成人论坛

So is it unfair to say Germany's position is heads I win tails you lose? We like the Euro but we do not want to share the problems of those who use it. Perhaps the next crisis will concentrate the minds those in the Euro Zone which perhaps will lead to a bifurcation of the EU - Euro and non Euro.

I've got it. Germany leaves the euro and joins us in the "Sterling Euro Zone". No need to reinvent the dmark. It leave most of the less productive countries with a more balanced set of economies. Not perfect but better than Germany going it alone. I suspect we would have to pull up our socks a little but that would be no bad thing.

Stephanie,

why were they considering EuroBonds when what they really need is EZBonds, issued by the (EZ)ECB to the markets and the (EZ)ECB should be the only source of funding for governments in the EuroZone, the EZGovernments themselves should withdraw from the bond markets completely.

Nevermind, too late for that now, what a surprise, another (old/new) crisis is coming our way.

You said 'today's "business as usual" message probably came as a relief'

I bet it did, market participants had been afraid that real action might be taken but they needn't have worried, their lackeys were never going to upset the gravy boat. (despite their election time outpourings)

Business as usual it is then,

so will Portugal be bailed out in time for christmas or will they be left to develop a full gamey flavour before receiving the plucking that is coming their way ?

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

Stephanie said:

"Claude Juncker stuck to his view that the bond idea was "intellectually attractive". "

I think Claude Juncker was flirting with Stephanie Flanders. Never use the words intellectual and attractive in the same sentence with a woman. The bond bit was just outrageous.

Thank you for the update Stephanie.
Doesn't it strike you as odd that all of these schemes (in the Machiavellian sense) are being attempted now and not when the ESF was established in a panic?
It seems that everyone knows that there is a problem and wants to come up with their own QE type scheme to roil the market?
Speaking about QE, Stephanie, would you comment on Mr Bernanke's statement "QE doesn't involve printing money"!

#3 BobRocket, am liking your post, made me laugh.

I had my Cantona moment today and the Atm (first one) had no money left and the second took ages to work. It's a good job the bankers told me that the idea would have no effect otherwise I might have thought that they had something to lose (a la Northern Rock panic).
Anyone else back the bank protest today?

As long as the market has a target, they will aim at it. That's what caused the pound to fall out of the ERM. It was not the political fact that it was in the ERM, it was the arithmetical fact that it had to stay in a band. There was a spread to bet on.

The market has trouble aiming at dollars and sterling and other currencies because there is no target. They are potentially bottomless pits because of QE, currency value falling, etc. all of which can go on effectively forever and hurt investors.

The EU has precluded those measures which would make the Euro a similarly bottomless pit. Germany's fear of currency devaluation makes the Eurozone and its financial contents finite, albeit huge.

The Eurozone has left this huge but finite cake in bite-sized pieces which the market can masticate and ultimately digest. This because it ran the currency before it could walk the politics.

That being so - and absent any genuinely innovative thinking among the Eurozone ministers - the only question is whether Italy is bite-sized enough or whether the market will take fright at it.

Given that the market is a little insane...

All of this talk of the two parts of Europe and the pressure to divide Europe is actually very similar to the pressures on post independence America. The Confederacy, urged on by the former power the UK, and the puritan North. Today we have the USoE pressured to divide by the financiers of New York so that they can make a lot of money.

Our reaction in every part of the EU should, must, be to more firmly unite and cling together or else we will all flounder and collapse.

I must say I find it rather safe and secure to know that we have at the centre or Europe Chancellor Merkel a safe, unimaginative and non-creative pair of hands. Dullness is precisely the necessary quality to keep the ship from floundering. We must avoid the ignorant wayward and rather silly children who want to knock down the playhouse (You know whom I mean!) My only slight concern is that the assessment of Chancellor Merkel comes from the Americans! (via Wikileaks).

In the UK we must tackle the private debt mountain and our hugely uncompetitive asset base or we will suffer disproportionately. An effective exchange rate to the Euro today is around 0.60 Euro to the Pound to make us cost competitive and we must fix this problem before we join the Euro. (Which we need to do ASAP.) Our rotten banks are still crippling the Country!

#5. Oblivion wrote:

"Never use the words intellectual and attractive in the same sentence with a woman"

I think your forget that to call an Englishman (or woman!) intellectual is an insult!

Sometimes, it's not the idea itself ('the intellectually attractive bond') that's wrong or even unattractive, but the individuals, who are pushing it.

I don't mean in the 'not invented here' sense, but in the 'would you buy a used car from this man' sense.

#11. WolfiePeters wrote:

"'the intellectually attractive bond'"

You seem to have omitted an 'L' in the last word! But sadly 'thinking man's crumpet' has just been ennobled - but as I recall from my days in Brighton in the 60's she was always a brunette. I do however have considerable faith in Chancellor Merkel, who is blond, to do the sensible thing!

6. At 7:05pm on 07 Dec 2010, splendidhashbrowns wrote:
Anyone else back the bank protest today?

Yes my wife - but that was more business as usual!
You should see how much money she saved us as well........which is nice.

For some reason, I'm reminded of some dialogue from the 1971 Dads Army movie, which illustrates how the determination to keep calm and muddle through, fighting on to the bitter end is laughable, sometimes...

Mainwairing: "They'll never take this island you know Wilson. We'll fight on until we've got one round left, and we'll save that for ourselves. By the way, how many rounds have we got exactly...?"

Wilson: "One round each Sir"

So those trying to keep calm and muddle through for the sake of the Euro project might just as well shoot themselves, as they've not enough ammunition either. The Euro project was doomed to failure from the outset, as it was far too ambitious. Its collapse has only been a matter of time.

So lets revert to the good old fashioned national currencies a.s.a.p and let individual member states have more control over their own economies.

Bring back the Deutchesmark, the Franc, the Peseta, the Lira etc, then if one country's economy/currency fails it won't bring down the whole of Europe....!

Remember the grand scheme was to bail out the banks and everything would be better. First the banks lied. The governments were dishonest about the actual magnitude of the problem. All the solutions have been to protect wealth. There are no solutions being offered that actually provide relief for those who lost personal wealth and retirements in the middle class. This is a continued abuse of power by the bankers and their investors and the glaring weakness, or corruption, of the governments who should be representing the people. It really does not matter what name the currencies have if they are not worth anything or people do not have jobs to receive some currency. It will all have to fall apart before it gets better because greed and political influence are driving the options and not any idea about how to solve the economic problems...the banks have no economic problems, the people do and they have no representatives as their advocates. Change will only come when the people are fed up with being robbed to support the wealthy.

This comment was removed because the moderators found it broke the house rules. Explain.

3. At 6:44pm on 07 Dec 2010, BobRocket wrote:
'EZBonds'

And

'So will Portugal be bailed out in time for christmas or will they be left to develop a full gamey flavour before receiving the plucking that is coming their way?'


A most excellent post Mr Rocket, most excellent indeed.

Olli Rehn seems a hard working type. He honestly admits it was a mistake to omit " liquidity" from the Euro bank stress tests last July. He announces today that there will be new bank stress tests next year dealing with capital and liquidity ( yipee I hear from the City)..the only response he could come up with in answer to questions as to whether EU sovereign nations are illiquid as opposed to insolvent was to point to a hope of economic growth overtaking the problem...I'm not convinced these guys are muddling through anymore - I think they've just reached the limit of what pooled sovereignty means to their political masters, and it aint an unlimited liability transfer pact.

Here's one for you Mr Rocket:

More stress tests for Eu Banks:
EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said the new tests would be "more rigorous and even more comprehensive".

It's getting more farcical by the day, but then I suppose its pantomime season.

8. At 7:14pm on 07 Dec 2010, ai_gin_ray wrote:
From Bad To Worse: The Economy Today, And Tomorrow

Surely this is a typo..

Should it not read from Bad to Wurst.

1) The banks will be broken up
2) The Eurozone will start its own bond market
3) There will be fiscal integration
4) The Euro will get stronger and short-selling will decrease the value of other currencies

2. At 6:39pm on 07 Dec 2010, ObserverinMonmouth wrote:
I've got it. Germany leaves the euro and joins us in the "Sterling Euro Zone". No need to reinvent the dmark. It leave most of the less productive countries with a more balanced set of economies. Not perfect but better than Germany going it alone. I suspect we would have to pull up our socks a little but that would be no bad thing.

Socks. You will need a whole new wardrobe and learn to walk on two feet.

We do we need new ideas when the old ones are working just fine?

A useful insight into the scale of the problem

/news/world-us-canada-11941612

A printing error has forced the US to stockpile $110bn (拢69.78bn) in new $100 notes until officials can sort and destroy the flawed bills.

A snag in the printing process left up to 30% of the notes with a blank patch on the face, US network CNBC reported.

Officials are working to devise a mechanical process to sort the flawed bills. Doing so by hand would take up to 30 years, officials said.

Move along, these are not the clones you are looking for...

Interesting picture - they to be sure are attacking the euro?

#3. At 6:44pm on 07 Dec 2010, BobRocket wrote:
'So will Portugal be bailed out in time for christmas or will they be left to develop a full gamey flavour before receiving the plucking that is coming their way?'

Bob, the 'gamey' flavour doesn't just come from time - it's also caused by stressing the creature before putting it out of it's misery. Hunting with a pack of dog's is said to help the process,

Oh moderator I see my previous post is being 'considered'.


Does this mean that 'scunk' and 'eurocat' and not acceptable nouns in the same post ?

20. Richard Dingle
"Should it not read from Bad to Wurst."

or wursterer

18. At 8:17pm on 07 Dec 2010, shireblogger wrote:
'I think they've just reached the limit of what pooled sovereignty means to their political masters, and it aint an unlimited liability transfer pact'

'it aint an unlimited liability transfer pact'

It's getting better:
Phrase of the week?

#6 splendid,

it was #5 oblivion that tickled me :)

I hedged and withdrew my miserably small amount of hard earned a few days before, I'm not too big to fail so there would be no bailout for me :(


Anyway, business as usual, the faffing about with the Ireland bailout was because the UK wanted to stake a claim to chunks of the banking system that had UK liabilities and the EU and the IMF have carved up the rest. The Irish banking system will now be run for the benefit of the UK the EU and the IMF.

Portugal is a bit different, their banks are fine, they have a very good customer (just the one), the Portugese government. Capturing their banks requires a different strategy.
The banks borrow from the ECB on the basis of their strong lending portfolio ie. sovereign (for now) government. If the government is downgraded then the ECB can recall the loans and the banks will suffer a liquidity crisis, this will force the broke Portugese government to get a bail out to 'save' their banking system, the EU and the IMF will get the Portugese banks as the UK has no interest (despite them being our oldest ally)

14. At 7:42pm on 07 Dec 2010, TGR Worzel wrote:
For some reason, I'm reminded of some dialogue from the 1971 Dads Army movie, which illustrates how the determination to keep calm and muddle through, fighting on to the bitter end is laughable, sometimes...

Mainwairing: "They'll never take this island you know Wilson. We'll fight on until we've got one round left, and we'll save that for ourselves. By the way, how many rounds have we got exactly...?"

Wilson: "One round each Sir"


Parody of the week?

6. At 7:05pm on 07 Dec 2010, splendidhashbrowns wrote:
"Anyone else back the bank protest today?"

I did. I didn't have any problems withdrawing the cash. I'm not entirely sure if it has done any good though.

Maybe the whole 'campaign' made the banks nothing more than a little nervous, not much more than that. Still, has them thinking.

Same time next month? From little acorns...

#18 Shireblogger

You mention that Olli Rehn pointed to the hope that economic growth would overtake the problem. To my eye, Governments the World over - not least in the USA and the UK - are continuing to pile debt on debt in the hope (on the claim) that economic growth will return and enable them to pay it off.

However, no-one actually has anything like a strategy for stimulating the necessary growth. At best, there are wooly references to "research" and "infrastructure" - but since these require Government spending, which means Government borrowing, its not looking good. Capital spending is not going up.

In the absence of growth the only plan, which of course must be unspoken, is to create inflation. But inflation can only result in cash terms (never real terms) growth and only then if wage inflation follows price inflation and we see "cash terms" growth in consumer demand. That's not happening either.

Plan B anyone?

#9 John From Hendon

No John, you are so wrong to pin your faith upon Merkle and Schaeuble. As Helmut Scmidt said they do not have the knoweldge or experience of the waters that they are trying to pilot. For different reasons the US are suffering from reliance upon Gietner and Bernanke and we are suffering from small scale leaders (irrespective of party).

Now I do agree with you that now is the time for all of the EU members to huddle together and hold on tight. It is the only strategy that is left to us. Where we disagree is that I believe that when the wagons are circled it should concentrate upon real economic defence and not merely concentrate upon finance.

Why do you think that there is little debate about the perilous state of the US economy? I don't think that it is being part of some conspiricy theory to suggest that attack is the best from of defence and that is why Wall Street is leading the pressure on both the Euro and the EU.

There is no giant of economic thought presenting a solution, there is no political leader big enough to show the way. Perhaps we will have to wait until things get a lot worse before a true situational leader emerges - but I cannot see it yet.

"Keep calm and muddle on".

Like the 成人论坛 during the Ross and Brand fiasco (among others), then.

33. At 11:27pm on 07 Dec 2010, foredeckdave wrote:
there is no political leader big enough to show the way

You underestimate Merkel.

Cometh the hour cometh the handbag.

The point is it is still too early to say which way things will go.

In the cold light of day EU members, Northern Frugals (NF) and More Relaxed Southerners (MRS) have too much to lose by a Eurozone implosion.

The NF group are slightly more likely to leave than the MRS group who will face a very bleak economic future on their own. Though the NF group enjoy a depreciated Euro (still 1.1860 to the 拢1).

Like a bicycle it will either peddle slowly forward or topple over; no reverse.

"Keep calm and muddle on".

The title might allude to Ms Flanders being out of step on this one.

Perhaps the EU politicians see 'a storm in a teacup'. Look at it in the round, only 10% of EU GDP is under threat here. Harsh on the PIIGS but it will be harsher outside the Euro.

A likely scenario is that a handfull of countries will default on the back of increasing bond yields, and eventually yields across Europe will rise,even German bonds, but there is plenty slack here.

Where's the fire.

33. At 11:27pm on 07 Dec 2010, foredeckdave wrote: & #9 John From Hendon

#33 "There is no giant of economic thought presenting a solution, there is no political leader big enough to show the way. Perhaps we will have to wait until things get a lot worse before a true situational leader emerges - but I cannot see it yet."

FDD and JfH - I had read your posts for a couple of years and despite you seeming to disagree a lot lately I agree with you both.

You both think things have to get worse before they get better. John, of late, is putting his faith in humans (see above).

It was was the great thinkers/leaders (King, Greenspan, Helicopter and Brown) that have led us head strong into this mess.

My thoughts are:

Things do need to get a lot worse before there is the political will to be able to mobilise us, with taxpayers support, out of this. Things do and as a consequence need to get 'a lot' worse.

I side with John on the need for over-priced asset deflation; houses in the UK are way over priced and if we are to compete on an anywhere near level playing field with the emerging economies then they will have to come down inline with competitive pay. This will really hurt!

FDD "Now I do agree with you that now is the time for all of the EU members to huddle together and hold on tight."

What would huddling tight achieve? We would just shiver less as we drown in the icy seas. Capitalism has hit the final iceberg and we are going down.

The 'handmaidens' are clueless, the elected are 'in it for themselves' and the bankers have proven themselves not to be 'He-Men'.

Pain is coming our way... ...how do we do what we can for our, collective, selves. The 'elite' are not what they say they are on the can.

#37 Remantled,

Thanks for your post.

I don't believe that John and I (or is it me?) are too far apart. To my mind we are both pointing in the same direction but putting attention in different places. I think that is a result of the complexity of the situation that we face.

Now, I can only go so far with you regarding Capialism. In its present form with an over-emphasis on finance rather than value then I believe that it is in very serious trouble. However, I do not see a viable alternative on the horizon. Now I can usually be guaranteed to disagree with not_buzz_windrip but on this point I have to agree with him - all of the alternatives have been proven to fail or morph into capitalism (a la China).

As for huddling. I truly believe that Europe (with or without Russia) will ultimately be forced into full blown protectionism. Others will argue fiercely against that but if we do I believe that the competitive dynamic between the nation states will overcome most of the major problems.

#2 >>Germany leaves the euro and joins us in the "Sterling Euro Zone". No need to reinvent the dmark.

If Germany leaves the Euro and joins up with any other countries, it will be with those who can pay their own way without having to keep printing more paper money - e.g. Sweden. The last thing they need is to be lumbered with yet another economy that's up to their eye-balls in debt !!

#33 >>FDD - I don't think that it is being part of some conspiricy theory to suggest that attack is the best from of defence and that is why Wall Street is leading the pressure on both the Euro and the EU.

Actually, I suspect that the sharks are circling the Euro and Eurozone is because the US $ is no longer worth bothering with and the Chinese Yuan is now "impervious" to any such actions ( see /news/business-11907655 ) !! They tend to go for the "weakest" in the market and this happens to be the Euro currently !!

If Eurozone can "repel boarders" (if you'll forgive my mixed metaphors), the sharks will turn to the next weakest but still substantial economy !! And, strange as it may seem, the next on the list is South Korea !!

The day Germany agrees to the idea of an E-Bond is the day after all other countries don't have any need for one.

[[[39. At 03:52am on 08 Dec 2010, ishkandar wrote:]]]

But you ignore the fact that Sterling exists and is still regarded as a reserve currency. Admittedly tried and heavily tested but still traded on a vast scale. I don't mind other product countries also joining so sweden is fine.

Sorry "productive" rather than "product"!

These meetings amongst EU finance ministers remind me of the phrase often used in connection with the global warming farce:
'Nothing to see here - move along..'

42. At 08:05am on 08 Dec 2010, ObserverinMonmouth wrote:
"...Sterling exists and is still regarded as a reserve currency. Admittedly tried and heavily tested but still traded on a vast scale. I don't mind other productive countries also joining so sweden is fine..."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
At last a coherent (though perhaps fanciful) suggestion as to how to get the UK to be part of a common currency.

I would expect once the position had stabilised and economies converged, Germany and Sweden would press for a general union of currencies, and being the bigger Sterling countries the outcome would be in accordance with their wishes. Then again, one by one, other countries such as France might join progressively. This could well happen quite rapidly in such a set-up. Interesting.

45. At 08:39am on 08 Dec 2010, Eddy from Waring wrote:
42. At 08:05am on 08 Dec 2010, ObserverinMonmouth wrote:
"...Sterling exists and is still regarded as a reserve currency. Admittedly tried and heavily tested but still traded on a vast scale. I don't mind other productive countries also joining so sweden is fine..."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
At last a coherent (though perhaps fanciful) suggestion as to how to get the UK to be part of a common currency.

Sounds like the currency equivalent of dumbing down for Germany.

#41 Itinerant-ex-pat

As long as there are 600 trillion dollars worth of derivatives floating around in otc trades, large banks acting as everything from insurance to pension funds, there will be a need to protect states from speculation.

All Germany is saying for now is that the stability fund is sufficient, and that e-bonds will need careful step by step implementation, rather than a botched job that gives free credit to irresponsible governments.

Someone mentioned in an earlier thread: e-Bond funding could be made on the basis of trade imbalances (either way..) , a bit like the Bancor.

Dear Moderator

Would you kindly remove my posting No16 from 8.11pm last night. On reflection I think it better that I keep its viewpoint to myself. Thanks.

31. At 10:38pm on 07 Dec 2010, Remantled wrote:
6. At 7:05pm on 07 Dec 2010, splendidhashbrowns wrote:
"Anyone else back the bank protest today?"
I did. I didn't have any problems withdrawing the cash. I'm not entirely sure if it has done any good though.



Oddly enough the Cantona protest could, if acted on, pose an interesting dilemma for the banking system, although not likely in the way Cantona thinks.

If people turn their 鈥榙emand deposits鈥� into cash, the bank鈥檚 reserves at the central bank will fall, as bank reserves are exchanged for notes and coins.

This will reduce their 鈥榝ractional鈥� reserve and crimp their lending.

#37. Remantled wrote: Re: "#33 foredeckdave, & #9 John From Hendon
and
#38 foredeckdave

Although I can not claim to be exactly in tune and a slavish follower of anything or anybody what I am not is a believer is the 'we must not do anything' school of economics that is espoused by several posters. (I do I think share many of FDD's action imperatives.)

The overriding philosophy that drives my view of economics is that all policy should be directed to providing the conditions that seek to generate the maximum happiness, or if not that, contentment, for the greatest number. To this end it is my belief that we need to engage the greatest number in productive employment/activity. I also believe the studies that show that societies with a smaller gap between rich and poor are both more productive and more harmonious. These precepts may very well be socialist, Marxist or even very English non-conformist religious in historic origin but that does not make then wrong or even out of date. What they do is undoubtedly deprecate the unbridled greed of the last decades - which has brought us to this economic collapse.

Financially we have money - if we like it or not. Money may, or may not, be the root of all evil, but it certainly has the capacity to destroy as much as it does to build. Over a decade ago I started being worried about the overpricing of assets and the lack of understanding by the authorities of the inevitable consequences. I wrote many personal letters to the people in charge of running things and we engaged in correspondence on the matter, but they ultimately ignored me (and the many others).

I see that the need to be competitive is essential for the UK to rebalance its economy. We have to rebalance our economy as banking and financial services is both far too risky and also unable to provide sufficient employment for our people. There are two ways of becoming competitive one is to devalue your currency and the other is to lower your costs. As we are, like it or not, possessed of international banks devaluation is quite difficult. However as our national banks have loans on their books whose security falls woefully short of the book value of the loans (if the sums are done correctly) - we have a problem.

I do not share a willingness to see revolutionary change as a 'solution' and I hope it can be avoided, but I may be proved wrong. What it seems to me is required is to deal with the bank's 'bad' debt, the overpricing of assets (mainly houses) and at the same time rebuild a culture of savings for the present and future generations. This is why interest rates need to rise ASAP. Of course there is a downside that sterling will rise too and defeat the purpose, but if we were to at the same time state our intention of joining the Euro whilst putting up interest rates that may wrong foot the markets and could probably provide us with a relatively benign path towards progress.

One final note on my equality agenda: earlier I outlined the philosophical and scientific basis for a reduction in the difference between rich and poor and the essential nature of working towards this aim, which will represent a dramatic divergence form policy pursued in the last twenty or thirty years. This is why I applauded David Cameron's focus on the maximum multiple of income between rich and poor. (I don't think the man was/is bright enough to understand what he was espousing, but that is beside the point - many a dictator made the trains run of time!) Equality of outcome, or at least lowering the inequality of outcome, is a necessary part of creating the conditions for a wealthier, fairer and happier country.

Final, final note: QE should not go to banks it should be used to build or replace worn out infrastructure for the long term benefit of the country.

12. At 7:36pm on 07 Dec 2010, John_from_Hendon wrote:
#11. WolfiePeters wrote:

"'the intellectually attractive bond'"

You seem to have omitted an 'L' in the last word! But sadly 'thinking man's crumpet' has just been ennobled - but as I recall from my days in Brighton in the 60's she was always a brunette. I do however have considerable faith in Chancellor Merkel, who is blond, to do the sensible thing!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Blonde? Only just. Some would say pale brunette! {Maybe it's a political thing ... uncertain colour ... could be all the rage!}

Not sure now about your eye-sight J-f-H. Maybe that's why your views are often a bit skew-whiffy!

# 15 you have it in one:

"Remember the grand scheme was to bail out the banks and everything would be better. First the banks lied. The governments were dishonest about the actual magnitude of the problem. All the solutions have been to protect wealth. There are no solutions being offered that actually provide relief for those who lost personal wealth and retirements in the middle class. This is a continued abuse of power by the bankers and their investors and the glaring weakness, or corruption, of the governments who should be representing the people. It really does not matter what name the currencies have if they are not worth anything or people do not have jobs to receive some currency. It will all have to fall apart before it gets better because greed and political influence are driving the options and not any idea about how to solve the economic problems...the banks have no economic problems, the people do and they have no representatives as their advocates. Change will only come when the people are fed up with being robbed to support the wealthy"

My business which turns on design & make in a specialised motorsport field has been routinely exporting 80% of its turnover from 2002-2009 with markets in France, Germany, Portugal, Italy, Spain, Blatic States and virtually every country of 'eastern Europe',not to mention Australia, New Zealand, USA, Canada, Columbia, Brazil and many others. All that has stopped. It stopped last year and I cannot see it coming back. Why? Complete collapse of confidence among those who formally boought our predominantly British-made products for their hobby. Does this matter? Not in the grand scheme of things, we ndon't supply essentials - but consider for one the effect on the firms who make things for us - our annual spend is very high and it keeps people in jobs. It sure matters to them. Multiply that by all the other highly specialised SMEs in the UK. I used to believe I was building a future, now I'm fighting for survival - we can't depend on the 'home market', it's been dead for years.

I missed one country off. Ireland. That country was the strongest market in the world until about 6 months ago, for tarmac rally, see unlike most EU countries they still closed the roads for the events. The revenue from alone Ireland could have run this firm on its own and now its ALL gone!

Why should this be? Why does it have to be this way? we didn'tcause it,like we suddenly became incompetent or something. I don't believe for a moment that there aren't countless other owners of specialised companies (and I don't mean High St retail)who aren't experiencing the same living nightmare of 'where is it all going?' or 'when will it end?'

The situation's been brought about entirely by the things you've accurately described, #15. It's an absoute disgrace and a shambles.

I always said Gordon Brown and the policies of people like him in Europe and overseas would take us back to the stone age. My firm is a very accurate barometer of what is really happening in households around the world, we're in the Stone Age now, of that I'm sure. My exp of folk is that they always say., 'oh things will turn out OK'. They don't unless you make it happen but what do you do in a world where nothing sells? Only a political or economic cataclysm is going to change things now. I sure pray for that. I certainly don't pray for a solution from the brigade (top to bottom, politicians, EU ministers, bankers, gamblers) who brought this to pass. Corporals wearing sergeants' stripes, no more, no less. They belong in a toyshop, not at the head of developed nations.


GC

Is the refusal by 成人论坛 correspondents to be clear about the distinctions between "Europe", "EU" and "Euro Group" careless or deliberate?

Since January 2007, the pound has lost 27% against the Euro, not to speak about the 36% it lost against the Swiss Franc and even 20% against the US$.
In other words, to save their 鈥渋ndependence鈥� and finance their Folly of Grandeur, the Brits have stolen those amounts from all those foreign investors who were stupid enough to trust them.
If this is their idea of good housekeeping, then lets be glad the Euro exists - and perhaps you should start to worry about the pound and the future of your own economy.

#50 John from Hendon,

John,

After reading your post, I feel quite jealous! You put together in a few paragraphs the essence of your philosophy far better than I could have done. It confirms my opinion that we share a series of core values. I have labeled mine socialist but what the heck is a label anyway!

All power to your elbow. It's just a pity that some on here appear to consider critical comment as personal opposition.

If you remember back to 2007/8, my biggest fears concerened the growing possibility of either war or social unrest. Both of those possibilities scare me greatly as each in its own way is revolutionary in nature - with consequences that cannot be predicted. In terms of social, political and economic policy I truly believe that we need evolution rather than revolution. In terms of technology I believe that the environment is right for revolution and policy will have to change to meet that.

So thanks for sharing.

If anyone can give me a good 'educated' reason not to support the Zeitgeist movement and a Resource Based Economy.. I would love to hear it.

#51. At 10:12am on 08 Dec 2010, Up2snuff wrote:

#12. John_from_Hendon wrote:
#11. WolfiePeters wrote:

"'the intellectually attractive bond'"
...

Blonde? Only just. Some would say pale brunette! {Maybe it's a political thing ... uncertain colour ... could be all the rage!}

Not sure now about your eye-sight J-f-H. Maybe that's why your views are often a bit skew-whiffy!"

Angela Merkel is definitely more blond than Joan Bakewell ... even today. I do sometime wonder why most men simply allow the white or grey to take over! (except of course notable Italians!)

I think "skew-whiffy" definitely marks you out as a 'reactionary'! Try reading #50 above....

JFH @ 50..

Your views are not really socialist and are definitely not marxist, however socialism needs to be redefined as "policies for social good" and in that sense your beliefs could be considered socialist. There is a more pressing need for a fairer world. It's the best way to avoid world war three.

Stephanie, The title is apt and, indeed, do our politicians muddle on. Those who press the buttons in the markets thrive on this incompetence and we are now realising how vunerable we all are when we are up to our eyes in debt. Whether this is the price of "democracy" where we elect a bunch of power-seeking muddlers who promise one thing and deliver another or our own myopia I'm still not sure. Why we cannot allow the over-zealous banks to fail also beats me. The past bail-outs have somehow been filtered away from the infra-structure and ended up lining the pockets of the "chosen ones". Our tolerance of this is the true contagion.
FDD and JfH et al - thanks for your contributions.

John fron Hendon @50
Compliments on your excellent and thoughtful post. There鈥檚 nothing to add to your philosophy.

Guy Croft @52
People like you are the real heroes of the UK. I am also an engineering 鈥楽ME鈥�, but a consultant and producer of software rather than hardware. I have avoided directly employing people and manufacturing to minimise the problems you have encountered. However, I can well understand your situation. UK governments have consistently failed large and small scale manufacturing with the consequence that the 鈥榳orkshop of the world鈥� has become dependent on banking and finance with all its iniquities.

A point that your history highlights is that the 鈥榠ncrease in competiveness resulting from devaluation of sterling鈥� is just another myth of the political and economic fantasists.

I sometimes say that if, by some accident, I bought a lottery ticket and won the EuroMillions jackpot, my act of charity would be to start some manufacturing activity. The fact is that manufacturing in the UK should qualify as charity work to the nation.

Limping @55
You hold the UK in much too high esteem by associating monetary independence with grandeur: it has far more to do with desperation and a need to survive. The fall in value of Sterling has, so far, saved the UK from the 鈥楩olly of Grandeur鈥� of other importing countries whose governments thought they could survive within the Euro. Moreover, the Brits have not stolen the devaluation from investors as they have not orchestrated the devaluation. Indeed, since investors control the market, presumably they control the relative values of currency. Finally, as an importing country, the UK population has suffered as much as anyone from the decline in value of the pound.

Politicians do whatever politicians do.

The important thing is that the ECB can/will generate a tidal wave of euros to swamp any attacks by market players in the future.

It's hard to bet against a central banker who effectively has limitless funds.

Keep calm and muddle on

Stephanie

I'm sure your father could have made up a song with the same title...;)
(maybe it's the 'mud' bit that reminded me)

Has the Irish economy picked up now? It's been some days now. I assume it must have after the miracle EU bailout.

Problem over!



GC

And now back to reality...



EUR for xmas anyone?

At least one country has some sensible politicians.

65. At 2:15pm on 08 Dec 2010, ai_gin_ray wrote:
Iceland exits recession
At least one country has some sensible politicians.
=========================================================================
How can they declare that they are out of recession when it is only the IMF bailouts that is moving their economy along?

What next are Greece to be declared the new "Hellenic Tiger"!!!!!!!

All this talk about the Euro going under and the EU failing is really nonsense. These are real entities threatened by figments of peoples鈥� imaginations. Not just any people mind you, just people who have accumulated dribs and drabs of other people鈥檚 money through pension and mutual funds and the like. They are predatory like bogey men, feared even though they have no power. And they are getting more money because retail banks can offer no interest. So here you have lots of cash in the hands of a few looking for yield and as good a place to steal it from are the masses of working people in countries like Ireland.
How did this come about? When governments mistakenly blathered on about banks too big to fail. They should have been allowed to fail and take all their fake money with them. Nations could then have reconstituted their fiat systems. I think that there are rumblings of something along these lines starting in Germany, a nation who did have to start from square one after WW 2. Let the bond lenders take haircuts said Merckel. I mean the bond holders are in ridiculously precarious positions for it is their money at risk, and yet they are a cocky bunch who make governments toe the line. If ordinary citizens make it clear to the politicians that a solution must be found that favours them maybe something sensible will be done.

Vote Anonymous at your next general election. Perhaps they could deal with the banksters as well as Mastercard.

I believe the German reluctance to sign up to bailing others out in the EZ medium term is more basic than many are saying, namely Germany has it's own problems of future debt to confront.

Germany is being heralded as a model for all to aspire to by many on this blog. However, I believe they too have problems of their own which they are themselves aware of.

They have a very high cost social model and are not well blessed with a good stock of natural resources. In my view the next decade will see the disposable income of the world falling due to the increasing amount we will have to pay for basic commodities, and as a result the demand for high end German goods will falter.

Their balance of trade will then become negative due to their rising cost of imports and falling exports. They are running a budget deficit now even with a booming balance of trade. When and if this turns down they will be in financial trouble and this is probably why they don't want to sign up to bailing others out when they fear they too will be cash strapped.

They have awful pension commitments even by our standards, and their high cost social model based on the assumption of continuous growth could well be their undoing.

I think any hope that governments will come to the rescue with strategic investment is misguided. I'm slightly tired of hearing what should happen because I know that it won't happen. I think if governments started behaving sensibly then I would start to doubt reality. Therefore it's up to people to collectively find our way out of the recession. To my mind it boils down to one simple question. Is it better to collectively pay off the debts (keeping the system with all its problems) or collectively default on the debts (and hope for a better system in its place)?

In my case I have no debts but I have a similar choice on what to do with my savings.

69. At 5:34pm on 08 Dec 2010, Sage_of_Cromerarrh wrote:

They have awful pension commitments even by our standards, and their high cost social model based on the assumption of continuous growth could well be their undoing.

Forecast or wish ?

' and are not well blessed with a good stock of natural resources@

Never have. Unless you classify that bit between the ears as 'natural resource'.

#70, Hacky The Hufrex wrote:
" I'm slightly tired of hearing what should happen because I know that it won't happen."

You are not alone!

Any one else on the blog think the Euro is a metaphor for Germany.

I reckon the Eurosceptics are gagging for the Euro of the Germany to fail to make up for untold humiliations on the football pitch.

Even FDD is turning into a socialist nationalist (not the other way round).

The ridiculuous notion that the EU should adopt protectionism (though in a previous post he said it already had) is a non starter.

Dempster @ 49 wrote...
Oddly enough the Cantona protest could, if acted on, pose an interesting dilemma for the banking system, although not likely in the way Cantona thinks.

If people turn their 鈥榙emand deposits鈥� into cash, the bank鈥檚 reserves at the central bank will fall, as bank reserves are exchanged for notes and coins.

This will reduce their 鈥榝ractional鈥� reserve and crimp their lending.
-------------------

I thought that was the whole point and it relates to my question above. To my mind individual ethics are the question at hand (I know that sounds like a bad mixed metaphor but it's what I mean to say). Governments and banks have made their plans clear. On an individual level, is it right to push towards another credit crunch in the hope that next time the banks will be to big not to fail? Or should we all be more enterprising and work harder so that more value is created because as money circulates in the economy, value can be used to pay off debts?

53. At 10:52am on 08 Dec 2010, deepdale56 wrote:
"...Is the refusal by 成人论坛 correspondents to be clear about the distinctions between "Europe", "EU" and "Euro Group" careless or deliberate?..."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Yes. I'd say it probably is either careless or deliberate.

#73 Richard Dingle,


"Even FDD is turning into a socialist nationalist (not the other way round)."

I'm not sure that I know what this means?

Should Britain try and mold itself into a clone of Germany? My answer to that is most certainly not. Britain is Britain and Germany is Germany. They have different cultures, languages, history, etc. etc. Can bith counties work even more closely together for the common good? Most certainly. End of story.

73. At 8:34pm on 08 Dec 2010, Richard Dingle wrote:

"...Any one else on the blog think the Euro is a metaphor for Germany?..."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I see what you mean, but I think it's more of an imagined materialisation of French Republicanism to many in the UK. (That's still a Bad Thing to a lot of them, including the 成人论坛 as far as I can see).