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Camborne North runners and riders

Graham Smith | 07:03 UK time, Wednesday, 15 December 2010

Here is the statement as to persons nominated for the Cornwall Council by-election to be held on 13th January:

Mike Champion (Mebyon Kernow)
Paul Holmes (Liberal Party)
Jacqueline Merrick (Green Party)
Anna Pascoe (Liberal Democrats)
Denise Pascoe (Conservative Party)
Jude Robinson (Labour & Co-operative Party)

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    Quite a list of people, is that ther same Anna Pascoe that stood as an MP for a Devon seat? The same that printed and distributed the leaflet slandering a certain MK candidate?
    No commitment to the area?
    or just the realisation that for the Lib Dems Devon and Cornwall are synonymous?

  • Comment number 2.

    Here's all of last years by election results;

    Truro City Council - Moresk Ward - 9 December 2010
    Last updated: 10/12/2010 Add to My Bookmarks
    I, the undersigned, being the Deputy Returning Officer at the election of a City Councillor for the Truro City Council - Moresk Ward held on Thursday 9 December 2010 do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows:
    Ayers, Anthony Robert (Liberal Democrat) 266 Elected
    Forbes, Jennifer Louise (The Labour Party Candidate) 103
    Hale, Richard William (Mebyon Kernow - The Party for Cornwall) 153

    Saltash Town Council - Pill Ward - 11 November 2010
    Last updated: 10/12/2010 Add to My Bookmarks
    Declaration of Result of Poll
    I, the undersigned, being the Deputy Returning Officer at the election of a Town Councillor for The Pill Ward of Saltash Town Council held on the 11 November 2010 do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows :-
    FRANK Hilary Anne (Liberal Democrats) 252 ELECTED
    HOLLOWAY-NEVILLE Alice 171
    WATKINS Denise (Independent) 207

    Bodmin Town Council (St Petrocs Ward) - 14 October 2010
    Last updated: 10/12/2010 Add to My Bookmarks
    Declaration of Result of Poll
    I, Geoffrey Waxman, being the Deputy Returning Officer at the election of a councillor for the St. Petroc's Ward of the Town of Bodmin held on the 14 October 2010 do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows :-
    Phillips, John Lee, The Conservative Party Candidate 404
    Walter, Nicholas John Robert , Liberal Democrat 531 ELECTED

    Falmouth Town Council - Trescobeas Ward - 7 October 2010
    Last updated: 10/12/2010 Add to My Bookmarks
    Declaration of Result of Poll
    I, the undersigned being the Deputy Returning Officer at the election of a Councillor for the Falmouth Town Council - Trescobeas Ward held on Thursday 7 October 2010 do hereby give notice that the number of votes recorded for each candidate at the election is as follows:
    Leona Jane Flanagan (The Labour Party Candidate) 147
    David Garwood (Mebyon Kernow - The Party for Cornwall) 67
    Malcolm Leather (The Conservative Party Candidate) 141
    David William Saunby (Independent) 452 Elected


    Camborne Town Council - West Ward - 2 September 2010
    Last updated: 10/12/2010 Add to My Bookmarks
    Declaration of Result of Poll
    I, the undersigned, being the Deputy Returning Officer at the Election of a Councillor for the West Ward of the Camborne Town Council held on the 2nd September, 2010 do hereby give notice that the number of Votes recorded for each Candidate at the said election is as follows:-

    Bunce, Anthony Christopher - 115
    Dark, Elizabeth Tina Maria - The Conservative Party Candidate - 427 Elected
    Ford, Thomas Dean - Liberal Democrats - 150
    Jenkin, Ernest Paul - Mebyon Kernow - The Party for Cornwall - 400
    Richards, Steven Frederick - The Labour Party Candidate - 222

    Not looking good for MK is it?


  • Comment number 3.

    @Davetherave 2 second places and a fourth place is a considerably better record than the Labour party, all increases on previous elections. If you keep on increasing eventually you are going to win so actually it IS looking good for MK ...
    MK has had an increasing trajectory in its electoral support in the last decade and there's no reason to believe that it will not continue.

  • Comment number 4.

    I think this time around MK has as good a chance as any, the biggest problem that I can see is getting the electorate out to vote.

  • Comment number 5.

    "second places and a fourth place is a considerably better record than the Labour party".

    Using the Labour Party "record" in Cornwall as a yard-stick hardly covers Mebyon Kernow in glory.

  • Comment number 6.

    "If you keep on increasing eventually you are going to win so actually it IS looking good for MK .MK has had an increasing trajectory in its electoral support in the last decade and there's no reason to believe that it will not continue."

    Says CJenkin.

    Sorry to disillusion you CJenkin, but let鈥檚 look at the facts instead of the myths shall we?

    Your best performer in 2010 was Dick Cole with 4.2% of the vote.

    If he had doubled his vote, which is unlikely, he would have overtaken labour and got into third place.

    To get into first or even second place he would have to increase his vote by a factor of 10. Even in the wildest dreams of MK, that is not going to happen.

    So how much did he increase his vote by?

    Well in 2005 Dick Cole got 1351 votes, so in 2010 he increased his vote by 656 votes or 48%.

    48% of very little is not much.

    This is a far cry from the 200% he would need to increase it by to get above labour, and not within a light year of the increase needed to win.


    In fact if he continues to gain votes at that rate, calculating the change as of 2005-2010, and allowing for an election every four years, only in the year 2120 will he get into first place. By which time he will be 152 years old


    Let鈥檚 look at the other end of the scale.

    In West Penwith which should be a MK stronghold, Simon Reed got a miserly 387 votes, less than the virtually unheard of 鈥淐ornish Democrats鈥.

    To get into the big three, he would have to increase his votes x 10 to get ahead of Labour.

    To beat the conservatives 46 x the number he got

    To win, and Beat Andrew George? 50 x the votes he got.

    There is the slight possibility that tehelectorate of Cornwall will shave sudden change of heart and go against 100 years of voting tradition, and suddenly decide to vote for a left-wing party. Unfortunately for MK, that would probably be the Labour party rather than the "even more socialist than Labour" MK.

    Why not give up now eh?

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