Microsoft vs Yahoo - post-match analysis
- 4 May 08, 08:58 GMT
A few hours ago the , not with a bang but a whimper. So with the game over, let's assess the winners and losers.
Microsoft
On the face of it, Microsoft certainly comes out of this pretty badly. It has huffed, and it has puffed, but instead of blowing Yahoo's house down, it has walked away meekly into the night, .
Did it realise, during the three months from bid to retreat, that Yahoo was not such a prize after all? In his letter to Jerry Yang, Steve Ballmer explains why he decided not to go hostile: "Our discussions with you have led us to conclude that, in the interim, you would take steps that would make Yahoo! undesirable as an acquisition for Microsoft."
He goes on to say that it is the threat of Yahoo outsourcing a key part of its business to Google - the tactic adopted by Jerry Yang a couple of weeks ago - which has really been the killer blow.
We've been outmanoeuvred, appears to be the message from Microsoft. A Machiavellian interpretation of the retreat is that Microsoft will sit and watch Yahoo's share-price plummet - and return with a lower offer at the end of the year.
But this episode hasn't been the finest hour for a company which prides itself on its strategic nous and clear communication.
Yahoo
No wonder Yahoo sounds jubilant. Here's Jerry Yang: "I am incredibly proud of the way our team has come together over the last three months."
Proud, too, no doubt that the tactics which have been derided by many have paid off in the short-term, preserving an independence that just about everyone thought was doomed.
All Mr Yang has to do now is convince his shareholders that it's worth enduring some short-term pain, in the form of a plunging share price, in return for the long-term gain of a resurgent Yahoo.
Oh, and having tacitly admitted that Google's technology is so superior to his own that he's handed over a key part of his business to their care, he needs to explain what Yahoo is all about - to his staff, customers and investors.
What a bright and sunny Sunday for those clever chaps at Google. Without spending a cent, they have stuck a spoke in the wheel of the Microsoft machine, and brought its efforts to mount a serious challenge in online advertising to a halt.
The only cloud in the sky is that the world has now woken up to the fact that Google is almost as dominant a player in web advertising as Microsoft is on the desktop - and that could mean a few knocks on the door from the regulators in the coming months.
So Google played a blinder, Yahoo was more adept in defence than in previous games, and Microsoft bottled it in front of goal. But I've a sneaking suspicion that we may get a rematch before the year is out.
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Comment number 1.
At 4th May 2008, super_tux wrote:I think it is a shame but for a rather perverse reason! The idea of Microsoft effectively throwing away tens of billions of dollars comforted me as it could only expedite their eventual demise. I live, work and breath IT and it is becoming crystal clear the future is based on the Google model not the Microsoft one. When I look at my all my gadgets and gizmo's I see the common link being the internet not the PC. Microsoft have never done the internet well, they don't understand the idea of providing the commodity for free and making the money on the service. If they had purchased Yahoo, they would have tried to tie people in to their software and their protocols making the whole thing very inflexible, just look at MSN, Media Player, Office... – That is the Microsoft way and it seems a very outdated way of doing business. My Asus eee does not run Windows, nor does my phone or my media centre or my games console. In fact everything I now use to connect the the internet on a regular basis would not benefit at all from Microsoft software in any way, shape or form – My PC runs Kubuntu, as does my wife's, my son's and even my ten year old daughter'a! And like everyone else I know, our home pages are all set to www.google.co.uk!
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Comment number 2.
At 4th May 2008, JimConnolly wrote:I think this needs to be looked at for what it is; a stage in the negotiating process. This is not over yet.
I still expect to see Microsoft buy Yahoo, perhaps after the stock value has dropped, which its likely to do now Microsoft have pulled out.
Surely 'something' needs to be done to stop Google developing an advertising monopoly?
Look at what par-per-click now costs compared to a few years ago? I have clients that have had to tripple what they spend on advertising with Google, just to get the same number of results.
That's what happens when someone become all-powerful - THEY set the costs. Just like, ironically, Microsoft have done for years.
Jim Connolly
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Comment number 3.
At 4th May 2008, desmondhaynes wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 4.
At 4th May 2008, simonbirtwistle wrote:I couldn't agree more with comment #1, except in one regard, which I'll come to later.
Firstly, yes, Microsoft have never done the web well. I am a young person, yet I find almost all of Microsoft's websites confusing, lacking in the information I need and offering me very little. Instead, I've always gone elsewhere, ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ for news, Google for search (MSN search is terrible). And, yes, Microsoft are far too concerned with using their power in the software market to push their web offerings. Their web offerings need to stand on their own, because things are going the way of the web, and portable devices rather than the big box stuck on your desk.
What worries me though, is that while I can see the Microsoft monopoly beginning to decline, which is no bad thing, I can see the Google monopoly beginning to rise. Each new offering from Google brings them more traffic, and more personal information on everyone who uses their services. The power of Google is worrying and is going the way of being a worthy successor to Microsoft (though in general Google is a much 'nicer' company in the way they do business, it doesn't stop them being dangerous).
The only saving grace in this situation, rather than the Microsoft one is that it's easier to make a website that's a hit in a few years (look at Facebook), than it is to design a rival operating system or office suite. It should be easier to compete with Google in the web world (taking each product in isolation that is). The killer for Google is the integration, people love being able to use Google so easily. That's also the danger.
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Comment number 5.
At 4th May 2008, JimConnolly wrote:...and yes, Microsoft seriously 'don't get' the Internet.
According to John C Dvorak, in Bill Gates' book; "The way ahead" he never mentioned the Internet as part of the future of IT!
I know it was published in 1995 - but come on!
Jim Connolly
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Comment number 6.
At 4th May 2008, JimConnolly wrote:This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.
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Comment number 7.
At 4th May 2008, mark neilsonâ„¢ wrote:The reason that Microsoft is in decline compared to Google is because they have lost touch with what customers want.
I received a recent communication from MSN telling me that my hotmail account would no longer work with Outlook Express after 30th June. I was advised to download Live Mail which I do not need. I therefore closed my account.
They also made windows XP so well that not many are prepared to be forced to buy windows Vista, thus making their favourite software incompatible.
I understand that MSN intend to stop support for XP in 2011. I predict a boost for Apple by then.
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Comment number 8.
At 4th May 2008, JimConnolly wrote:Dear Moderators,
Comment number (6) was posted to Darren Waters Blog - No idea why it turned up here?
Jim Connolly
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Comment number 9.
At 5th May 2008, CaptainKernel wrote:I disagree with your analysis. Microsoft have succesfully forced the share price of Yahoo down, and it will stay down or possibly decline further.
This was predictable in my opinion and may allow them to launch a hostile bid in the future but at a lower price than was being offered.
Yang should have considered this outcome, he apparently has not and is now presiding over a firm whose value has dropped by at least 17% based on latest reports.
Microsoft also probably knew from the ouset that Yahoo would resist, it cannot have been a surprise to them, so I think all of this has been a chess game and now Microsoft have in effect cornered Yahoo.
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