BNP but more importantly the one-off votes gained by prominent indies such as Ron Davies, John Marek, Peter Rogers - all ex-AMs who will be unlikely to stand again.
One or two other independents, notably in Islwyn, Merthyr and Alyn & Deeside, did well but there's unlikely to be an independent breakthrough from the grassroots. Both Marek and Law are dependent on a Labour breakaway - now Marek's project is all but at an end, I wonder how long it'll be before People's Voice founders? Like Marek, it was a project founded on opposition to Labour but still v much in the Labour family. It doesn't lay the basis for any new politics - just a vehicle for individualistic candidates.

"3. The rise of the independents/small parties: a candidate from outside the main 4 parties finished in the first four (thus beating at least one main party candidate) in 5 constituencies in 2003, but in 11 in 2007. And the share of the list vote going to ‘Others’ rose to 16.3%, from 11.9% in 2003 and 4.9% in 1999."

Not at all surprised by this. I blogged around a fair bit at the times the campaign polls were published to argue that I didn't feel they were accurate because they put the Other camp in the low single figures.

Nonconformism has always had a home in Wales.

'Vote share was exactly the same as in Scotland' - for a given value of "exactly" - presumably as long as you only look at the percentage rounded to 1 decimal place?

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