What would make you start up a business?
Either Dundee points the way to Britain's economic recovery, Scots are going to struggle more than others to get out of recovery, or Scots'
lack of business zeal points the way to economic decline.
Those are three takes on the state of the economy published yesterday and today, and all of them could be right.
The National Endowment for Science, Technology and the Arts has set out scenarios for the future of the UK economy and what they would mean for growth.
The status quo is quickly dismissed, depending on the financial sector to drive growth. Even closing part of the manufacturing gap with European neighbours is seen as ensuring the best outcome in growth and employment, but impossibly ambitious in what it would require.
So are seen as the keys. And what Dundee's life scientists are doing to rejuvenate a city that had lost its main industries and much of its purpose is held up as a model to the rest of Britain.
Over the recession horizon
But however much clever science Scotland does, it's not going to pay the mortgage and fuel bills if it isn't translated into business start-ups and business growth.
And that's where the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor comes in, with a particularly worrying message. It looks beyond the ITEM Club's warnings () about slow Scottish growth out of recovery, partly due to its dependence on public sector jobs. No great surprise there. The GEM survey has bigger implications beyond the recovery horizon.
It measures , and across 20 similar economies, to feed into an index. Through Strathclyde University's Hunter Centre for Entrepreneurship, Scotland first joined the research project 10 years ago. And it's shown Scotland's relative position declining.
Faced with recession and retrenchment in the public sector, that gap becomes all the more significant, because it's business start-ups and growth that will have to fill the gaps.
So how do Scots see opportunities for new business? Pessimistically.
Of those who are not active in entrepreneurial activity, only 20% see good opportunities, down from 33% in 2008. That much is in line with the UK.
But look at comparable Scandinavian countries (known, for research purposes, as the Arc of Prosperity - a term that has fallen out of favour elsewhere). Some 40% of people there see good business opportunities, even after the recessionary experience last year.
One explanation may be that last year's results suggest comparable countries were quicker to sense the impact of recession on business opportunity, and that Scots have now caught up.
Scotswomen lag
There's a similar gap in the proportion of Scots and others who know someone who's been setting up a business in the past two years.
Scots are far less likely to chip in investment funding for a friend or family member. The survey shows only 4 in 1,000 of us do so, while in England, it's 12 per thousand, and in Scandinavia, it's 40.
And what about those actually doing the start-ups? The proportions are so small that you have to wonder at the accuracy of the data, but the GEM survey does trawl very large numbers of people.
The index in Scotland has fallen by 18% between 2008 and 2009. The new figure is 3.6%, while in the UK, it's 5.6%. Out of 20 comparable countries, only Belgium and Japan do worse.
This is the lowest index rating since the survey began in 2000. That goes for both men and women, while there's another big gap between the genders. The entrepreneur activity rate for Scotsmen is at 4.8% and for Scotswomen it's at 2.5%.
A much bigger gap exists in Yorkshire and Humberside, where men are the most entrepreneurial in Britain, but the women among the least.
I'm not going to pretend I can explain that one.
Wage culture
The obvious first question for Scotland is why this problem persists, decades after it was identified and became a priority for government and its economic development agencies.
(Incidentally, the Strathclyde report says the Scottish government's counter-recession strategy "overshadowed" this previous priority, giving precedence to replacing private sector activity with public
sector.)
So could there be a particularly Scottish aversion to financial risk?
Or that our recent economic past has featured big industries with wages, and that's the way we'd prefer things to stay?
Is there a cultural mistrust of the entrepreneur, or of those who want to get rich? (This survey found Scots setting up a business are much less likely to be motivated by raising their income than those from Scandinavia - more common among Scots is a combination of necessity and opportunity.)
National mindset
Perhaps you have better explanations for why this is. Some, for instance, are convinced the business mindset stems from the national one, as a small part of a big country.
A group of prominent business leaders last week launched their campaign for more tax powers in the Scottish Parliament, convinced that could set the necessary incentives for business to locate and grow in Scotland.
But would it spark a different attitude to start-ups? Are there thousands of Scots who would set up in business, but only if Scotland were independent? Discuss.
Short of a constitutional solution, what can be done to change perceptions of business start-ups, and to get more of them on the road?
One of the answers may lie in one part of this GEM report that focuses on those with business experience from watching their parents. Better still from those who worked for their parents' companies.
They are two-and-a-half times more likely to set up in business than the Scottish average. This is a particularly important opportunity for women generally and for men with low qualification levels.
Immigrant role models
The explanations are perhaps obvious: start-ups and fear of failure are less daunting among those who have seen it done close up, there are role models and advice handy, and often family finance too.
And which group is most likely to have worked in their parents'
businesses? Immigrants, or at least, those defined as "not born in Scotland". They are more than three-times as likely as someone born in Scotland to have worked for their parents' firm.
So perhaps one solution to Scotland's low business start-up rate is a controversial one - more immigration.
If this matters - and there really isn't much doubt that it does - then the failure to figure out what's going wrong and how to fix it now needs more radical solutions.
Education, taxation, independence, immigration, risk-taking, mindset?
Perhaps you have better ideas...
Comment number 1.
At 7th Jun 2010, handclapping wrote:Douglas
You definitly can't leave out the independence question, both at personal and polity levels. I am struck by the contrast between the freedom which the "Non-Scots" entrepreneurs enjoyed in the more open and egalitarian Scottish society of the turn of the 1700s compared to the closed and heirachical "society" in England at the time. The position of the Quakers then and their response in the founding of businesses such as Fry's and Cadbury's is also germain. As also is the contrast between the hermetically closed fiefdoms of the Labour West with the present "openness" of society in England, which is almost at a "greed is good" level. If an entrepreneur cannot get social recognition from her efforts, she won't try. She will look at how Soutar and Wood are treated by the MSM and not bother.
At the macro, political level, it is pretty obvious that as a British government has been pushing British solutions to this problem on us for decades, as you so rightly point out, then the British "solution" is wrong. What may suit London and the South East, such as extensive immigration, does not suit us all and we should find a solution of our own for our own Scottish society. Calman was wrong to have ignored the impact of the British social system on the Scottish body politic but was at least stating a truth when it averred that it was a key component of the (mythical?) British society. "Full fiscal autonomy" without the ability to alter the social structure that "devo max" would bring is destined to be yet another sticking plaster on the running sore that is Scotlands present state after 300 years in this unequal Union.
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Comment number 2.
At 7th Jun 2010, handclapping wrote:And should you wish to ignore my analysis above, consider the political problems of the Belgians and the social rigidity of Japan. Curious that they should be the two "independent nations" with a worse problem than the British region known as Scotland.
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Comment number 3.
At 7th Jun 2010, jolomo wrote:The big problem in Scotland for budding entrepeneurs, heck even businessmen who dare put their head above the parapet is that the locals love to see them fail..... "Knew it wouldn't last", "serve's him right, gettin above himself" & so on & so forth.
Deep down & sometimes not so deep there is a resentment towards people who strive to get above & beyond themselves. Whilst in other countries these personal goals would be seen as a good thing in Scotland especially in the smaller towns people are desparate for everyone to fail.
As for Government aid - that is only there to help out Overseas companies!!! A small business looking to expand - You might as well try & get a straight answer from a local council official....
It is not about independance or lack of it. It is about a lack of support within the community - The NATS have to stop blaming any and all personal, social & business shortcomings on the Tories, the UK, London & everyone else. Sometimes it is just Scotlands fault - as a Nation there is quite often a bitterness towards anyone willing to better themselves.
The reason we are rubbish at football is not David Camerons fault - we lack about 8 decent players, the reason you got dumped on Saturday night is not Londons fault - your girlfriend knows about you trying it on with her mate, the reason you got sacked on Friday is not because we are part of the UK its because you have been sneaking off to play golf & claiming you are ill....
Anyway Monday morning rant aside from your blog sounds like the smart thing to do is head to Sweden!!!!
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Comment number 4.
At 7th Jun 2010, GavinA wrote:"So perhaps one solution to Scotland's low business start-up rate is a controversial one - more immigration." - Douglas
I think that using immigration is the wrong way to solve our problem, at least on any significant scale. This would amount to an extension of our often throwaway society from packaging, electrical goods and cars, to ourselves: in other words, if people can't do something, replace them with someone else.
This is wrong.
When we, as a country (Scotland) need to develop skills, we should make an honest effort to encourage, educate and train our own people first, before dumping them and bringing in others. The former strategy will help to maintain our sense of community and generate the best type of loyalty from the people who already live here. (Even if they need to be pushed/encouraged a lot, this is often how parents get their children to learn skills which they greatly appreciate later in life).
Dump people for others and they will still be here, but with fewer skills to contribute to our country. They will also be more dependent on the state for work or benefits, less happy, less valued, more likely to live poorly, and less healthy. (This is all around us).
Training in business and entrepreneurial skills should be encouraged from early school days.
Education, education, education!
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Comment number 5.
At 7th Jun 2010, Prospero wrote:I am perplexed by handclapping's analysis. First, the 1707 Act of Union was pushed in Scotland in no small measure by the entrepreneurial class, who were keen to see Scotland's finance recover from the failure of the Darien scheme through improved access to English and and English colonial markets. Although, as Dafoe noted, the immediate returns fell short of expectations, within 50 years the Scottish economy was benefitting significantly from the Union.
Secondly, handclapping is wrong in her analysis of what she terms the British "solution" to the problems of Scotland's economy. London and the south east thrive compared to the rest of the United Kingdom because Government involvement in the economy is considerably less than elsewhere. The Barnet formula, agreed for political reasons by the Callaghan Government as a sop to the Scottish nationalists, has provided a high degree of subsidy to the Scottish economy which has had the unwelcome side effect of creating a significant obstacle to entrepreneurship.
Thirdly, given that the current leader of the Scottish Executive has called for increased immigration to Scotland (a line not pushed by the Government in Westminster, and presumably prompted by a desire to balance the flow of Scots heading elsewhere in search of economic opportunities), it is clear that SNP at least believes that this is a solution to Scotland's ills.
Far more productive would be for Scotland to copy the example of London and the South East by creating a low tax low regulation economy in which entrepreneurs can thrive. How this can be dcne while its politics is dominated by socialist leaning parties more interested in peddling anti-Union messages than analysing problems largely of their own making remains to be seen.
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Comment number 6.
At 7th Jun 2010, Wee-Scamp wrote:NESTA is talking through its rear end again. Firstly, Aberdeen is a far more successful economy than Dundee because of the investment in the energy sector. However, most of that investment came in from overseas and especially Norway and the USA. UK investment in the energy sector supply side has been pathetically small and this resulted in most of the strategically critical, high tech and high value adding stuff being produced by overseas companies.
This tells us - as it has for decades - that actually the low company birth rate has little to do with a lack of entrepreneurs but the lack of availability of risk equity capital which is a consequence of the huge disconnect between the financial services sector and the rest of the real economy.
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Comment number 7.
At 7th Jun 2010, awa_wi_ye wrote:Hi Douglas
As someone who has recently started up a tourism related business I'd say there were a number of things that put people off
- the lack of help from government agencies - I tried speaking to a number of them for advice about a number of technical issues which they were unable to help with.
- the huge amount of red tape involved (bank accounts, setting up limited companies, taxation, VAT registration)
- the costs involved in setting up the business and the difficulty in accessing funding to support startups. It is difficult to know whether you approach Business Gateway, Scottish Enterprise or an industry specific body like Visitscotland
- the worry about whether you will make in any money after starting up your business - as well as the costs you don't make a huge amount of money for a while until the business has been trading for a while (I couldn't have done it without my wife working to support us)Going from a steady salary to an uncertain income is a big step.
- the attitude of suppliers to start ups (they view them with deep suspicion and adopt a cash on delivery mentality when dealing with them) which puts a lot of start ups out of business very quickly
- the lack of a mentoring scheme which you can turn to for advice. I had to find individuals by networking who knew about the type of business I was about to set up and put questions to them - it was those people rather than any government agencies who helped most in answering the practical questions I had about getting the business up and running
The government and others do moan about people not getting out there and starting up their own business, however, it is not an easy option and especially in times of recession a support network would be a great help to try and get businesses off the ground.
If Scotland were ever to look to become independent it would have to encourage more private enterprise to plug the gap in the economy left by the collapse in large scale manufacturing industry and a scaled down public sector. The problem is at the moment those in power don't seem to have the means or know how to do this and it really is up to individuals on their own to sort it out.
As you say it is a complex area but until Scotland as a whole starts to show a "can do" attitude when it comes to starting out in business we won't be the success we should be - and I'm an optimist there because I believe Scotland can be successful here.
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Comment number 8.
At 7th Jun 2010, handclapping wrote:Douglas
Please do not be misled by your commntator #5 Prospero. They are wrong on most counts.
1 The merchant classes mostly avoided the Darien scheme. It was the bunnet lairds that invested and stood to be wiped out and loose their status and so were desperate for any saviour. Do you think any self respecting merchant would have equipped their venture with the unsuitable goods that the Dariem scheme carried?
2 London and the South-East thrive from such Government non-involvement as the M25, Thameslink, the Dome, High Speed One, Crossrail, the Olympics.
3 I am not sure whether Prospero agrees with imigration as an answer; it does not appear in his/her analysis of the relative prosperity of London and the South East, but does seem to be assumed to be part of the Scottish problem in its counterpart, emigration.
4 I worry about the attention span of your correspondent in the assertion that 50 years of deficiency is the result of the last 3 years in which we have had a SNP minority government or even that of the last 11 years in which we have had a Scottish Parliament without the powers to take the action he/she recommends.
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Comment number 9.
At 7th Jun 2010, Flora d Lithe wrote:NESTA - 'National' but pronounces upon the UK, three (or, arguably, four) nations!
And as for Scots failing to chip in to help family and friends start up an enterprise, I refer readers to the truism that "a fool and his money are soon parted."
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Comment number 10.
At 7th Jun 2010, pauline2007 wrote:Since coming to power the Scottish Government have ensured Dundee has benefited from some financial support for both public and private sector.
In the past it was all about labour held strongholds that received jobs and money in a huge and undeniable bribing exercise.
I am never astonished but often dismayed at how overt the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ commentators are pro-unionist.
We are supposed to live in a democracy and despite paying our licence fee and voting for an SNP government we ree still fed unionist slants on almost eery story published on the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳.
I have never really forgiven nor trusted the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ since pulling the plug on a true and representative talking point (Talk Scotland Forum) some years ago.
It happened to have a large number of people who supported independence and the ³ÉÈËÂÛ̳ could not stomach such talk on its pages.
Democracy Live? - I don't think so.
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Comment number 11.
At 7th Jun 2010, ichabod wrote:Comment no 7 says
"As someone who has recently started up a tourism related business I'd say there were a number of things that put people off
- the lack of help from government agencies - I tried speaking to a number of them for advice about a number of technical issues which they were unable to help with.
- the huge amount of red tape involved (bank accounts, setting up limited companies, taxation, VAT registration)
- the costs involved in setting up the business and the difficulty in accessing funding to support startups. It is difficult to know whether you approach Business Gateway, Scottish Enterprise or an industry specific body like Visitscotland"
Just look at all the cosy public sector jobs that the correspondent is paying for through his taxes and how useless they are at helping him!! And there is the problem. Why take any risks if there are lots of low risk, cosy public sector jobs available? Added to which there does seem to be a Scottish aversion to the private sector and success and profits (see comment 3) - Alex Salmond only ever talks about the private sector with disdain, as some sort of immoral money grabbing entity. And if all else fails then the English can be blamed. I suppose you could always nationalise and control everything, and eliminate the hated private sector and then you would have an economy like .......North Korea!!! Form a queue for the bread and milk....
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Comment number 12.
At 7th Jun 2010, Peter wrote:Is it any wonder the entrepneour is discouraged, last October we applied for planning permission to site a snack bar trailer as an accompniment to our small passenger vessel operating at the Ardelve slip "Eilean Donan Castle" Highlands. We have now just recieved a verbal refusal nothing in writing as of yet, not even after 7 months. How useless the local goverment departments are, they have no interest in helping any start up buissiness. They are happy to take the fees, so as a conciquence certain parties are now left with no choice but to apply for pension credit instead of being able to earn there own living. What a Joke this country is.
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Comment number 13.
At 7th Jun 2010, Blogiston wrote:[A good article - and a couple of good responses too. One about the cultural issues facing an entrepreneur, from jolomo, and a very good first hand account of practical issues of starting a business from awa_wi_ye (is that the name of your tourism business?)]
However, Douglas. Have you ever thought of going into business yourself? Mmm..not seriously? Well, your reasons probably answer your discussion question and are probably the same as most peoples; Scotland is a very conservative nation. Risk averse for years before that phrase was invented - the accumulation of wealth and property and stature is on a ratchet system here, for reasons which I cannot explain. Risking all (or a great deal) in a business venture is seen as foolhardy and certainly not commendable - and the corollary of that is the concept of schadenfreude. I worked in Silicon Valley - failure over there is not failure as we know it. And schadenfreude is not in their vocabularly - as irony is not in it either. It is also full of Scots in business. (immigrant mentality? - or just that the valueable people leave this country?)
Someone mentioned Soutar (and he is a great example because he made it at home from having Zilch) - I know him and was invited to a BBQ out his back garden; busy cooking away and talking away to young and old alike, he is a very normal guy. I couldn't help but look at him and think, "What makes you different from the average person that enabled you to create something so remarkable?". I have not got the answer, by the way. I'll ask him next time I see him.
Finally, I and a colleague approached our enterprise agency down at Quango Monolith on the Clyde, a couple of years ago with a hi-tech business proposal. OMG!: a series of increasing hurdles were put in place by 'risk averse' grocery clerks doing 'hot desking' and other cool stuff, until we both were spending more time and money (!) on the wrong activities. They didn't seem to care we eventually took an adverse reaction and dropped out...probably updated their glossy PowerPoint metrics though - so not all a waste of time. My sanguine takeaway at that time was it would be more efficient for the goverment to put its capital investment fund for start-ups into the private sector and let them handle the distribution.
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Comment number 14.
At 8th Jun 2010, Norman Evans wrote:The pessimistic article which prompted this discussion focused on the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor as an indicator of the dire future for Scotland. That same monitor has identified new Zealand, my home, as a hotbed of entrepreneurship. Unfortunately, GEM measures all entrepreneurship from high-growth companies with the potential to earn billions of export dollars/euros to mom-and-pop ventures which add little economic value. New Zealand's economy is sadly dominated by the latter. GEM data alone is not enough from which to predict a gloomy future for Scotland... fewer, higher value entrepreneurial ventures may deliver much more value to the economy. Similarly, the comments decrying the lack of government support also miss the point. Measures of the numbers of high-growth companies, and the quantum of government support for high-growth companies, would probably provide a better indicator of the state of innovation in Scotland than does GEM.
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Comment number 15.
At 8th Jun 2010, Ron Morrison wrote:Scotland faces the double problem - too many public sector based jobs and insufficient small business activity & start ups - why not legislate that Councils and similar public bodies must progressively cease directly employing junior management and operatives and place contracts competitively with the private sector? If Councillors ensured the process was open and uncorrupted with brown envelopes we would kill a flock of birds with one stone.
(Incidentally - I'm a retired entrepreneur with many start ups behind me - including tendering and receiving many public sector contracts).
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Comment number 16.
At 10th Jun 2010, highlandtrekkingman wrote:Hi Douglas,
Thanks for your excellent blog challenge.
I believe there is currently a major opportunity to address many of the issues raised in your article and the blog.
Firstly the mood music is strongly in favour of enterprises stepping up to deliver public services.
Secondly there is a need to create more start-ups by new entrepreneurs but who will have no track record and therefore would fail any competitive tender process.
A possible solution would be for existing enterprises/social enterprises/charities to compete for the business but the public sector could give priority to those who will wrap their support around a new entrepreneur and a commitment to an eventual spin-out and therefore a new business.
This would address some important barriers to entry of new entrepreneurs:
1. They are willing but don't have a good idea.
2. They have no business supporters in their existing networks
3. The financial risk is taken by an existing business and is more likely to gain financial support
Cheers, Highlandtrekkingman
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