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The uprisings that failed

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Robin Lustig | 09:32 UK time, Friday, 16 March 2012

Who remembers Hungary, 1956? Tibet, 1959? Czechoslovakia, 1968?

How about Iraq, 1991? Or Iran, 2009?

I hope the connection is obvious by now: all of them were popular uprisings, and all of them were crushed. In other words, there is no law of nature that says popular protest must always prevail.

Which brings us to Syria. Yesterday marked the first anniversary of the start of the mass protests against President Bashar al-Assad. According to the United Nations, more than 8,000 people have been killed since the protests began.

Over the past three weeks, ever since the anti-Assad rebels staged their "tactical withdrawal" from the Baba Amr district of Homs, the pro-Assad forces have been steadily gaining ground. In both Idlib in the north and Deraa in the south, the two other main centres of anti-Assad revolt, the rebels are under serious pressure.

So am I saying the Syrian uprising is over? No. Am I saying it may well not succeed? Yes. After all, 30 years ago, more than 20,000 people were killed in the Syrian city of Hama, when Bashar al-Assad's father crushed an earlier rebellion by Sunni rebels.

I was in Hama just a few months before the anti-Bashar protests began, and I can tell you there's not much to show for that failed uprising. A beautifully laid-out park marks where the old city centre used to be, before it was flattened, and the ancient "noria" water wheels still creak and turn, as they have done for hundreds of years.

Perhaps we would have felt differently about the Arab spring if it hadn't started in Tunisia and Egypt. It seemed almost easy, didn't it? In Tunisia, the army simply wasn't prepared to fire on its own people; and in Egypt, the generals apparently decided to sacrifice President Hosni Mubarak in order to protect their own position.

For a brief moment, it looked as if Arab autocrats were being swept away like rotting driftwood in a storm. But then came Libya, and Bahrain, and Yemen.

In Libya, NATO stepped in, with UN authorisation, to back the rebels; in Bahrain, the Saudis and their Gulf allies stepped in to back the ruling family. In Yemen, months of painfully protracted negotiations finally engineered the removal of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, although how much of a real change there has been remains to be seen.

So why do some uprisings succeed while others fail? On the evidence of the past year, I'd suggest two crucial elements are in play: the readiness of the old regime to deploy overwhelming military force, up to and including the use of heavy weapons such as tanks and artillery in residential areas; and the involvement of neighbours and regional powers.

In Libya, the old regime was prepared to use overwhelming force, but outside powers (NATO, Qatar) backed the rebels. Result: the rebels won. In Syria, the regime is certainly prepared to use even more overwhelming force, but so far, outside powers (Qatar, Turkey) are providing only limited aid to the rebels. Result: the rebels have not won.

Whether it's Budapest or Prague, Lhasa or Basra, military might wins the day. There have, of course, been many other uprisings which toppled autocratic regimes without a shot being fired. The ripple of European revolutions that marked the end of the Cold War in 1989 showed us what happens when sclerotic regimes rot from within and lose the will to hang on to power.

But that's not what we're seeing in Syria. President Assad's father crushed the revolt in Hama and went on to rule for another 18 years, before dying peacefully in his bed. Bashar's rule is not universally unpopular (there has been relatively little protest in either the capital, Damascus, or in Syria's second city, Aleppo), and there is no evidence to suggest that his regime has lost the will to live.

The word from Washington, London and other Western capitals is that it's only a matter of time before the regime is toppled. Maybe so, but history suggests that's not necessarily the inevitable outcome.

Comments

  • Comment number 1.


    No-one is talking about This could spin out of control very quickly.

    I agree with Robin. Ultimately, the army will decide who is in charge.

  • Comment number 2.

    In Syria, poor Sunnis, a definite minority, have long wanted a better deal. The better off Sunnis have been content with the comparatively secular Alawite government (one can buy alcohol, girls and boys can attend university for almost no cost).

    But, as General Wesley Clark has told us, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Somalia and Sundan are to be toppled according to the Pentagon plan. The Emir of Quatar has a desire for regional leadership and is spending billions to buy it. Quatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all want to topple the Syrian government and replace it with a fundamentalist Sunni one. Israel, of course, would like a weakened Syria, Iran and Hezbollah.

    Thus, potential rebels are inflamed with sectarian rhetoric and given alms and arms. Turkey offers protected staging areas. France uses special forces for training rebels, as, we are told, does the UK.

    Comes now Turkey with the proclaimed intention of taking Syrian land along the border to serve as territory for a rebel army. That would be clear and obvious aggression, unless some paper can be obtained from the UN Security Council (as was done in Libya). Libya also had Benghazi, actual rebel territory. With such, one can say that a "civil war" exists. The legal rules are different and favor foreign aggressors in such cases.

    At least since 2006, the USA has been preparing for this aggression. Millions have been spent trainging and educating Arab bloggers and supporting exile media. They call this "democracy promotion". The 成人论坛 Arabic service got a big extra contribution for such "democracy promotion".

    Understandably, there has been a massive disinformation campaign in Western media. The US Unconventional Warfare manuals have been followed and the public is more or less convinced that the evil enemy is "slaughtering" innocent civilians. Of course, for a year the casualty ratio is about 3 "innocent protestors" to 1 government person.

    The false "humanitarianism" is only a fig-leaf for realpolitik.

  • Comment number 3.

    If the aggressors get some excuse from the Security Council, they will implement their plan of aggression, as they did in Libya.

    The consequences will be even worse, for already the flames of sectarianism are being fanned and Sunni clerics are speaking of eliminating Christians and Alawites.

  • Comment number 4.

    Syria will not fall, if for no other reason that Russia & China are strong enough to provide an offsetting defence to western greed. Western greed is not pretty - forget humanitarianism, and remember that the road to Tehran is through Damascus, which therefore needs a puppet-master vs a democratically-elected leader.
    Is Lybia better off for its revolution?
    Is Egypt better off?
    Most time, I think all of these "colourful" revolutions as evil monstrosities aimed from the west, aimed to topple regimes, aimed to replace regimes with western friendlies.
    Look at Iraq.
    Look at Afghanistan.
    Look at all the pain and suffering and behind each case you will find a motivating factor, namely OIL, but sometimes other things - like clearing the way for the next war.
    The world desperately need an effective United Nations with valid representation on the Security Council. This has been in the works for years, but US has a veto; so countries like Israel can arrest, displace, even butcher Palestinians & ignore any resolution that results.
    Will the UN authorize humanitarian aide to Syria (aka invasion), no fly-zones (aka bomb-strafing with depleted uranium)? Will Assad survive? If so, it will be thanks to Russian sanity & Chinese diplomacy.

  • Comment number 5.

    There is clear evidence uprising to overthrow President Assad of Syria is a violent, power grab led by foreign-supported fighters who have killed & wounded thousands of Syrian soldiers, police & civilians. The outrage expressed by politicians in the West & Gulf State & in the mass media, about the 鈥榢illing of peaceful Syrian citizens protesting injustice鈥 is cynically designed to cover up the documented reports of violent seizure of neighborhoods, villages and towns by armed bands, brandishing machine guns and planting road-side bombs.
    The goal is to impose a puppet regime and strengthen Western imperial control in the Middle East.
    The assault on Syria is backed by foreign funds, arms and training. Due to a lack of domestic support, however, to be successful, direct foreign military intervention will be necessary. For this reason a huge propaganda and diplomatic campaign has been mounted to demonize the legitimate Syrian government. The goal is to impose a puppet regime and strengthen Western imperial control in the Middle East. In the short run, this will further isolate Iran in preparation for a military attack by Israel & US and, in the long run, it eliminates another independent secular regime friendly to China and Russia. In order to mobilize world support behind this Western, Israeli and Gulf State-funded power grab, several propaganda ploys have been used to justify another blatant violation of a country鈥檚 sovereignty after their successful destruction of the secular governments of Iraq and Libya.

  • Comment number 6.

    The current Western campaign against the independent Assad regime in Syria is part of a series of attacks against pro-democracy movements & independent regimes from North Africa to the Persian Gulf. The imperial-militarist response to the Egyptian democracy movement that overthrew the Mubarak dictatorship was to back the military junta鈥檚 seizure of power and murderous campaign to jail, torture and assassinate over 10,000 pro-democracy protesters.
    The imperial policy of ruin and rule in Libya serves as 鈥渢he model鈥 for Syria: Creating the conditions for a mass uprising led by Muslim fundamentalists, funded and trained by Western and Gulf State mercenaries.
    Faced with similar mass democratic movements in the Arab world, the Western-backed Gulf autocratic dictators crushed their respective uprisings in Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia. The assaults extended to the secular government in Libya where NATO powers launched a massive air and sea bombardment in support of armed bands of mercenaries thereby destroying Libya鈥檚 economy and civil society. The unleashing of armed gangster-mercenaries led to the savaging of urban life in Libya and devastation in the countryside. The NATO powers eliminated the secular regime of Colonel Gaddafi and along with having him murdered and mutilated by its mercenaries. NATO oversaw the wounding, imprisonment, torture and elimination of tens of thousands of civilian Gaddafi supporters and government workers. NATO backed the puppet regime as it embarked on a bloody pogrom against Libyan citizens of sub-Saharan African ancestry as well a sub-Sahara African immigrant workers 鈥 groups who had benefited from Gadhafi generous social programs. The imperial policy of ruin and rule in Libya serves as 鈥渢he model鈥 for Syria: Creating the conditions for a mass uprising led by Muslim fundamentalists, funded and trained by Western and Gulf State mercenaries.

  • Comment number 7.

    The Bloody Road From Damascus to Teheran
    According to the State Department 鈥楾he road to Teheran passes through Damascus鈥: The strategic goal of NATO is to destroy Iran鈥檚 principal ally in the Middle East; for the Gulf absolutist monarchies the purpose is to replace a secular republic with a vassal theocratic dictatorship; for the Turkish government the purpose is to foster a regime amenable to the dictates of Ankara鈥檚 version of Islamic capitalism; for Al Qaeda and allied Salafi and Wahabi fundamentalists a theocratic Sunni regime, cleansed of secular Syrians, Alevis and Christians, will serve as a JUMPING POINT for projecting power in the Islamic world; and for Israel a blood-drenched divided Syria will further ensure its regional hegemony.
    It was not without prophetic foresight that the uber-Zionist US Senator Joseph Lieberman demanded days after the 鈥楢l Queda鈥 attack of September 11, 2001:
    鈥淔irst we must go after Iran, Iraq and Syria鈥 before considering the actual authors of the deed.
    The armed anti-Syrian forces reflect a variety of conflicting political perspectives united only by their common hatred of the independent secular, nationalist regime which has governed the complex, multi-ethnic Syrian society for decades. The war against Syria is the principle launching pad for a further resurgence of Western militarism extending from North Africa to the Persian Gulf, buttressed by a systematic propaganda campaign proclaiming NATO鈥檚 democratic, humanitarian and 鈥榗ivilizing鈥 mission on behalf of the Syrian people.

  • Comment number 8.

    The Road to Damascus is Paved with Lies
    An objective analysis of the political and social composition of the principle armed combatants in Syria refutes any claim that the uprising is in pursuit of democracy for the people of that country. Authoritarian fundamentalist fighters form the backbone of the uprising. The Gulf States financing these brutal thugs are themselves absolutist monarchies. The West, after having foisted a brutal gangster regime on the people of Libya, can make no claim of 鈥榟umanitarian intervention鈥.
    The armed groups infiltrate towns and use population centers as shields from which they launch their attacks on government forces. In the process they force thousands of citizens from their homes, stores and offices which they use as military outposts. The destruction of the neighborhood of Baba Amr in Homs is a classic case of armed gangs using civilians as shields and as propaganda fodder in demonizing the government.
    This is no 鈥渃ivil war鈥. This is an international conflict pitting an unholy triple alliance of NATO imperialists, Gulf State despots and Muslim fundamentalists against an independent secular nationalist regime.
    These armed mercenaries have no national credibility with the mass of Syrian people. One of their main propaganda mills is located in the heart of London, the so-called 鈥淪yrian Human Rights Observatory鈥 where it coordinates closely with British intelligence turning out lurid atrocity stories to whip up sentiment in favor of a NATO intervention. The kings and emirs of the Gulf States bankroll these fighters. Turkey provides military bases and controls the cross-border flow of arms and the movement of the leaders of the so-called 鈥淔ree Syrian Army鈥. The US, France and England provide the arms, training and diplomatic cover. Foreign jihadist-fundamentalists, including Al Qaeda fighters from Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, have entered the conflict.
    This is no 鈥渃ivil war鈥. This is an international conflict pitting an unholy triple alliance of NATO imperialists, Gulf State despots and Muslim fundamentalists against an independent secular nationalist regime. The foreign origin of the weapons, propaganda machinery and mercenary fighters reveals the sinister imperial, 鈥榤ulti-national鈥 character of the conflict. Ultimately the violent uprising against the Syrian state represents a systematic imperialist campaign to overthrow an ally of Iran, Russia and China, even at the cost of destroying Syria鈥檚 economy and civil society, fragmenting the country and unleashing enduring sectarian wars of extermination against the Alevi and Christ

  • Comment number 9.

    The Assad regime鈥檚 referendum last month drew millions of Syrian voters in defiance of Western imperialist threats and terrorist calls for a boycott. This clearly indicated that a majority of Syrians prefer a peaceful, negotiated settlement and reject mercenary violence. The Western-backed Syrian National Council and the Turkish and Gulf States-armed 鈥淔ree Syrian Army鈥 flatly rejected Russian and Chinese calls for an open dialogue and negotiations which the Assad regime has accepted. NATO and Gulf State dictatorships are pushing their proxies to pursue violent 鈥渞egime change鈥, a policy which already has caused the death of thousands of Syrians. US and European economic sanctions are designed to wreck the Syrian economy, in the expectation that acute deprivation will drive an impoverished population into the arms of their violent proxies. In a repeat of the Libya scenario, NATO proposes to 鈥渓iberate鈥 the Syrian people by destroying their economy, civil society and secular state.
    A Western military victory in Syria will merely feed the rising frenzy of militarism. It will encourage the West, Riyadh and Israel to provoke a new civil war in Lebanon. After demolishing Syria, the Washington-EU-Riyadh-Tel Aviv axes will move on to a far bloodier confrontation with Iran.
    The horrific destruction of Iraq, followed by Libya鈥檚 post-war collapse provides a terrifying template of what is in store for the people of Syria:
    The same liberals, progressives, socialists and Marxists who are calling on the West to intervene in Syria鈥檚 鈥渉umanitarian crises鈥 from their cafes and offices in Manhattan and Paris, will lose all interest in the bloody orgy of their victorious mercenaries after Damascus, Aleppo and other Syrian cities have been bombed by NATO into submission.
    A precipitous collapse of their living standards, the fragmentation of their country, ethnic cleansing, rule by sectarian and fundamentalist gangs, and total insecurity of life and property. Just as the 鈥渓eft鈥 and 鈥減rogressives鈥 declared the brutal savaging of Libya to be the 鈥渞evolutionary struggle of insurgent democrats鈥 and then walked away, washing their hands of the bloody aftermath of ethnic violence against black Libyans, they repeat the same calls for military intervention against Syria. The same liberals, progressives, socialists and Marxists who are calling on the West to intervene in Syria鈥檚 鈥渉umanitarian crises鈥 from their cafes and offices in Manhattan and Paris, will lose all interest in the bloody orgy of their victorious mercenaries after Dam

  • Comment number 10.

    Who remembers: Magna Carta (1209-1297), The English Civil War (1642鈥1651), The French Revolution (1787-99), The American Revolution (1763-1776) ... were these failures?

    History: a sequence of events some of which are considered irrelevant at the time are of significance later and vice versa. The memorable and significant events are those that advance equality and resist tyranny - at least that is my take on history.

  • Comment number 11.

    Bluesberry writes

    "It was not without prophetic foresight that the uber-Zionist US Senator Joseph Lieberman demanded days after the 鈥楢l Queda鈥 attack of September 11, 2001:
    鈥淔irst we must go after Iran, Iraq and Syria鈥 before considering the actual authors of the deed.

    Perhaps the NeoCons had already sold their seven nation toppling plan to the Pentagon.
    General Wesley Clark's book dates his exposure to the plan within 2001 (see "Winning Modern Wars"). As I recall, the sequence began Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Iran...

  • Comment number 12.

    Have the media got it yet? Carbombs against Air Force security central and Ummaween square where Assad-supporters demonstrated, of course Assad have to deal with the terrorists and armed rebels.

    Does this mean Hillary Clinton will agree for UN to investigate rebel violence too, like Russia and China want? And will Hillary Clinton no longer will stand on TV an call for the Assad-government to go?

    It was a pretty good try, the best propaganda-campaign to overthrow another country's government I have seen. Though they didn't make the deadline of may 7. when Assad is democratically re-elected.

  • Comment number 13.

    Although this uprising will fail, much blood will be unnecessarily spilled, and many journalists contribute to the killing.

    We hear nothing about the false "activists say" reports published by the 成人论坛. There are no retractions or corrections.

    Nor do we hear about the anti-tank weapons and RPGs pouring into Syria along with violent jihadi fundamentalists.

    By promoting the propaganda of Israel and the USA, such journalists are helping to blow innocent people apart on the streets of Syria."

  • Comment number 14.

    Here is something to think about in comparing Libya with Syria. Libyan society (if the reality even permits such an appellation) was under Quaddafi extremely narrowly based. There was no legislature or even a judiciary. Other than the army, there was only a primitive bureaucratic administration. As a result the new social system is facing an extremely difficult task in creating a modern-based government and society. Syria is by contrast not as narrowly based. The Baathist government was organized along socialistic principles and power was shared more widely among ethnic and sectarian groups. Before Hafiz al Assad, Syrians were a badly divided society after the French had abandoned the country without attempting to undo the divisive administrative structure that was used to preserve its colonial dictatorship. Before the Baathist government had a chance to establish a more stable structure of rule, coups were common, practically an annual affair. And despite the influx of a million Iraqi refugees and an earlier refugee deluge from the Palestinian diaspora, Syria has held together under the Baathist rule of the Assads, Bashar Assad and his father Hafiz Assad. More recently despite the challenge of a insurrection with considerable support from outside powers (the unholy alliance of Saudi and other Gulf monarchies plus Western imperialist democracies), the Syrian government has thus far withstood the onslaught rather well. Of course, this will continue but Bashar Assad has not buckeled under the pressure yet.

  • Comment number 15.

    Most failed uprisings you mentioned could have been different if they had received some support from those nations that profess democracy. Governments don't support intervention because they don't want that to happen to themselves. Remember the West supported Pol Pot in Cambodia and were against the Vietnamese going in to topple that brutal genocidal regime. Agreement among the ruling class. Change is constant...stability is simply a pause in history. Governments are like individuals, they always ask the question: What is in it for us. Altruism or high principals are way down the list. If justice was an issue funds would not be collected to allow brutal leaders to disappear to another country with stolen or contributed gains. Governments operate as businesses these days and therefore the ends justify the means. Look at Haiti, the government insisted all donations and contributed funds go through them and now that money has all disappeared and the people still have nothing. Armed revolution is sometimes the only alternative as other countries wring their hands of such matters. Presidents and Prime Ministers seem to take Pontius Pilate as a role model as they preach Christian morality. Not much has changed in the 5,000 years of organized governance.

  • Comment number 16.

    There is an uprising taking place right before our eyes that may well succeed in the near future. No, it is not the uprising of the Syrian opposition I am refering to but the uprising in Afghanistan against the NATO/US occupation by the Afghani people. The recent slayings of families by a beserk American soldier and the Koran burning riots are the results of increasingly bad relations between occupation forces and Afghans. Gideon Rachman, the FT columnist on foreign affairs, has concluded that "the West has lost in Afghanistan" in the FT of March 27 based on good evidence of the deteriorating occupation. He bases this on the desperate changes in relations between the occupation forces and their chief enemy the Taliban. "Five years ago the Americans were refusing to speak to the Taliban. Now the Taliban are refusing to speak to the Americans. That is a measure of how the balance of power has shifted in Afghanistan. The western intervention there has failed. As Nato prepares to withdraw from the country in 2014, it is only the scale of the defeat that remains to be determined." Rachman goes on, "But in a desperate effort to leave behind a stable Afghanistan, the US and its allies are also battling to include the Taliban in the political process. However, the Taliban are in no rush to negotiate - and recently broke off talks. With western troops on their way out, there is little pressure on them to compromise now." Ironically, "allthough it was the presence of al-Qaeda that led Nato into Afghanistan, the dreadful nature of the Taliban regime gave the fight an extra moral dimension. Visiting western politicians were always eager to visit a newly opened girls' school - and to stress the progress for women's rights."

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