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Ahmadinejad's defiance could increase chances of war

Mark Urban | 18:01 UK time, Thursday, 14 October 2010


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Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon has given his many admirers there a chance to cheer him, and hear at first hand his defiant oratory.

Of course the great majority of those who turned out to see him are Lebanese who share his Shia beliefs, and also support Hezbollah.

Mr Ahmadinejad stressed though that he was speaking to all Lebanese, trying to shrug off the image of someone with sectarian appeal in that divided country.

While the Iranian president is naturally the darling of the Shia community, it is only fair to say that his determination to defy the United States and the international community more widely has won him widespread support - at least at the rhetorical level - across the Arab world.

His stance on the nuclear issue is of course central to his appeal to that wider constituency.

Iran's position - that it's nuclear programme is entirely civilian in character, but that Iran is entitled to resist people who wish to make sure of that - is nonsensical to many Westerners.

Double speak

If that country is simply intent on generating nuclear energy, why cause such difficulties to UN inspectors or reject international offers to enrich uranium overseas on Iran's behalf? Why put up with the hassle of UN sanctions or the threat of air strikes if all you're after is electric power?

To many in the Middle East though the answer is obvious - since Iran insists upon its "right" to run all aspects of its nuclear programme without foreign interference, challenging the inspection regime or the wishes of the White House is precisely what gives Mr Ahmadinejad his status as a bulwark against the Americans or Zionists.

And indeed there must be many of his supporters who earnestly hope that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, but would understand why Mr Ahmadinejad cannot state that openly.

This type of double speak not only has precedents but, it might be argued, is actually a defining characteristic of those who capture the imagination of the "Arab street" and seek to lead it.

Osama bin Laden did not try, personally and directly, to claim responsibility for 9/11. Millions of his supporters insisted both that he had not done it - blaming various forms of conspiracy for the attacks - and that he was a great man. Why was he great if he hadn't done anything?

To many a Western mind, bin Laden or his supporters' double-think on this issue was incomprehensible and infuriating. Tony Blair's first "dossier" - a Joint Intelligence Committee paper declassified at his insistence for public use - was not the one on Iraq, it was an analysis of why bin Laden was responsible for 9/11.

However, the Cairo cabbie or the Hezbollah militiaman apparently accept that evasion and deception are intrinsic parts of the struggle against the US or Israel because there are times when those powers might wreak terrible vengeance on their enemies.

Standing against the West

Best to wrong foot them with some clever rhetoric, avoidance of specifics, or downright lies. The problem of course with this type of double speak is that it increases the scope for misperception and even accidental war.

Saddam Hussein qualified as another of those who sought leadership of the wider Arab or Muslim community by standing as a bulwark against the West.

Some of his darkly vague phrases about what might happen to Israel if it attacked Iraq were almost identical to Mr Ahmadinejad's recent promises of "war without limits".

Saddam though talked up his powers to such a degree that he could not in the end admit even to his own generals that he did not have any weapons of mass destruction any more. Even when the survival of his regime was at stake, the Iraqi president could not give full co-operation to Hans Blix and his UN inspectors.

So, today, Iran's desire to enjoy the support of what Iranian ideologues term "the oppressed" by thumbing its nose at the UN or US President Barack Obama, may be a crowd pleaser in southern Lebanon, but it could be increasing the chances of war.

While the White House still pins its hopes on the new sanctions package voted through the UN Security Council in June, there are voices murmuring warnings with increasing urgency about the progress of Iran's continuing uranium enrichment programme.

Those whisperers include some of the "usual suspects" one might expect such as Mossad or MI6. However, those who argue that a military option has to be prepared also include such influential figures as Robert Gates, Mr Obama's defence secretary.

Today, in a speech at Beirut University the Iranian president pledged to press on with the nuclear programme accusing the West of trying to, "keep us in the dark".

It was typical Ahmadinejad defiance - but it was also the type of language that is strengthening the hand of those in the Pentagon or Israel who believe that a military option could be required to stop Iran's nuclear programme.

Watch my film on Newsnight tonight - Thursday 14 October 2010 at 10.30pm on 成人论坛 Two.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.

    IS IT A CULTURAL THING? HAVE WE BEEN HERE BEFORE?

    "Double speak

    If that country is simply intent on generating nuclear energy, why cause such difficulties to UN inspectors or reject international offers to enrich uranium overseas on Iran's behalf? Why put up with the hassle of UN sanctions or the threat of air strikes if all you're after is electric power?"


    This is not my usual field, but isn't Iran close enough to Iraq to draw a meaningful parallel between two leaders' behaviour?

    I was led to believe that Sadam allowed himself to be 'Shock n Awed' to oblivion - then hanged, rather than admit he was 'just kidding' regarding WMD. Might PRIDE/LOSS OF FACE be important in those strange and fabled lands? Could it be the arrogant Englishman fails - as ever - to understand his 'enemy', and comes unstuck for that very reason?

    Maybe Kipling had some useful insights.

  • Comment number 2.

    "Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's visit to Lebanon has given his many admirers there a chance to cheer him, and hear at first hand his defiant oratory."

    luckily access to presstv means that we too can listen to it without contamination from our media outlets.

    "If that country is simply intent on generating nuclear energy, why cause such difficulties to UN inspectors or reject international offers to enrich uranium overseas on Iran's behalf? Why put up with the hassle of UN sanctions or the threat of air strikes if all you're after is electric power?"

    iran did sign upto pretty much what the usa had wanted with its turkish-brazilian deal. it was the usa-uk who sought to ignore it.

    iran has every right to vet inspectors who enter its country, it is common fact that the usa employed spies as inspectors whilst in iraq.

    as for threats, iran has to prove a negative, as with saddam. it has to put up with threats because the west is not interested in diplomatic resolution.

    "This type of double speak not only has precedents but, it might be argued, is actually a defining characteristic of those who capture the imagination of the "Arab street" and seek to lead it."

    our politicians do it , why not ahmedinejad. why do you have double standards?

    "Why was he great if he hadn't done anything?"
    because he stated the realities of the arab street under usa interference and despotic arab leaderships.

    the difficulty i have with 9/11 is the bit where one is able to learn to fly commercial airliners for some considerable distance and with pin point accuracy target the twin towers for example solely through flight simulators and in a matter of a few months. any explanations ?

    "However, the Cairo cabbie or the Hezbollah militiaman apparently accept that evasion and deception are intrinsic parts of the struggle against the US or Israel because there are times when those powers might wreak terrible vengeance on their enemies."

    certainly 9/11 happened but the hard evidence as far as im aware against bin laden is pretty minimal. it was hatched plotted in germany, the training in the usa and the perpetrators saudis and moroccans

    "Best to wrong foot them with some clever rhetoric, avoidance of specifics, or downright lies. The problem of course with this type of double speak is that it increases the scope for misperception and even accidental war."

    actually ahmedinejad is not afraid of specifics and is more honest in his perceptions than our leaders and media.

    "Some of his darkly vague phrases about what might happen to Israel if it attacked Iraq were almost identical to Mr Ahmadinejad's recent promises of "war without limits"."

    cant but help feel that youre making the case for war against iran.

    "So, today, Iran's desire to enjoy the support of what Iranian ideologues term "the oppressed" by thumbing its nose at the UN or US President Barack Obama, may be a crowd pleaser in southern Lebanon, but it could be increasing the chances of war."

    but he is not thumbing his nose, quite the opposite he is asking for dialogue as equals , without pre conditions.

    he is not threatening war he is responding to our threats of war, he is not asking for war - quite the opposite , it is the usa, israel who are threatening dire consequences and the threat of war.

    "there are voices murmuring warnings with increasing urgency about the progress of Iran's continuing uranium enrichment programme."
    but nothing about israels arsenal of nuclear weapons. nothing about israels non compliance to un resolutions and un reports that suggest war crimes.

    the iaea claim no material is diverted and it is under continual observation via cctv. so wheres the beef?

    "It was typical Ahmadinejad defiance - but it was also the type of language that is strengthening the hand of those in the Pentagon or Israel who believe that a military option could be required to stop Iran's nuclear programme."

    words dont kill. so the real problem is his defiance, his nerve in standing up against the neo con agenda .. for not being supine and compliant like others in the region.

    why the narrative against iran when all of it can be easily ridiculed and argued against with facts on the ground .. but instead we get the war narrative.




  • Comment number 3.

    "Could it be the arrogant Englishman fails - as ever - to understand his 'enemy', and comes unstuck for that very reason?"

    oh we understand the enemy, but the wealth is more important and claiming stupidity absolves us all of a crimes against humanity.

  • Comment number 4.

    ..Iran's position - that it's nuclear programme is entirely civilian in character, but that Iran is entitled to resist people who wish to make sure of that - is nonsensical to many Westerners..

    only to those whose arrogance and inflated self appointed superiority degrades their power to reason. Suppose Easterners said the uk could only have wmd if they were inspected by Easterners? Is there a level of arrogance in the neocons that did not die in Iraq or Afghanistan yet.

    ...Those whisperers include some of the "usual suspects" one might expect such as Mossad or MI6. ...

    Sawyers is an anti iran hardliner who gave a shocking biased performance in the Iraq Inquiry as did most of the FOachiks. As for the passport fakers and with their internet warfare team who target the uk what credibility do they have? They are not on 'our' side you know.

    ..It was typical Ahmadinejad defiance..

    who died and made us God? Defiance is a pejorative description of what is going on. A lot like David Milliband Dog state theory that there are countries that need to be 'brought to heel'?

    Is it not the case USA wargamers have shown there is no winnable outcome for any attack on iran? Gwynne Dyer: There's no way for the U.S. to win a non-nuclear war with Iran



    so why the tea cup rattling? are we mushrooms?

    The greater threat to world peace are those who launched a cyber wmd into the iranian computers. They pose a greater threat to the uk than iran.

    In the chinese military assessment non state actors with cyber wmd and financial 'wmd' [Unrestricted Warfare, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui] can bring down nation states or set them back generations. Did you read what they said about Soros and the Asian Crisis?




  • Comment number 5.

    2

    ..but instead we get the war narrative...

    yes. the uk establishment is not neutral. The RAF have been practice bombing iranian targets. One might wonder what the reaction would be if Iran was practise bombing uk targets with a constant threat of invasion to rid the uk of wmd. A uk they could legitimately say that has proven itself a belligerent aggressor that ignores the UN and provides fabricated evidence as pretexts to illegal war? A Uk that has an unstable warmongering political class that is a threat to world peace. A UK that previously instigated an anti democratic coup in Iran and installed a puppet tyrant. That is the uk track record.

    one has to assume, because there is no logic to the uk position, its just institutional rcst supremacy. Seduced by the old false beliefs of 'we run the world'. When, in reality, we can't even run a bank.

    I blame Carlton house and its wall sized images of 'natives' gratefully bowing down to white colonial masters. The FO needs to move into a small building full of glass walls to remind them they can't withstand a bomb attack so don't start vexacious wars abroad.

  • Comment number 6.

    Mark Urban.

    just saw your piece on Newsnight, impressive and deserving of respect, the undisputed master of propaganda, himself, could not have delivered a better 'analysis'.

  • Comment number 7.

    double standard, propoganda,war just for profit of politicans
    i just hate all of that...
    when saddam use WMA he was good man and nobody told any thing because he was an ally.but then without WMA he was a treat to the world because he turned against us.
    just sorrey for soldiers in Iraq.poor soldiers dying for politican intentions...

  • Comment number 8.

    "Ahmadinejad's defiance could increase chances of war"

    but not "Obama's defiance" or "Cameron's defiance" or "the West's defiance"

    And spot the references to:

    "double speak" and "double-think"

    which apply to Iran and "those who capture the imagination of the 'Arab street' and seek to lead it."

    But does NOT apply to Western leaders.

    Balanced and impartial analysis from the 成人论坛?

    Mark Urban: exponent of newspeak on behalf of Western power.

    David Cromwell
    Co-Editor, Media Lens

  • Comment number 9.

    Double speak eh? Last time I recall Newsnight citing Orwell was when they did a propaganda piece during the Russian intervention in South Ossetia.

    Now we have to suffer Urban, who - having taken some time out from bigging up the UK military intervention in various countries - decides to focus on the Iranian nuclear threat (which he delivers as fact). Urban wheels out an Israeli and a Brit who proceed to talk about the threat that Iran poses to the world, whilst there is a total failure to mention the very real existence of Israeli nuclear weapons which are ready for use.

    Now correct me if I'm wrong, but the 成人论坛 are supposed to provide a balanced news output for their viewers and licence fee payers; yet, all we get are propagandists for NATO and for Israel. Newsnight has yet again failed their obligations to the 成人论坛 charter, which is not worth the paper it is written on.

  • Comment number 10.

    The 成人论坛 likes to focus on the threats that Iran have made to Israel as a subsequent casus belli. What the 成人论坛 ignores is the constant sabre rattling of Israel. Only in the past few days has a member of the Israel parliament, Aryeh Eldad said

    "The state of Israel, is today in a position to assassinate, in southern Lebanon, the man who delegitimises our very existence and threatens to annihilate us. To assassinate Ahmadinejad today is like assassinating Hitler in 1939"

    When Prime Minister Netanyahu was asked whether his government has considered assassinating Ahmadinejad in Lebanon, he would only say "We consider with reason what needs to be done to protect the state."

    You'll not hear Urban reporting on this.

  • Comment number 11.

    Bin Laden did "personally and directly" claim responsibility for 9/11. How can you get such a basic fact wrong?

  • Comment number 12.

    Just reading the title tells you the truth about the problem with the WEST. "Ahmadinejad's defiance could increase chances of war". As an Arab I read this and I see that just because this man is defiant , you find it a good reason to bomb the whole region to oblivion. All what you need is ducks like Abou Mazen, Karzai, Moubarak or another puppet who you can corropt with few dollars. This would explain why you have problems with NASSER, ASSAD, NASRALLAH, NAJAD.........

    Whatever happen the good will always prevail over evil and impoverishing the world for your own wealth can not go forever. I have eaten enough of your processed food with its raw material imported from my country and we should all open our eyes to what Najad says. Third world countries are not allowed to develop knowledge because how else you can sell me something for 10 dollars after you bought it from me for 1 dollar just because it went through your processing technology. (COFFEE--> NESCAFE, COCONUT--> biscuit, ORANGES-->JAFFA Cakes).

  • Comment number 13.

    Any last cling-on of respectabilty was wiped clean last night, from Newsnight and indeed the bbc.

    I COULD NOT BELIVE WHAT I WAS WATCHING, im glad im not the only one who noticed the bbc's Doggey Dossier/Colin Powel moment.

    We dont need you 成人论坛 and the more you wish to promote unfair war mongering tripe. the less we want to pay for you.

  • Comment number 14.

    Perhaps Urban or his boss would condescend to explain to us why this output is so biased and so lacking in the balance and impartiality that the 成人论坛 is supposed to provide?

  • Comment number 15.

    The entire Urban article is biased, and strived to prove the argument of the neo colonialist. What makes Urban to think that it is only the westeners and their allies who have the right to nuclear power? What makes him to think that it only the west who has the capability and ability to inspect others' nuclear activities? Why doesn't he put forth the same argument against Israel who have refused to allow any form of investigation and inspection of their nuclear program?
    This is just simply proving that the 成人论坛 and other western news outlets are propagandits for their governments. Plain and simple.

  • Comment number 16.

    Once again the bbc has done well in being extremely bias.

    成人论坛 is the mouthpiece for the zionist lobby.

    No country is perfect but there is no way Britain, Europe or the US can lecture Iran about war or human rights.

    Another fail for the bbc.

  • Comment number 17.

    Those speaking in favour of Iran, on this page, clearly have not thought through the consequences of Iran successfully developing nuclear weapons. It will be the cold war all over again and will spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and beyond.

  • Comment number 18.

    Sorry Koppers but I'd rather think about the possibility about Iran developing nulcear technology and the possibility of better life for all like oppressed nations. Just because we are "defiant" you are scared of the consequences but when we are timid and lame we serve better you interests

  • Comment number 19.

    Mr Urban is probably right that Iran is mischief-making in Lebanon and wider Middle-East and is highly likely to be developing Nuclear weapons, but...the "War-Drums" beating gives you a strange Deja vu feeling of "dodgy dossiers" and 20 minute warnings of Iraqi missile attack!
    The last time we heard of whispers from SIS,it lend to the worst Political decision for over 50 years.
    Of course if Israel or the US decide to strike Iran, there's not much that we could to stop them, but at least this time we can decline to "stand shoulder to shoulder" with America.

  • Comment number 20.

    Every week we are treated to pictures of longer and longer range Iranian missiles. Forgive me for being naive- but I was under the impression that electricity generated by nuclear energy is delivered vai the electricity grid. What from will the Iranian nuclear energy be if it has to be delivered by rocket?

  • Comment number 21.

    At 4:38pm on 15 Oct 2010, Zayne wrote:
    Once again the bbc has done well in being extremely bias.

    成人论坛 is the mouthpiece for the zionist lobby.

    No country is perfect but there is no way Britain, Europe or the US can lecture Iran about war or human rights.


    Which of course is why the 成人论坛 cannot have an article on Israel without stating that it considers "settlements" to be illegal and lists the right of return of Palestinian refugees, Jerusalem, water and borders as the obstacles to peace, without any mention of the only real obstacle - the Palestinian refusal to recognize Israel as the national home of the Jewish people just as Palestine is the national home of the Palestinian people - or to accept that 2 states for 2 peoples means 1 each.

    Of course Iran which has not a single same sex couple and where a woman is facing a slow painful torturous death by stoning, where election results are determined by the jackboot of the religious police is a model of human rights.

  • Comment number 22.

    Surely, we all know Ahmadjinejad is a demagogue and an authoritarian (though not an autocrat, as the blogger seems to hint at), but the problem is that such people thrive when two neighbouring countries have been invaded (one of the invasions being based on outright lies) and your own is threatened militarily by the world's hegemonic superpower - or don't you remember the "bomb iran" song from republican candidate to the presidency John Mcain? Besides, Iran doesn't claim the West does not have the right to inspect its nuclear program, for such an entity you have crafted out of the 19th century ("the West" - please tell us what that is!)has certainly no right at all, since it does not exists. What Iran disputes is the extension of the mandate of the IAEA and what exactly are its obligations under the NPT. The Iranian government states that it is complying with its international obligations - this may be accurate or false, that is a juridical discussion, but what is utterly wrong is to assume iranians are irrational and "nosensical" in a biased and irresponsible manner. Every reporter should have to read Said's "Orientalism" before go babling about the Middle East, and, if you have, please read it again, because you understood nothing of it.

  • Comment number 23.

    How is it possible that this blatant anti-Iranian propaganda passes as serious unbiased 成人论坛 journalism?

  • Comment number 24.

    Is Ahmadinejad defiant, or is that the only way that the west can portray him. Iran is signatory to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treay; Iran has allowed and allowed and allowed inspectors to inspect and inspect and inspect.
    BUT THE WEST IN NEVER SATISFIED; there is always something else it wants Iran to do.
    Lebanon:
    The streets were lined with Iranian flags and covered in clusters of green, white and red balloons. Throngs were cheering, waving, and shouting. A grateful nation extended to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, what one Bishop claimed was the greatest outpouring of popular support on the streets ever witnessed.
    An important reason for the massive outpouring of popular support was the quarter century of Iranian assistance to Lebanon for social projects, including the rebuilding of much of Lebanon following the 1993, 1996 and 2006 Israeli aggressions.
    Meanwhile, Palestinian refugees, are tightly clogged into Lebanon鈥檚 squalid UN camps, denied even the most elementary civil rights by an apathetic international community. Refugees, urging the expulsion of occupation forces from their countries & the restoration of their former lives waved and blew kisses.
    Close to 750,000 people (1/4 of the total population of Lebanon appeared at the main road from Beirut鈥檚 airport and at other events during an intense two days of appearances. At Al Raya Athletic field in South Beirut, often used for Hezbollah events, an estimated 150,000 people crowded into the main field boundaries - the largest gathering inside the field ever seen. Thousands of others spilled into the side streets where huge TV screens has been set up.
    Lebanese and Iranian flags were fluttering everywhere but not Hezbollah flags (in keeping with the message that this was an official state visit). President Ahmadinejad was invited by President Michel Suleiman of Lebanon on behalf of every Lebanese including the majority of Lebanese who live in the Diaspora. Deployments of Suleiman鈥檚 Presidential guards were providing security for Iran鈥檚 President with Hezbollah security largely out of site.
    Shortly before the Iranian President鈥檚 35-car convoy arrived at Qana, his fourth largest gathering, an Israeli Air Force MRPV circled lazily yet provocatively above the site of the 1996 Qana massacre. Some in the more than 15,000 person crowd pointed skyward, some kids squealing 鈥淚srael!鈥. This Israeli provocation ended according to a Hezbollah security source when the MRPV鈥檚 controllers realized that a Resistance laser guided missile had locked on to the intruder. The same source divulged that Hezbollah did not intend to shoot it down and would only monitor the threat. This was because the Resistance did not want to mar the Iranian President's tour.
    Lebanon鈥檚 people, army and resistance ignored provocations from this country鈥檚 southern enemy, including assassination threats like the one made by the NAKBA DENYING Knesset Member Aryeh Eldad , more blustering from Shimon Peres, Ehud Barak, and PM Netanyahu, the beefing up of Israeli forces along the blue line, efforts to crack Hezbollah communications and send SMS threats via hacked mobile phones鈥
    Another sign of Israeli taunting during Iran鈥檚 Presidents visit was the launching of hundreds of blue and white balloons to catch the air current north to Bint Jbeil when Ahmadinejad was appearing. Some with insults written on them by children with magic markers and others reportedly smeared with excrement.
    Ahmadinejad鈥檚 visit was far more than symbolic. It bespeaks a new regional reality that encompasses a third way, separate from the US-Israel-Saudi or Syrian path. I think we are witnessing a new era of growing and uncompromising Resistance to Israel鈥檚 brutal occupation and drawn-out ethnic cleansing of Palestine as well as America鈥檚 ccupation and exploitation of Arab natural resources.
    I foresee a six member Axis of Resistance led by Iran and Turkey and including Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and Lebanon that will be a force to be reckoned with. For many Lebanese, from all of 17 non-Shia sects, despite a nearly unprecedented five year US-Israel vilification campaign against his person and his country, Iran鈥檚 President appears to be underestimated in Washington and Tel Aviv.
    He's not defiant. Ahmadinejad simply realizes the west does not want anything to do with Iran, unless it's to topple its government in favour of puppets that can be jerked around by the United States.

  • Comment number 25.

    Iran remains the one major oil producer in the Middle East that broke free from US/British control and still remains defiantly independent of the aggressive policies of the US based 'Military Industrial Complex'. Nuclear armed Israel is now fast becoming the proxy Middle East army of the US and with the US armed and controlled Saudi empire Iran is not only increasingly threatened militarily but by now is virtually surrounded by US bases. Unless Iran and its allies becomes sufficiently militarily powerful, it is probably only a matter of time before the 'hawks' of the US/Israel/British military powerhouse find some excuse to attack the supposed nuclear targets although an invasion is unlikely. In the long term, diplomacy must be considered along with acknowledging the right for Iran to remain an independent and free nation.

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