成人论坛

GETTING THE IDEA?

High street sales are holding up. Presumably through sales of imported goods in exchange for negative money (plastic).
Might it be that the 'bust-happy' punters have absorbed the 'New Reality' that money is meaningless; so you might as well spend spend spend?
There is no tomorrow - only re-capitalised today.
Cuckoo - cuckoo - cuckoo.

TONY BLAIR AND THE CRAFT OF SPEECH

So Phil Collins wrote Tony's speeches! I am speechless. I printed out the odd text and tried to make sense of it. A mix of Freudian disclosure, convoluted non-grammar and (in the case of a speech made when his war was going wrong) squirming.

Either Phil Collins had an empathy that was beyond belief, or the truth lies (sic) somewhere else. Either way, Mr Collins has a lot to answer for. But will anyone ask him the right questions?

This is a good day to be focusing on young people's experience of the care system.
'Who Cares Scotland?' - which gives a voice to young people in care - is holding its 30th anniversary conference in Renfrew today
- taking as its theme 'Celebrating
Success and Challenging Stigma':

Care and criminogenic/psychiatric risk - which is why Social Services tend to bend over backwards not to take 'at risk' children away from their parents, rarely they get it wrong, more often, they get it right. It's the latter one should focus on lookng to the failures as opportunities to learn, not punish - these can be extremely stressful, draining, jobs with high attrition rates.

China - hopefully, with Paul Mason reporting, it won't be just another anti-Big Government propaganda piece. With a population of over 20x that of the UK and given the extent to which so much of the world looks to China for manufactured goods, it would be very surprising if some of their factories did not have to lay off workers from time to time in response to changes in demand. But these appear, prima facie, to be driven by something else altogether.

WHO CARES - INDEED (#3)

There is no organisation, that I know of, standing up for the rights of the unconceived to remain that way. The day our culture realises that THAT is the FUNDAMENTAL HUMAN RIGHT, all manifestations of misery, consequential to its violation, usually willy-nilly (wilful nihilism)will start to diminish.

Good luck Scotland. I am hoping to nip over the boarder before Celtic pulls up the drawbridge.

It鈥檚 a funny old political world, isn鈥檛 it?

Just a few weeks ago Gordon Brown was on the ropes. His management of the country was a joke. He quite literally could do nothing right, and had no vision to sell to the electorate. It was not even clear whether he backed the philosophies of New Labour, or old Labour. Even his own cabinet was discussing when to drop him. He was all alone in the world except for his favourite, Ed Balls, whose advice seemingly had led to a number of Brown鈥檚 worst mistakes. He had lost confidence in himself, and gave the impression that even he believed he was doomed. Indeed, with a Tory lead in the polls running in double figures, every pundit gave him no chance at all of winning the next election. When it would happen, and how large a landslide it would be for the Tories, dominated the headlines.

On the other side of the chamber David Cameron was riding high in the polls. His excellent PR skills, gained in the one real job he had done, had made him the leader by sheer dint of his likeable image. In terms of policies, having successfully put the Thatcher inheritance behind him, he was successfully finessing most issues by saying he would offer much the same as New Labour; but more effectively and managed by a nicer class of person. He was supported by his eminence-grise, George Osborne, who had engineered the downfall of Brown by his perfectly timed move, a year previously at the Tory Conference, proposing to raise the estate duty threshold to 拢1 million. Cameron had, thanks to Brown鈥檚 mistakes, moved to a guaranteed win at the next election.

Then, just those few weeks ago, the whole ball-game changed out of all recognition; way beyond anything we could have imagined. The world came to Gordon Brown鈥檚 rescue, with the credit crunch. All of a sudden he had vision; saving the world of finance. Not only that but it was a subject he knew, and more important felt really comfortable with. His confidence grew by the day. Furthermore his natural approach, Keynesianism, turned out to be the only game in town. And he got lucky, where luck is the thing a successful politician needs. Being ahead of the game he found himself leading the other leaders around the world; giving him stature and, more important, backing for his (fiscal stimulus) approach. Underpinning all of this, though, was the return of New Labour鈥檚 best strategist. It is perhaps significant that the turnaround started within days of Peter Mandelson returning to the fold. Now Brown had not just the best strategy for the rest of the year but potentially a fund of sound strategies to take him through to the next election.

Cameron, on the other hand, ran out of luck. His initial (correct) reaction, of bi-partisanship, lasted just a few hours. Then, following the lead of George Osborne whose luck had been even worse, he returned to Thatcherism; something he had spent years distancing himself from. After being outclassed by Brown, and foolishly denying everything that the great majority of world leaders recommended, his last refuge, again following the lead of Osborne, was to tear out the heart of his manifesto. His Achilles Heel had always been what would his policies be when he was forced to replace the platitudes with reality. Forced to make his first real decision, he did a reverse turn and clinched his commitment to Thatcherism (something many of us had long suspected) by saying he would no longer match New Labour鈥檚 spending plans; and would cut public sector funding, including it seemed that for education and the NHS. His right-wing was delirious. Osborne was just as happy. But The Tories鈥� standing in the polls is plummeting. Luck, and judgment, really is important to politicians.

What would you expect to happen to the polls now? What will happen to Osborne, and Cameron? And can Gordon Brown hold it together, and not fall out with Peter Mandelson, until then?

Asian Tigers

Here is a bit more background. Politicians, local authorities, economic professionals might recognise it as the first draft of The Lion Rampant 18th January 2008, Newstart.



I was asked to produce an assessment of the Scottish Governments economic policy, but it starts with the East Asian Tigers.

Celtic Lion

#5 Barrie

" I am hoping to nip over the boarder"

Will that be the au pair girl?

Celtic

On Baby P is not one of the key factors that the Nazi obsessed batterer was barely literate.

The earlier there is intervention the less likely they are to be social misfits and vulnerable to extremist ideology.

Obviously though that is a long term solution.

But then perhaps the issue of protecting Baby P would not have happened.

On the Election 2009 I wonder if Brown has any choices.

Its probable that by then the current stimulus will not have done the trick and Labour responsibilities in the crash will be highlighted. He will be out of cash and options.

If he doesn't go for it Labour gets wiped out in 2010, if he does he will probably be starting off behind in the polls with little prospect of improvement.

The Tories could buckle under the challenge I suppose.

thegangofone (#9) "On Baby P is not one of the key factors that the Nazi obsessed batterer was barely literate. The earlier there is intervention the less likely they are to be social misfits and vulnerable to extremist ideology."

There are plenty of batterers who are not 'nazi obsssed'. But yes, low IQ (especially verbal IQ) is an important risk factor in criminogenic behaviour. There are lots of people who are barely literate as it's an inevitable function of the normal IQ distribution and males are much more at risk. It appears to be largely genetic, so early intervention as supervision may help, but it's no panacea. Note, being barely literate also makes one less likely hto be able to read and properly understand what national socialism or socialism in one country, or statism actually is.

There are all sorts of extremist ideologies. Some Muslim, some revolutionary Marxist. Pople who batter children have short fuses, low frustration tolerance etc. They tend not to be very bright. What can one do about that if one can't rasie IQ by education? What happens if more and more people who have low ability have children but less of those with ability do? Who will there be to supervise the large numbers welling the underclass? Do you recal what Ian Duncan Smith said?

Going into care even though its overwhelmed with numbers and all the dissatisfactions , disappointments and tragedies that can lead to , is still far better than being beaten to death by primitive Neanderthals !


What happened to that poor baby , and all the millions of poor little mites all over this planet, is a disgraced levelled at all of us who go along with a social system that points its aim at wealth and power as a priority over that of innocent humanity!

Any system can be adjusted in our all our interests if only our hearts were in in the right place !

#6 "David Cameron was riding high in the polls. His excellent PR skills, gained in the one real job he had done, had made him the leader by sheer dint of his likeable image"

No, No, No. A real job involves doing something useful; it must create something of value. PR is a form of advertising. It creates no value (in most cases). It just consumes valuable resources (as well as Cammo types).Its practitioners are mercenary liars, willing to support anything for personal gain, without concern for principle. Just like Cammo.

It is rather perverse that Brown should almost smell of roses, instead of brown. Whilst he does not bear responsibility for the global problem, he will be held accountable if(as predicted) the UK goes into a very severe recession. It seems unlikely Cameron can continue with his stupidity (he is already talking about medium term post recession policy so he can appear to create distance, without actually disagreeing with Brown's obviously correct Keynesian policies.)
I suspect Brown has had it. Only stupidity can lose it for the Tories and there must be people sensible enough to gag Ossie and Cammo.

Did Ossie just blunder on his own (he's very capable) or did Mandy set him up? -->

SCRIPT:

Mandy: I bet an oik like you wouldn't dare say that in public, George.

George: Huh!, I'm an oik am I? ? Well you just wait and see, silly old Mandy! (stamps his foot). I'll show YOU who's an oik.)--And he did!


Ossie an "eminence-grise". Doesn't that mean someone who becomes powerful through wisdom whilst staying in the background? The double negatives don't cancel.

I can just imagine what my old English master would have said to Cammo & Ossie: "You two need a dose of Senapods, boyos".

CHILDREN IN CARE

Could more children who end up in care be adopted?

Perhaps if we spent less money on IVF, more would be adopted and the money saved could be used to improve the prospects for the rest.


Rob Slack

Election 09? Oh gawwd. Like the first appearance in the shops, mid-August, of Xmas, Newsnight has let loose the dogs of idle speculation, hoping to whip up a froth of 'interest'.

I check out the Newsnight newsletter every evening. It almost always confirms my reasons for not watching the programme, or the news broadcasts or taking a daily paper - least of all listening to 'Today' on radio.

I remember the very moment, back in the days when William Hardcastle presented 'The World At One' on R4, that I understood that the noos was part & parcel of the entertainment industry. I don't think the word 'infotainment' had been invented at the time.

I realised that the noos and large chunks of Newsnight et al are either speculation, as in this instance, fabrication [see The Daily Mail daily] or sheer irrelevance. Stories such as "bus falls off cliff in Gujarat. 38 killed" are of interest only to those involved and the authorities of the locale. Here in Bristol, I can do nothing with this information but take it in, feel depressed by yet another sad event somewhere in the world about which I can do absolutely nothing - and then forget it. But a residue of anxiety remains 鈥� and that鈥檚 why I don鈥檛 expose myself to this stuff anymore.

So, speculate away, guys. Election in 09? How about, 鈥淗ow many angels can stand on a pinhead?鈥� Of course, our present A/b Of Cant would say 鈥淚t depends what you mean by a pinhead.鈥� He鈥檚 perfect for this sort of meaningless 鈥榙iscussion鈥�.

Chris Nation. Bristol.

BLOODLINE (#13)

Is one factor for male violence to an infant, that he knows it is not of his blood?
Is it not so that couples, generally, prefer to have a child of their own blood; other options being less attractive.

We would make a far better job of being 'human', if we did not wantonly lose sight of just how animal we are.

thegangofone (#9) "On Baby P is not one of the key factors that the Nazi obsessed batterer was barely literate. The earlier there is intervention the less likely they are to be social misfits and vulnerable to extremist ideology."

There are plenty of batterers who are not 'nazi obsessed'. Low IQ (especially low verbal IQ) is an important factor in criminogenic risk. But there are lots of people who are barely literate as it's an inevitable function of the normal IQ distribution (males are much more at risk criminogenically partly because of their wider IQ range than females and this appears to be largely genetic). Early intervention as supervision may help, but it's no panacea - #22 and #17 the Supernanny idea dosn't look at all viable, nor does much else - rising crime is down to changes to our demographics.

Note that being barely literate means that one is unlikely to be able to read or accurately comprehend what national socialism, 'socialism in one country', or statism actually is. What can one possibly do about that?

People who batter children tend to have short fuses, low frustration tolerance, personality disorders etc etc. What can one do about this if one can't raise IQ by education or change personality? What happens if more and more people who have low ability have children but less of those with ability have children? That is, who will there be in the future to supervise/manage the predicted larger number of people with low ability?

Do you recall what Ian Duncan Smith said when Paxman discussed this on NN with Frank Furedi?

KIDS ON CREDIT

barrie (#15) Given the way that males tend to behave when they find that their partner has been impregnated by someone else, one would have thought that many more people would have caught onto the importance of this point. But no. Then again, most females don't have this concern, as they can always rest assured that when pregnant, their child has at least half of her genes.

Some women, I hate to say, can be more than just a little insensitive/self-centred on this issue. It's a (the?) fundamental inequality which tends to over-ride all talk of equality, which is why cultural marxists used sexual-liberation as a tool to subvert the patriarchal nuclear family.

#15
---"Is one factor for male violence to an infant, that he knows it is not of his blood?

Is it not so that couples, generally, prefer to have a child of their own blood; other options being less attractive."---

Barrie, your points may may be correct. I think they are probably irrelevant to my point.

Firstly, it should be possible to vet potential adopters to keep risk to an acceptably low level.

Secondly, there are many things in life I would like, and would have, if others would pay for them. Alas, I have to manage without. That is life.

(If people are willing to pay for their own IVF, that is their right. I would wish the charge to include a share of research costs.)

I found the issue had been discussed elsewhere in March 2004--link below. There was a range of views.

Rob

Children In Care - is not a act of 'Every Child Matters' They are not loved supported nor stimulated in the way a true parent does. I believe that by disbanding Social Care for Children and allowing Health Visitors to put a dysfunctional family unit right would enable the majority of children to stay with their birth parents. Only in Severe harm cases should a child be placed into care. But the foster care parent needs to behave as a parent to these children and allow them to stay in their homes until that child is ready to leave at its own appropriate age. Foster parents have to come to terms with the fact that a child with birth parent is not fully supported by the state and as such a foster parent has to parent and not just do the job for the money. Social workers should not be about the law, the police deal with GBH and murder and as such the crime commited on a child should be in accordance with criminal law and take to the high court not a secret family court whereby, mistakes on a social workers part or their lawyers are covered up.

Hi this is just a comment about pepole in care i have been homless from a very young age and i was placed into supported lodings in ehdc and then when i just turned 18 they placed me into a council flat and because i was young and did not kno any one in that area i used to spend all my money down the pub were i felt wanted and was not alone. i then started to hav a drink problem and did not recive any help on how to pay my rent and was never told what would happen if i did not i recived a letter stating that i would have to leave my council accomadation because of rent arrers so i left and then the council told me that i had made my self intensonaly homless i also have type 1 diabetes so they could not help any further so i lived ruff for about 2 years were apon i found step by step which is hostle that helps 16 to 26 year olds with accomadtion food and clothing etc. i am now 23 and have progressed through the hostle and have a 1 bedroom flat and a good job. But every day in my area i see it all the time pepole of 16 being put into bed sits with no support the goverment say they are heling but how come if you are 16 and leave home you have also made yourself intensional homless even if there home life is not safe if i had the chance i would like to discuss this further.

also i do somthing called the help groupe which stands for homless education liason project and go to local authoritys schools churches and all sorts of places to talk about how being homless effects you and also to tell the children at the schools there is help out there cause many do not kno that but alot of pepole that i have lived with in the hostle are either care leavers or did not like care thankyou for listening to me ramble

To: Smartsteveallen. I am so sorry that the state treat you and all others in care like a piece of litter that can be disposed of. The way you have managed to pick yourself up is incrediable and dare I say it you probably got that fighting spirit from one of your own parents. Your a better person than I am. But teenagers need support more than ever and it clearly still isnt being given. I would like to see the state actually trying to turn a dysfunctional family around to enable the majority of children to stay with their birth parents by direct support and communication rather than place a child in care, unless that child is suffering severe harm. The state are not good at parenting and social workers hinder a lot of what other professionals try to do for families. Damn you deserved so much more, but your voice was not listened to.

CHILDREN IN CARE

I was surprised to hear Kirsty and the panel on Newsnight jump to the conclusion that we should be building small residential homes as a solution to the problems in the care system. Is this backed by evidence and outcomes? I wonder. I work with children and young people in care on a daily basis and it seems to me that all those that have spent time in a residential unit have, if anything, come out worse off. Before we leap to conclusions, lets see what is really working and producing good outcomes.

BAD JOURNALISM AND NON-SCIENCE

What is happening to Newsnight? It used to draw upon experts on issues such as 'In Care' and approach issues objecively. Now it jus appeals to popular, usually first hand experiential, dramatic anedotal reports as if these were more credible than sound evidence based research.

For the 'In Care' piece you effectively asked the equivalent of cancer victims, a reporter-who'd-been-in-care, a campaigner-who'd been-in-care and a politician chairng a committee looking intio the problem what was happening rather than asking those those who have researched into this.

When your interviewees didn't know the answers (why should they any more than cancer victims?) Kirsty asked them what should be done! Why? We know the state is being privatised - it's policy.

The reality is that children are the genetic progeny of their parents. That's a fact. It's also a fac that much of our beaviour is genetic. Children behave much like their parents. Yes some parents die leaving their children in care, but many others go into care because their parents couldn't cope. They shouldn't have had children. But that's a human right. One has to pass a test o drive a car, but not to have kids. How can that make sense? One has to have licence for a TV or dog, but not for a child.

Inevitably, many of these kids are not able to cope either. To a large extent research indicates that it's because they share the same genes as their parents - who couldn't cope. Why is this so hard to grasp? That there are exceptions does not invalidate the statistical rule - that's just genetics.

They don't 'plummet' as they go into care. What mean (average) are you comparing them with? This is hopelessly ill-informed Lysenkoist (Marxist) reporting where it is assumed the environment makes people not genes, but we know that genes make people.

You are setting up false hopes all round. This makes kids think that it's someone else's fault, and it makes everyone else appropriate blame to others too (e.g. Social Services, 'the government' - i.e 'the environment'). It also misleads young peole into thinkint that they can go into professions which can make a difference when the evidence shows this is not true.

Let's see a few balancing programmes which look into the genetics of all of this..

I am appalled by this (hopefully unwitting) display of ignorance. Look into why the Persistent and Prolific Offender project can identify at risk kids very very very early on. Loiok back at the Monty-Don nonsense. look at HeadStart, SureStart, Aiming High, SEAL...

LEGO FOR BRAINS

You would not expect an infant to build anything of account from a box of Lego. Yet we all complete the construction of our own brains, after birth, using the dysfunctional adults around us as 'templates', such that none of us is too competent as an adult, and some barely register as socially capable.

Because we are animal in most of our function, diminished 'human competence' (mimicked by drinking alcohol) lets many an animal 'off the leash' of higher mentality.

However, if this were ever generally admitted, we would have to rethink a range of official attitudes currently applied in the ordering of society. We would need to 'wise-up'. That won't happen this side of Armageddon.

NEWSNIGHT BEHAVING BADLY (#24)

It's true Newsnight. We watch Paxo's overpaid histrionics, Kirsty's (overpaid) increasingly incomprehensible mumblings and the 'son et lumiere' - shadows on an empty cot - total departure from gravitas, and wonder, as Jaded Jean has posted: "WHAT IS HAPPENING TO NEWSNIGHT". You are behaving as if you know the date for the end of the world and you just don't care about anything any more. I suppose, as 'flagship' for a 成人论坛 in meltdown, you should be congratulated, but can't you have some sort of peasants revolt and lock a few producers (or whatever they call themselves in Birtspeak) in the toilet, while you get back to doing News and Current Affairs?

POPULISM IS NOT LEADERSHIP, IT'S SEDITION

Is it because asking people onto the programme who know what they are talking about (rather than being just able to opine) or that taking seriously what some on the blogs might be saying is deemed too 'elitist'?

I get the feeling that the point that this populism is a very really bad sign of the times when we are clearly in an 'intellectual downturn' just isn't being grasped (present company excepted Barrie etc.) by enough who matter?

LED BY DONKEYS

Question Time tonight had all party ciphers scoring points of other party ciphers, for 'particising' important matters, never realising the Homer Simpson moments they were having. It never occurred to any of them that, if they can do consensus governance SOME of the time, they can do it ALL of the time. We can then vote REAL people into Parliament (instead of rosette stands) and they will get a lot more done in the time currently spent slagging one another off. In other words; SPOIL PARTY GAMES.

Kids in Care - The Real Failure of the System

Thank you Newsnight for showing some interest in this problem. There are organisations for every disadvantage and minor inconvenience in our society. However for the most consistently disadvantaged group (not as a result of war, famine, disaster or illness) churned out of the care system every day with nothing more quite often than their broken wits to get them through there is nothing or no one that they can turn to in the way of support in the very shocking crisis that is their life aftercare.

Islington social services worked overtime to get kids from care housed. The narrow minded bigots who made up Islington housing department however worked tirelessly to make them homeless for getting into financial difficulties. Representing the same authority that was the (parent) but fashioned out of an ignorance that can't abide a housing queue jumper they had absolutely no sympathy for those from care. I could tell of the horrors of this London authority's assaults on kids from care backgrounds. Its like one parents giving and doing their best for you handing you over to the other who starts beating you senseless when there is no longer a protective eye on you.
To the Beeb, why not put cat among the pigeons or Paxman among the burghers and get the story of how this London borough dealt with aftercare knowing as it did that there was widespread sexual abuse among this group as a result of extreme negligence by this authority in the 70s and 80s.
Care leavers have always been crapped on.

where is my post i can you let me know if you are not going to put it up???

Thanks!!!!!

chenzxl (#29) At face valkue (which is never a sound way to operate) what you say is admirable But lookk at this more critically as ot explains the strains:

Tower Hamlets (which is not far from Islington, Hackney, Harringey or Newham) is under 25% White British at 7 years of age. any of the schools in Islington have similar proportions.

Some peple in different ethnic groups can have radically differerent behaviour codes. Many people looking at the statistics have no idea what the problems are that public services have to deal with in these areas.

They can not cope. Any more than Pakistan, Bangladesh or Turkey can.

Do you appreciate why I say that? Believing in panaceas which have no empirical basis to substaniate them is just a way of letting a disaster happen through wishful thinking (lack of due diligence (arrogance)).

It's exactly what free-marketeers want as they profit from the private sector. Why is it so hard to see that they fund anarchism/Trotskyism but not statism (i.e. Stalinistic Old Labour)? See Russian, see Georigia, see Ukraine ('Platon Elenin)..

Still, evidently some here know better?

Just watched Tuesdays Newsnight:

So BNP members are Sun readers and generally a bit thick! I think you could say the same about labour members.

" I vote labour because they are for the working man"....maybe once long ago buddy but not anymore.
Thats the kind of people that decides the fate of this country and as i have always said... democracy can be a flawed and dangerous system. Maybe a standard IQ test should be passed first before the right to vote is given, some simple questions could be included in this test such as:
if Jerermy Paxman, Kirsty Wark and the other fella gave a third of their salary towards the Congo relief fund, how long would their combined donations last a thousand Congolese dispossessed and hungry?
A: a week
B:a fortnight
or C: a decade.
(answer coming up)

I've not got the stats on people who live in a bubble but they can be generally found up their own rectum with a copy of the Guardian in hand and many work at the 成人论坛. Maybe Crick can tell us the stats and the shocking discovery that some have been found to be..er...semi skilled. "Jesus H Christ!"
Would he be so gleeful in delivering this news?

Answer to the hypothetical IQ question:
neither as most of the cash will be lost to charity consultants, the greasing of palms, the warlords and like all African leaders in receipt of charity, a big slice has to be taken first to purchase the much needed fleet of blacked-out-limousines and a couple of jets..leaving very little for the real needy in the "Democratic Republic" of Congo.

Seriously, I do hope aid can get through to help the needy but we've all been here before and i don't think charity is the answer to all the African failed states troubles and strife...a different approach needs to be considered.

JadedJean: thanks for that link you left last week ( or the week before) about the history of PC, it was very informative, although i had to watch it twice as i am a daily Mail reader and er.. semi-thick:)

oh.. the 'other fella' was Gavin..sorry Gav.

having spent 18 years as a foster parent there is one thing that is a fact the care system does not care about children only bugets the system is geared for children to fail after the age of 16 you have leaving care teams(althouggh this name has been dropped as not pc)whos object is to remove children as fast as possible the fatal words i want to leave care often uttered in temper after a minor incident triggers the fast forward button in the system promises of support and assistance and accomadation etc until there out and some elses buget has the problem there is not a team saying stay put take advantage of education get a good start in life only the foster parents

The Gord giveth*:



...and the Gord taketh away:



Now, which would you vote for? Any how many of you (a key point, I'd hazard)

Ain't helping democratic process along wonderful?

*Presumably in anticipation of all the extra 'work' that will be required assessing, checking, arguing in court, paying out compo, etc regarding policy 2...

An intersting debate last light. So, can we now start to predict when the next UK election will be? In this context, over recent weeks some important new factors have emerged:

1. The outcome of that election is, for the first time in months, now balanced between New Labour and the Tories; but, even though the Tories have just lost nearly 20% in the polls, that balance is probably only 鈥榞uaranteed鈥� for a year or so until the recovery starts and the electorate move on to different issues.
2. For that year just one issue, the recession, will dominate; where New Labour wins hands down on this issue. Furthermore it is the one issue where Gordon Brown seems at ease with himself.
3. With the return of Peter Mandelson, its most brilliant politician, New Labour have at last recovered an ability to think strategically and to plan tactically for such an election; as long as he and Brown stay together.
4. On the other side David Cameron has at last been forced to nail his colours to the mast; and they are those of unadulterated Thatcherism, thus reopening exactly the same blue water which has seen the Tories lose every election since 1992. At the same time his own closest adviser, George Osborne, has lost his way and seems to have persuaded the Tories to take on the combined strategy of most of the world鈥檚 leaders.
5. The peak of this uneven contest is likely to come next April when the G20 meet in London to endorse Brown鈥檚 policy and his position as an 鈥榦utstanding world leader鈥�.
6. Immediately following that meeting it will seem reasonable for Brown to call a UK election to endorse the G20 recommendations. With, by then, a significant lead in the polls it will also look very opportune for New Labour.

So, look to next May for the national election. Not least, running it at the same time as the local and European elections later in June, as your pundits suggested, will risk diluting the single (economy) issue.

GORDON BROWN AT EASE WITH HIMSELF ?(#36)

I have never seen Brown at ease with himself.

(1) absent finger nails at near-60.
(2) persistent stutter at PMQs.
(3) 'autistic' inability to understand the 'smile issue'.
(4) utterances peppered with gauche (pleading) incongruencies.
(5) pious deceit: repeat announcement of same money and the 10p farce / moral compass.
(6) the whole Blair fiasco.
(7) 'right honourable', routine, non-answering of questions at PMQs (no rectitude, no honour).
(8) immoral capitulation over Tibet for political advantage with China.

Brown is not an anomaly, he is typical. The party system, ensures we vote to Westminster driven wannabes whom the ethos of that place strips of of virtue, integrity, altruism, honour and humility; and from whom, the Browns, Blairs and Thatchers are DISTILLED!
NB: distillation concentrates the base essence of these ill-at-ease individuals, and governance is ever damned under them.

IRONICALLY

thecookieducker (#33) " Maybe a standard IQ test should be passed first before the right to vote is given, some simple questions could be included in this test such as: if Jerermy Paxman, Kirsty Wark and the other fella gave a third of their salary towards the Congo relief fund, how long would their combined donations last a thousand Congolese dispossessed and hungry?"

The right to vote used to be given almost that way, they just used a proxy for intelligence. The ruling class which knew what was going on because they were managing it had the vote. Then we had a Civil War, after which the people who had a vote still had to have the ability to know what they were doing. Then, over the years, a miracle happened, everyone became equal.

Some people wonder why so many politicians talk such clap-trap - is it not because they've been advised by their 'researchers' that that's all that much of their electorate can grasp?

The typically emotive Congo appeal/advert strategically placed just before the 'In Care' piece) Newsnight piece was appalling, as was the Newsnight piece itself.

Teenagers have tantruns indeed.....Late 'childhood' is also the period when offending behavour peaks. The poor dears. But see for how this was made worse (se foot of page) - the recent passing of the Offender Management Act has now effectively put probation on probation having already privatised its intervention functions. Note that Newsnight didn't cover any of this, any more than it did the Employment Bill or the ETS report on or .

None of this was 'sparkly' or emotive enough I guess. In the meantime, we keep importing more problems for the future , breeding them at home and appealing for donations to help solve 'care' problems in places from whence we import them.

It's a shame that no one was on the programme last night to challenge David Kidney MP when he talked about the ten pilot projects to enable young people to stay with their foster carers until 21.

The fact is that there are already a number of schemes across the country that do this, in Northern Ireland, for example, all young people in foster care who are in some kind of education, training or employment can stay until 21. There is also a lot of reseach to show that outcomes are far better if young people have the security and support they need to make a successful transition to adult life. It also helps that they are a few years older and more mature.

This is no time for pilot projects - there are care leavers who make a success of their lives against the odds but this isn't possible for all. The stats paint a bleak picture. That's why the Government should gather the information it needs from the projects already in existence and go for a national roll out of the projects. If it waits until the results from the pilots are back - the projects last three years - the Government is effectively condemning the next generation of care leavers to an uncertain future that is far more likely to see them failing to finish school, in prison, using mental health services and unemployed.

urchin76 (#39) 'against the odds'.

Give that term some VERY hard-nosed thought.

with a track record in finance that has exposed the uk to the worst mess in western civilisation why should anyone believe Gordon has a successful track record? Are people on opium?

it is gordon who sleep walked into this. It was gordon that so terrified the FSA that they confess they were 'afraid' to regulate. Gordon demonstrated no understanding of the risks, no courage in taking 'difficult decisions' like slowing borrowing or saving money.

Rather he demonstrates a strategy that turns its back on massive employment creation in say a feed in tariff that would generate billions in income democratise energy and redistribute wealth to the poorest people in society.

the govt are not and never have been focussed on finance but on politics. Which is why we have more meddle based on muddle.

gordon is not the person to get the uk out of this. His strategy got us into it.

I thought this was fun for a Friday...

[Warning - strong language used in subheads - no more than a typical minute on broadcast these days, mind]

[Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]

As the BNP hopefully slides back into the minor, if cautionary niche such organisations will always occupy, I was watching a documentary last night on Night of the Long Knives, and the part it played in cementing Hitler's power base by crushing the SA, which was deemed a tad too extreme even for most Nazis jockeying for control over the masses.

What most struck me was the highly effective part played by the state media, who explained it all away to the evident satisfaction of the public, who got seduced into being rather too comfortable being told what to think by a government/media 'elite' (not sure if they had to pay a fee for it in 1934, mind). Didn't work out so well, as I recall.

Let's see how well history unfolds this time. Knives can have two edges.

成人论坛 NEWSNIGHT

BREAKING NEWS!

Bernie Eccelstone's wife to set up rival F1






And later in the programme:

Croydon mum has quadruplets
Morrisons to cut the cost of carrots
Discount socks at M&S
MPs demand a higher rate of repossession.


Another 'stormer' from Newsnight, the voice of the people.


GC

EU website launches with a picture of Hitler, then crashes



No connection, I am sure:)

All these stats are very shocking but I'd like to see the corresponding statistics for at risk children who stay with their families.
This is terrible but I hope it's better than leaving them with their families.

Children in care

Baby P is an extreme case of family violence and shouldn't be generalized without discretion. When family breaks down, children are better off staying with close relatives or adopted parents rather than living in care. These children are particularly vulnerable, as they probably feel rejected or unwanted while growing up. They need a proper, stable family with elders who can provide them with unconditional love and treat them as one of their own. 'A youth club' with game room, common hall, and individual dorm is nothing in resemblance of a home. Likewise, social workers who have 20 or 30 kids to look after at the same time can't replace the role of parents. Your short film says it all really. When things get a little tough, foster mom calls in the police...

After my parents started having problems when I was still a baby, I was sent to live with my grandparents and uncle. Despite the odds, I still did well in school thanks to them who showered me with love and the fact that my mum came back to me after she and dad finally broke it off. Having said so, I still developed depression in my teenage years and have my fair share of abandonment issues just like the other kids who came from a broken family. I don't think people realize just how fragile children's hearts can be.

Thanks for bringing up this important issue to our attention. I look forward to watching your follow-up stories.

#16 Jaded_Jean

There are indeed other extremes ideologies but my point is it takes a person of quite a low IQ to fall for the rhetoric of such a failed ideology.

As ever your IQ and genetics psycho-babble is vacuous rubbish.

I am sure that people of your ilk will never get near power.

When ordinary people read :

"....somebody has to stand up against cultural Marxism, political correctness and anti-fascism.." - they may note the ANTI-fascism.

Or

"Hitler, Mussolini and Roosevelt did what they did in the 1930s (essentially running planned economies) because of the catastrophic financial mess which had been brought about by anarcho-capitalist 'democratic' deregulators peddling the merits of 'freedom'. Yet you and others of your ilk are still naively arguing for precisely this." - they may think freedom is not such a bad thing and that a fascist who argues against democracy is a subversive.

Or

ludicrous and meaningless hokum statistics from the thirties that purport to show Jewish survival statistics undermine in some way that the Holocaust happened. Though you quote the statistics you say you do not DENY the Holocaust but don't AFFIRM it either. So quite muddle headed and unable to take in basic historic facts.

So on balance you and the other related logins appear to be racist (if you describe yourself as a race realist the average punter will make the connection) propagandists who are ultimately only interested in subverting democracy.

thegangofone (#47) First off, you need to understan that the Lisbon Treaty's means that parties like the BNP is lawfully constituted and protected by the the Fundamental Rights Charter, as are its members. You appear to think that you have the right to deprive them of these rights, although you don't say on what legal basis. I suggest you need to think about this.

Secondy, neither IQ (psychometrics) nor genetics is 'psychobabble. That you don't understand this is an indication of your inability to understand what you read, and your level of education perhaps.

Thirdly, cultural Marxism (political correctness) and anti-fascism are elements of a well known Jewish led political movement of the far left.

Fourthly, the reference to Hitler, Mussolini and Roosevelt was to an article at the Austrian School of Economics Von Mises (the home of Anarcho-Capitalism) site. You should read it.

Fifthly, you need to get a better grap of demographics. Explain the low TFR but high population.

Finally, you don't understand what racism is.

INCONGRUITY IN IMMATURITY

Anyone out there prepared to address why we accept war (now predominantly waged on civilians) with countless deaths, injuries and a traumatised 'residue', and then go wild over one, albeit harrowing, death?
Just consider the mutilations of war that some , right now, are enduring. I can name individuals who 'did' that; they are not in custody.

Might it be that we are all children to the day we die - never getting any idea how to improve on the status quo? Led by the nose?
For example: we celebrate all big 'occasions' with military display. We celebrate lesser ones with alcohol. Yet war and alcohol are two of the greatest scourges of our species. What message does this pass to the next generation? No philosophy; no wisdom; no wonder we just get more pear-shaped.

The baby was battered and broken by a culture that delivers battered brokenness on a whim - British culture. And I have not touched on psychological battery of millions in these islands.

If you are interested in becoming a foster carer.
You can find out more information here.
There is a national shortage of over 10,000 carers.


There is a need especially for people who can take brother/sister groups of 2 or more, older children 8 plus and teenagers and children with severe disabilities.

A Council will around 拢350 per week in fees and allowances if you foster a teenager with one or more challenging behaviours.

Nottingham City needs carers too. Info here


Fostering is rewarding and will really make a difference to a child in care.

Dear Newsnight

The following are my personal views.

I was disappointed that you did not give out information about how to become a foster carer on your piece on Children in Care tonight. You gave appeal information for the Congo situation but did not make people aware that there are 10,000 more foster carers needed in the UK. As there is a move by Government to increase the professionalism of the children's workforce getting through assessments to become carers will become more difficult - this will put more pressure on the system.

Even to have said "If you wish to become a foster carer contact your local council" would have been helpful.

Maybe you should have contacted BAAF (
British Association for Adoption & Fostering) to be a spokesperson for foster carers as they would have added some useful information to he show.

Council's such as Nottingham City take their Corporate Parenting responsibilities very seriously. We actively seek to help children leaving care get jobs with the Council. That is just one of the many positive steps we take to try and improve outcomes for the young people.

Ref Residential homes - I believe all the local homes have only 6 places. These are small units and there is a high ratio of residential social workers to young people.

I do think that the Government need to prioritise funding so that young people in care can stay with their carers until they are 21 or ready to leave the system. Without an investment into carers this willnot happen.

Each young person leaving care is given intense support to make plans around education, jobs, living, accommodation etc.

Please in you follow up pieces make sure you give people the opportunity to find out more about how they can become carers. You have public duties - please fulfill them.

Regards
Paul B

Well, this... 44. At 1:03pm would have made more sense if allied to this... 42. At 12:55pm, so try this by way of one degree of separation:



I guess the use of naughty words is cause for concern chez Aunty, on today of all days.

#49 Barrie

You aren't asking those fundamental questions you have advised others not to ask are you?

Actually I was thinking on the same questions myself today today.

Is it something to do with this allegiance between your friends in the 'House' and the media?

Is it something to do with coverage?

Is is something to do with the politicians, being able to shed crocodile tears over deaths they didn't cause, rather than let coverage drift to deaths they did?

Is it something to do with the baby you write about that develops it's thought processes from an already poisoned society? Perpetuating the evil by accepting it as the norm.

Is it because the media and everyone are just not asking why why why enough of our and global society and culture?

Why when we look back at history, is it seen as an ever changing paradigm of belief, so why do we not constantly challenge the one we are in?

Why when the threat to our lives is the damage we are doing to the Earth, why do members of the Royal family go into the military and not become ecologists, zoologists, oceanographers or climate scientists. Why do the media not challenge this, and why do they pander to this absurdity?

So many whys and not many answers. Why at this stage of our evolution should we need to be asking whys?

Why?

Celtic Lion

CL #53

Because our leaders are the wrong people? The wrong sort of people. They care only for themselves.

Now there's a thing. As I hit the 'Post comment' button the iTunes (on shuffle) came up with June tabor's "No Mans Land".

Give it a listen.

I must say I'd appreciate being guided to wherever it is explained what the extra services or efforts provided are that such bonuses would be paid for. Whilst rather discredited in the private sector (if news reports are anything to go on), I can sort of see how this works IF (hence the discredited bit, to be sure) enough extra money is generated through exceptional performance to warrant financial rewards as a consequence.

So in fact I'd be keen to know how this works for all civil servants so blessed, who seldom seem much troubled by way of competition or indeed most normal business concerns with market conditions. As Mr. Humphrys so eloquently outlined the other day with Mr. Green, dealing with audiences and consequent revenues is not something he'd want to be having to worry about.

But then I guess it may just be a price we pay for market rate talent. Or maybe it's just a thank you for not always blowing, say, the odd 拢1.2M of licence fee payers' money on some bad calls (in all senses of the word)?

#55 New Fazer

For someone of a motor cycle licence of 47 years 'iTunes shuffle' was impressive enough.

Had a listen

"And did they really believe you when you told them the cause
Did they really believe that this war would end wars?

Well the suffering, and the sorrow, the glory of pain
The killing and dying they were all done in vain"

Has a similar rhythm when read as Wish You Were Here by....

And did you exchange a walk on part in the war for a lead role in a cage?


I was thinking today of suspension failure. Had some of it covered as a former metallurgist.

Eg on Manta the front chassis rails corrode. People keep welding them up, and welding them up. Without realising it is the bushes seizing causing this:



Very few people realise it. That is because very few people are metallurgists.

Replacing a seized bush can reduce corrosion. It is another example of treating symptoms rather than causes.

When 9/11 kicked off I got home at tea time from work. The kids were obviously concerned something had gone on and were worried.

I went into the living room rummaged through the free with Daily ...draw. Put this on and we all had a dance.




Celtic Lion

#53 New Fazer

"They care only for themselves"

I can't believe after so many years on bikes, this would be unfamiliar.



Celtic

You need to start asking the right questions!

Not a single politician, not one commentator or presenter (including you) and certainly not a single 'expert' in the news has correctly identified the two interlinked problems the world is facing today:

1. The little financial difficulty: True, it started with sub-prime mortgages, BUT it is far deeper than that. After all the total of sub-prime mortgages is reported as being some $1.5 trillion, whereas Governments have so far pump close to $10 trillion into the banks. If the problem was just sub-prime mortgages, or 'banks not lending to each other', this $10 trillion cash injection would have solved in one go.

No, the problem is 'derivatives'. These debts and bets are worth some $500 trillion. Compare that to the GDP of the whole planet of just $50 trillion and you get some idea why this fantastic burden of debt can NEVER be repaid.

The only solutions are
a) hyperinflation to degrade the whole of that debt (following Zimbabwe)or
b) legal cancellation of all derivative contracts (!!) or
c) collapse of the whole financial system incl just about all banks, and starting all over again.
We need to choose one and go for it. The future is bleak whatever Gordon does, but pumping borrowed money into the economy in the utterly vain hope of recovery is just about the worst possible strategy.

2. The little problem of Energy and Growth.
Next year the world production of crude oil will, for the first time in history, decline for geological, not political or economic, reasons. Peak Gas will follow some 10 years later.

2008 is the end of the Era of Growth (as growth is predicated on the availability of cheap energy) and the start of the Era of Decline.

No matter what investment is made in oil or gas fields, the total production from 2009 onwards will decline every single year by perhaps 4%, thus our energy sources will halve every 20 years or so. This has already happened in 60 oil producing countries around the world, incl USA (1972) and UK(1999) and now, in 2009, global production will begin to decline.

The 1930s depression was bad enough, but this decline will be on a massively larger scale. To start with, it will be at least 40 years long. 40 years will take us to about 25% of current energy usage, which is what we can expect from all renewable sources combined. So at that stage, provided Governments have been wise enough to have invested massively in renewable energy, renewables may be able to take over from fossil fuels and perhaps stabilise the world economy.

So, what should we do now? I suggest:
a) embrace the Green New Deal (拢50 billion per year invested in renewables)
b) forget about tax cuts or other increases in current spending, they won鈥檛 do any good anyway and just add more and more to national (mine and yours) debt
c) choose one of the strategies above for the self inflicted financial crisis - and follow through
d) and go sustainable (if you can't continue doing the same thing for say 100 years without damage, then its not sustainable

CL #57

I bought my first computer in 1982. I've been using Macs in my work now for 20 years so the fact I can work iTunes doesn't impress me so much. What DOES impress me is how worn my knee sliders are!

& #58

I blame most of my hearing damage on too many Hawkwind concerts.

#60 New Fazer

Nice one!

I think you get a lot of hearing damage from just the wind buffeting etc with a full face helmet.

I remember after a long journey not being able to hear for a while, esp if it was going to or from a Hawkwind concert.

Just watched a bit of the x-factor results show. Really impressed with the Same Difference new single. They must have had some good song writers don't know if it was a Diane Warren et al composition. Rock/mainstream crossover.

Try this but don't look at the video etc, because of the presentation of image. It's really good feel good stuff, that I can imagine the young kids will be listening too.

If I hadn't seen Same Difference doing it I would have been hard placed to guess. But don't know who engineers, producers, writers, session players are. It might not make it because of image etc, but I think its a great song just on the listening.

Reaching for the sun.

This is love! This is life!
This is good! This is great!
This is all that we鈥檝e believed in!

All this time, all the tears,
All the prayers, all these years,
We鈥檝e waited on this feeling鈥�

Together! Together! We鈥檙e coming undone.
Together! Together! Baby, We R One!



I admit it starts Lionel Ritchie-ish, but to me it then it has an anthemic Bon Jovi quality. This could be any stadium rock track. (on 3rd listen it ends on a Hawkwind wssssshhhhh).

It will be interesting to see how it does. It might disappear dismissed as a cheesy, finished 3rd, X Factor, brother/sister duo.

I could headbang to it between Silver Machine and Highway to Hell.

With all the bad news in the news and culture I am interested to see how a 'musically' constructed uplifting rock anthem does against that background.

Having worked a bit in music doing concert technical managing, my ear says it should do well. Some critics have panned it because it is Same Difference, my ear says otherwise. It is for the kids.

Let the charts (democracy) decide.

Celtic Lion

PS Perhaps I should have put this in Newsnight Review.