Irish bailout: "But Dougal, that money was only resting in my account"
Here's a brief backgrounder to the developing Irish debt crisis:
Ireland's banks lent billions in soft loans during the property and credit boom last decade, much of which they will never get back. So they had to be part nationalised and bailed out to the tune of 70bn euros (拢59.6bn) by the Irish government earlier this year.
The Irish government was already facing a budget deficit crisis, because of collapsing growth, deflation, capital flight etc. It had already agreed a 7bn austerity drive over the next four years. But the bad loans it is underwriting total half the size of Ireland's GDP.
Because it bailed out the banks, it will now have to double its austerity programme to 15bn. Even if that is achievable it may tank the Irish economy so badly that they go into a death spiral of deflation, slump and eventually the government defaults on its debts.
But if they do, the eurozone stands behind them in the form of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), a 440bn bailout fund, backed by another 250bn from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and a further 60bn from the 27 member European Union (EU). Greece is already reliant on that fund, and it has enough money to bail out Ireland and Portugal if it has to (but not Spain).
So when the risk of an Irish default rose, there was no panic - as investors assumed the euro bailout funds would be used if necessary. It will probably cost 90bn euros in total to sort Ireland out.
But then, because the whole EFSF bailout fund is highly irregular and the brunt of it borne by Germany and France, last month these two countries signalled the bailout fund would in 2013 be replaced by a different mechanism that would force those who lent Ireland the money to take a "haircut" or discount on their debt - the investors would not get all their money back.
This sent shockwaves through the bond market. Why do you care? Because the bond market is your pension fund and the fund managers are suddenly faced the prospect of having to write to you and tell you they have lost some of your pension money - or quite a lot if it turns out Portugal and Greece go under. Or a massive amount if it spreads to Spain.
In addition, Ireland is being kept afloat by about 130bn of ready cash, short term lending from the European Central Bank (ECB), about 1/3 of all the liquidity provided in the entire continent, and the ECB wants to stop doing this.
The more Ireland's government resisted a bailout, the more investors began to pull money out of the Irish banks themselves, beginning what one city analyst called a wholesale funding run on Thursday last week.
OK, so what's happening today?
Fears that this will end in disorder have driven the cost of borrowing up for Portugal and Greece, despite the implicit backing of the ECB. The rest of Europe is trying to force Ireland to take a bailout, with the resulting loss of economic sovereignty as its budget gets dictated by Brussels and Berlin.
The Irish government is resisting this - while it tries to design an austerity budget to be presented on 7 December, and because it does not need to raise any new money until next year.
It is arguing in the back-channels that it should be allowed to take EFSF money for the banks, since it is the banks that are insolvent not the government.
This is tantamount to asking the ECB to act as the sovereign authority, bypassing the Irish national government and bailing out the banks direct. You would then be in a position where the euro, based on a no-bailout rule, had seen its monetary authority bail out private businesses and keep them afloat with no penalty to the national authorities that had allowed the catastrophe to happen.
As several economists have already commented: it is a giant game of pass the parcel, solving nothing.
Some are now arguing that, for once in this two year farrago of crisis and stop-gap measures, somebody other than taxpayers should feel some real economic pain: possibly savers, certainly bondholders.
The failure to impose losses on bondholders is being seen as yet another example of the problem that has plagued the policy elite: moral hazard. If you can't lose money from lending Ireland money, you will just go and lend it to another semi-busted economy.
Who will feel the pain if bondholders take direct losses? Well Ireland's debt is 29bn: 12bn of it is owned by German banks, 5bn by UK banks and 5bn by the Irish banks themselves, this latter the ultimate financial tautology.
So by bailing out Ireland, or its banks, the German government is effectively, once again, bailing out its own banks. Some may argue at the "price" of imposing economic sovereignty on Dublin from Berlin.
If it were an episode of Father Ted, you could almost hear Ted Crilly saying to Dougal: "but that money was only resting in my account..."
There's more on this from Robert Peston here.
Comment number 1.
At 15th Nov 2010, tawse57 wrote:The blunt reality is that a bankrupt Eire is the result of a massive ponzi property scheme.
None of the properties going for truly ludicrous sums in Eire were ever worth anywhere near the sums that many people paid for them. Even now, with 50 percent falls across Eire, most property in the country is still probably another 50% over-valued in asking price.
Property became a drug or a disease, or a bit of both, and entire countries became addicted to, or infected with, the property madness.
We can tut tut when looking at Eire and, as much as everyone wishes to blame the bankers or everyone and anyone else, the cold, blunt reality is that the UK partook of the property madness just as much as the people of Ireland, Spain and the United States did.
What is happening in Eire now with crashing property prices could just as easily be the UK 6 months from now.
Yes, the banks played their part with the too freely available credit, the so-called liar loans, the CDOs, etc, etc, but anyone who bought a property, be it in Eire or in the UK in the past 7 or 8 years, shares just as much blame - especially if they did so purely for speculation via second homes, buy-to-lets or believing that they were property developers after watching too much property porn TV.
But watching the reports coming out of Ireland you can be forgiven for thinking that fairies came in the night and stole all the money. One minute there were hundreds of billions lent on property and the next minute - puff - it was gone!
It is as if there is a real fear that even daring to mention the ponzi property scheme that Eire became will somehow let the cat out of the bag regarding our own property ponzi scheme.
I think Mrs. Doyle must have left Craggy Island circa 2001 to become the head of an Irish bank. I can just imagine her policy towards property speculation, liar loans and CDOs.
"Aw go on, you'll have some. Go on go on go on go on go on go on go on go on ...".
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Comment number 2.
At 15th Nov 2010, yayavarshahuuuu wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 3.
At 15th Nov 2010, shireblogger wrote:The Bank for International Settlements Quarterly review in June said that banks headquartered in the UK had larger exposure to Ireland ( $230 billions) than did those based in any other country. $128 billions of those exposures were, it said, to the non bank private sector. Where does this leave the Committee on European Banking Supervision stress tests carried out in July.
On the EFSF, what interest rates would be charged to borrowing nations?
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Comment number 4.
At 15th Nov 2010, DebtJuggler wrote:And how a single banker or politician has not gone to prison over this is beyond me.
Maybe now, Iceland is showing the rest of the world the way out of this crisis.
Former Iceland PM faces trial over bank collapse
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Comment number 5.
At 15th Nov 2010, DebtJuggler wrote:Paul's story tonight has implications for the entire UK population.
Yet this story did not even feature in the first 5 top stories on News at 10 tonight...
成人论坛/Gov't spin media manipulation as usual.
The top story was of course totally predictable.
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Comment number 6.
At 15th Nov 2010, watriler wrote:If the Irish are so concerned about retaining economic sovereignty why did they join the Euro or even the EU. It is an inescapable logic that belonging to a uniform currency that crosses national economies will at some point or other demand unwelcome imposition of supra national policies and this is what is about to happen. Reeking another 7bn of cuts on the Irish people and their toy town economy is the worse thing the government could do because it will give another turn or two to the vicious spiral they have already entered. We should be grateful for the Irish in subjecting themselves to an experiment in Micawber moneynomics.
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Comment number 7.
At 15th Nov 2010, DebtJuggler wrote:Some tragicomedy
You must watch this...
(Shamelessly copied from brossen99 over on the NN blog)
'Quantitative Easing': The Hidden Government Subsidy for Banks
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Comment number 8.
At 15th Nov 2010, Carol Wilcox wrote:It should be noted that Ireland abolished the residential property tax - very popular at the time. Whilst not the best form of property tax (taxing the land alone is far more sensible) it did nevertheless help to constrain inflation. Combined with the deregulation of banks this was always a disaster waiting to happen.
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Comment number 9.
At 15th Nov 2010, Jericoa wrote:Thanks for the explanation Paul, the general public seem to have moved on now though, the power brokers are sucessfully keeping this farce under wraps, outside of the perception of the majority and off the front pages, drip feeding the pain through to the population so that at no point do they feel it keenly enough to complain about it and in so doing driving an ever deeper wedge between the ruling elite and the people tghey are supposed to serve.
I am sure they are doing this in the interests of stability and with our best interests at heart...but emerging dictartorships under cover of the illusion of democracy always say that dont they.
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Comment number 10.
At 15th Nov 2010, DebtJuggler wrote:The NN review of ALL of tomorrow's broadsheet newspapers totally backs up my post #5.
Go check out the papers tomorrow morning!
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Comment number 11.
At 15th Nov 2010, jauntycyclist wrote:...The failure to impose losses on bondholders is being seen as yet another example of the problem that has plagued the policy elite: moral hazard. ...
at last. This is the whole problem. The basic flaws in assumptions is that money in the market is 'safe' and without risk. ie a one way bet. Governments have trashed the finances to keep those assumption idols alive.
Most pensions are ponzi schemes and must blow up sooner or later. Even trashing the economy and the finances won't save the pensions. People who think they are going to get those gold plated state pensions are not going to get them. The public finances should not be trashed to keep that illusion alive for a few more months. Its haircut time.
the current model of pensions doesn't work. we need a new model based on reality that we live in a zero sum game not some idealist fantasy.
if you put your money in the market you take on risk for which you can expect reward. make bad choices or even unlucky choices and you will lose your stake. The bond holders fell asleep at the wheel and didn't scrutinise their investments although i remember posting a vid by Tappan of Bondtrac who said they saw the crunch coming 12 months ahead and got out of their positions so some saw it.
vast wealth has vanished. Goldman only got fined 500million for selling those triple A's.
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Comment number 12.
At 16th Nov 2010, DebtJuggler wrote:An amazing programme tonight on 成人论坛2 after NN.
Just when Britain was in dire strait after WWII...who saved the day?
The Secret Life of the National Grid
'New series. Documentary charting the history of Britain's electricity grid, beginning with its construction - from 1920s pylon design to power at the flick of a switch. Author Will Self and urban planner Peter Hall are among the contributors exploring the architectural and engineering achievements that lie behind the infrastructure's creation. Narrated by Philip Glenister. Previously seen on 成人论坛4.'
I normally can't stand Will Self...but good on him for this contribution!
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Comment number 13.
At 16th Nov 2010, DebtJuggler wrote:Oops!....I forgot to add to my previous post, that the programme is full of interviews of some old engineers.....ergo it is very boring. Please ignore my previous post. Just a load of old has-beens (or who never were's) who didn't contribute anything to British society.
Nothing to see here....move along please!
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Comment number 14.
At 16th Nov 2010, DebtJuggler wrote:Breaking News on 成人论坛's website at 00:18 tonight...
Payout for ex-Guantanamo inmates
/news/uk-11762636
'Former detainees held at the Guantanamo Bay prison camp in Cuba are set to be paid millions of pounds in compensation by the government, the 成人论坛 understands.'
The day after Remembrance Sunday!
Says it all really.
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Comment number 15.
At 16th Nov 2010, tawse57 wrote:I think the energy of the bloggers on here would be better served by forming an escape committee, coming up with a cunning plan and starting to dig tunnels Tom, Dick and Harry ready for our escape.
We do appear to have enough Engineers to complete the task.
Paul can be 'Big X', the rest of you can fight for your parts and decide whether you wish to be the Tunnel King, the Scrounger or the Forger. I myself am going to sit here in solitary and count all my gold bars and tins of baked beans whilst awaiting the inevitable economic collapse.
Hong Kong might be a tad far but I am sure we can make Switzerland by the Spring.
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Comment number 16.
At 16th Nov 2010, SeanBroseley wrote:Just to check my understanding on something.
The Irish government can only bail out it's own banks by raising taxes or borrowing because it is in the Euro. Whereas the US and UK (e.g.) could do this by creating electronic balances and so devaluing their currency.
Is that correct?
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Comment number 17.
At 16th Nov 2010, stanilic wrote:Poor old Paddy: gets rid of John Bull for a high price just to let the Germans in.
Where would Roger Casement stand on this?
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Comment number 18.
At 16th Nov 2010, Ben wrote:tawse57. Agreed - it's good to see Paul mention that this will effect all our pensions. i.e. their is an interconnectedness between the property booms, our pensions, disposable income over the last decade and banking.
The last 10 years were in large part bankrolled by all this debt. I love the way people talk as if we can just carry on. The money has already been spent on TVs and holidays. We have no real infrastructure expansion to show for it. It's been lent out, now we (and by we I mean the younger generation!) must pay it back.
I feel people don't understand how much change is coming. Now the PIGS (and the UK) must first scale back spending to sustainable levels after a decade of unsustainable fantasy, then they must put aside more to pay back the debts outstanding from said years. This double-whammy will leave many perplexed as they see the last decade as normal and can't understand why it can't continue.
Finally Ireland has a population of 6.2M and loads of land. How was property ever worth that much! If people thought for themselves they could have said "it's not worth this much money" but instead we all judge it relative to others, eg this rubbish house in a rubbish area is worth 拢1M because someone on the same road sold their rubbish house for 拢900K and I've got a patio. I guess greed is a great incentive to ignore wider realities.
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Comment number 19.
At 16th Nov 2010, cozzy121 wrote:The taxpayers of Europe shouldn't have to bailout my corrupt gombeen nation, whose electorate who鈥檚 choice of leadership material is a man without a tax clearance certificate. (
Who鈥檚 excuse for having large amounts of cash in his constituency office was having 鈥渨on it on the horses鈥. (
Is it any wonder that our country is in a financial mess when we accept such low standards in our leaders? Such a people should not be bailed out. How else will we learn?
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Comment number 20.
At 16th Nov 2010, stanilic wrote:15 tawse57
Are you Donald Plesance, then? Can you see? Can you see?
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Comment number 21.
At 16th Nov 2010, tawse57 wrote:I was kind of leaning to the Steve McQueen part - mainly due to the rather cool t-shirt that he wears throughout 'The Great Escape'.
Thinking about it the current situation is more akin to 'The Magnificent Seven' - a bunch of wasters who don't work and who don't create anything ride into the village and begin to fleece all the poor, working people of everything they have. Once they have taken everything they then come back and do it again... and again... and again.
How can we get rid of them?
Maybe we need to put all our gold coins and tins of baked beans into a kitty and head to a small town just north of the border in search of a bald man dressed in man.
Seems the fate of the World now depends on Patrick Stewart or Harry Hill!
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Comment number 22.
At 16th Nov 2010, stanilic wrote:Talk about life imitating art.
I think it will be Harry Hill as the whole business verges on the ludicrous.
I must confess to be a citizens' militia man myself. Tom Wintringham had some very good ideas.
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Comment number 23.
At 16th Nov 2010, tawse57 wrote:I always get militias mixed up with twirling bands - the latter scaring the bejesus out of me personally.
Until you have had 30 women in close formation marching towards you twirling batons you have not faced fear.
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Comment number 24.
At 16th Nov 2010, Ben wrote:"UK inflation rate in surprise October increase"
/news/business-11764588
Surprise? If you have the memory of a goldfish, yes...
"The available evidence still supports the Bank's assessment that after a temporary increase, inflation will come down significantly over the next 12-18 months," said David Kern, BCC chief economist.
You are doing a great job David. Keep towing the line.
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Comment number 25.
At 16th Nov 2010, stanilic wrote:23 tawse57
Faced with 30 baton twirling women marching in close formation there is only one thing a red-blooded male need do and that is to inhale deeply. Delicious.
Watching the film of those North Korean girls goosestepping in their boots the other week got me quite excited. They may have frightened the horses but they made this old man very happy.
It is probably why I like Irish dancing.
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Comment number 26.
At 16th Nov 2010, jauntycyclist wrote:16
yes basically. although the ECB are inventing money too to 'lend' to such countries.
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Comment number 27.
At 16th Nov 2010, stevie wrote:so how much a pint of Guiness after this little lot?
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Comment number 28.
At 16th Nov 2010, Ben wrote:stevie - try Fuller's London Porter. Brewed in your own currency, and much more tasty.
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Comment number 29.
At 17th Nov 2010, stevie wrote:tried it....very nice but a Guiness on O'Connel street tastes so beautiful...it's the Liffy y'know, the Liffy...
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Comment number 30.
At 17th Nov 2010, Breaking news wrote:QUOTE: "Paul's story tonight has implications for the entire UK population. Yet this story did not even feature in the first 5 top stories on News at 10 tonight..." UNQUOTE
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Anyone relying on 'News at 10' to keep informed is in BIG trouble.
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