More Stan Fun tonight
with Rob.
"The north Caspian coast is a highly fragile environment, with miles of reed beds and wetlands and marshes. In fact the Caspian is a Sea in name only, its actually a huge lake, which became separated from the oceans in pre-historic times. Agip KCO the drilling operator has a policy of zero emissions to the water but environmentalists say the lake is just too delicate and drilling should stop immediately. The day I visited, hundreds of seals washed-up dead in another sector of the Caspian. An investigation is underway, with some environmental groups claiming a release of deadly hydrogerbn Sulphide gas may have been responsible, something the oil company's say they seriously doubt. "
"PM Contributer Asiel, her name means sweet honey. She is hoping for work and future prosperity due to the oil rush. She says oil and gas has put Kazakhstan on the map, now everyone knows about her country. In the background you can see one of the newly built Hotels part of the building boom which has tranformed parts of the oil city of Atyrau. The River Ural in the background is the boundary between Europe and Asia but in the battle for energy resources there are three key players Russia, China and the wider west. Kazakhs dislike references to the "great game" being played out for geostrategic influence in their region, but the west is hoping Kazakhstan can help solve the energy security problem if it can find export routes fully independent of Russia. For their part the Kazakhs are performing a careful balancing act, between the Russian Bear, the Chines Dragon and the energy-hungry west. "
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All these Stans? Have you been going to 'Stans-R-Us', Eddie?
'Energy-hungry West'.
Hmm, no denying that, but the real player in world energy markets is China, whose need is rising with enormous speed.
Why do you think that they are cultivating unsavoury partners in Iran and the Ogaden, amongst others? It wants to secure supply of oil from regions which the West has a problem with, to feed the fires of its industry. It will exceed the USA as the worlds largest polluter either this year or next. This was forecast to take place in 2020, according to a study only three years ago.
Kazakhstan has a common border with China. It will not be a problem for the Chinese to build a pipeline of whatever length is required, since there is no effective opposition to their regime and ecological concerns don't figure at all in their thinking.
Russia would make strenuous noises about any new pipeline to the West, which bypasses its territory and deprives Putin's placemen of their transport revenues through Russian pipelines. They will be much less likely to complain about a Chinese pipeline, China is becoming too powerful for Russia to deal with.
The Chinese may not do anything overt before the Olympics next year, they won't want to spoil their own party. But it wouldn't surprise me if things start moving after that and the Chinese tie up a deal with the Kazhaks.
The Chinese are astute. They have seen how trying to match the spending power of the West brought about the end of the Cold War in the West. The Warsaw Pact countries could not match the power of the dollar without entirely destroying their economies and causing revolt. One way or another the Cold War had to end with the fall of Communism in the West, either by internal revolt or economic collapse.
And now Chinese industry is expanding faster than at any time in its history. They are the main supporter of the US economy, through their holdings of US Government debt. Their buying of US Gilts has supported the spending of the West for a decade. They are moving into a position where their economy will eclipse the output of the West. Co-incidentally they have the power to either hold the US to ransom or destroy its economy by liquidating their holdings of the US national debt. Thus enabling them to supplant the USA as the worlds superpower.
How odd that a notionally-Communist country should be using the tools of Capitalism to overhaul the West in global dominance.
Si.
Rob's report (above) highlights the delicate balancing act that is now taking place between the perceived 'needs' of developing and developed countries and the impact of those needs upon the environment. And all this is, of course, complicated by the international power which resource-rich nations can then assume - and, if they so chose, abuse.
To my mind, this makes it all the more important that resources are put into alternative energy sources, reducing energy consumption, and other means of making each country as self-sufficient as possible in terms of the energy they consume. Environmental considerations, of course, should always to be taken into account when solutions are proposed.
Si - I am, as always, humbled by your sturdy grasp of such a wide range of topics. I clearly need to read more, listen more and spend less time on frivolous things, although even then, I'm not sure I'd be able to keep up with you.
For my part, I'm glad Rob's been out talking to the Kazakh people - it's all too easy to think of places like this as a "nation" that can provide things for us, without stopping to think about the people who live there and who will, inevitably, be affected by social and economic changes.
芒鈧锄锄锄芒鈧.锄锄锄锄芒鈧
Interesting analysis, as ever, Si. I'd be interested to know what you think China might do with its power in future. Its economic growth is truly astounding, yet it still leaves huge swathes of its population, mainly in rural areas, in absolute poverty. Will it use its wealth to bring economic development to these areas, or will it expand outwards, swallowing the industries of the west? And is it sustainable? Will China's apparent disregard for the environment, and the resulting pollution, ill-health and degradation of natural resources eventually slow or reverse its growth?
On less serious matters, did anyone see the photo in G2 of Steve Rosenburg interviewing a German MP from a box.
[Hope that works. I've never tried an html link in here before, and am following Big Sis's instructions from the Refuge so please blame/credit her as appropriate.]
Poor bloke. At least that's one humiliation Eddie and his radio colleagues are spared.
Rob's report (above) highlights the delicate balancing act that is now taking place between the perceived 'needs' of developing and developed countries and the impact of those needs upon the environment. And all this is, of course, complicated by the international power which resource-rich nations can then assume - and, if they so chose, abuse.
To my mind, this makes it all the more important that resources are put into alternative energy sources, reducing energy consumption, and other means of making each country as self-sufficient as possible in terms of the energy they consume. Environmental considerations, of course, should always to be taken into account when solutions are proposed.
Now I know in the past I have mentioned the small Irish company called Steorn who claim that they have developed a "free energy" device. And - I suppose - not surprisingly, nobody took any notice. I know, I know, but it doesn't really matter what you think of their claim, it still all adds up to an interesting story. Anyway, today whilst just keeping an eye on the latest developments, I came across this: . Anybody ever come across it or know anything about it? Now that might have an impact on our "energy hunger".
Oh, cool! I was just reading more about that air car and discovered that its body can be made out of fibre-glass or hemp. So if you run out of air, you can smoke it.
Great Blog.
Re Si's analysis,
Omitted to note that one reason Afghanistan needed 'stabilisation' was because negotiations for a pipeline route with the Taliban (which were well underway) fell through and they needed demonising. This is fact,not conspiracy theory.
Secondly, China is truly on track to pass the USA as the world's biggest polluter this year, but with more than four times as many folk, and thus one quarter the percapita footprint, and probably less than half of our own. They are at present making quite a bit of aggressively protective environmental law.
It remains to be seen if they enforce their protective legislation any better than we do.
Without Afghanistan AND EITHER Iran OR Pakistan, there can be no pipeline to the sea.
will be our downfall. Has anyone been listening to the Reith Lectures? Well worth the effort.
xx
ed
Ed, I suspect it's an academic sort of thing to say, but I can't help thinking that you blur the "thing" and the "cost". Is it inherently bad that I should eat mangetout in January or is it a problem that for me to do so, it has to be flown half-way round the world? I'd have thought it was the latter. The distinction is important because, at some point, there is a notion of "acceptable cost". Once you are able to establish that, then the challenge is to deliver (the product, behaviour, whatever) within that cost. If you just say that the "thing at today's cost" is unacceptable or "bad" then I'm not sure it's very helpful.
That said, I expect that whole set-up will "proper break" before anybody tries to fix it. The idea of paying a tenner a gallon for petrol when it's currently 92p a litre seems like a personal affront. Paying a tenner a gallon after an extended period of not being able to buy petrol at all will probably seem OK.
Ed;
Not omitted. Not even considered the onward route of the pipeline. Even more reasons for the Kazhaks to take the easy option and send a pipeline over the Chinese border. The political and financial costs will be far less that way.
Taliban were demonised because they were hosting Osama and his buddies, who initiated the 9/11 strikes. And surely any regime which tramples on human rights and the human equality of it's own people won't be missed? Females of all ages were terribly repressed under the Taliban. Theirs is a new freedom to be educated and play a full part in their nation. Surely a good thing? You seem to nurture some admiration for their regime?
A conspiracy theorist would suggest that Al-Qaeda, having been initiated and armed by CIA money to counter the USSR in Afghanistan, was used by the USA to destroy the heart of lower Manhattan in order to bring the West fully behind the USA push for global hegemony.
Or that Zionist money was behind the whole thing, to give a pretext for eliminating Islam from the face of the planet. Preposterous.
I know which I believe. I'd rather see the Taliban consigned to history and a democratic Government in Kabul than the alternative. I am, however, disturbed by the extent of Warlord influence (and therefore drug money influence)over the Kabul Government.
Who's counting numbers of people? The raw fact is that China is about to become the world's biggest polluter. As an enviro-type that simple fact should horrify you. It's not an excuse to say that we should carry on as we are either. We are not absolved of guilt.
But our pollution was initiated when these things were not clearly understood, during the Industrial Revolution. Awareness of it has only seeped into general knowledge within the last 10 - 20 years. The position of the Chinese has become what it currently almost entirely within that same period when we knew and understood about these things. Yet they continue on regardless.
As in the USA, the Chinese will do nothing because it will threaten their growing economy and job creation. And the USA won't join in because the growth of China threatens their jobs and economy. Seen in that light it may well be true to say that the levels of Chinese growth over the last decade or so are the reason why the USA wouldn't sign up to Kyoto. Each fears the other to the extent that no deals are possible.
Even if Afghanistan is democratised Iran will not be an option and Pakistan is too unstable to run a pipeline through. So where are the available routes? Kind of knocks the idea of 'Pipelineistan' on the head, doesn't it?
I'm still amazed by your ability to conflate entirely separate and distinct issues into a synthesised but discordant whole. 'Pipelineistan' is, if you'll forgive me, a pipe dream. The Kazhaks won't wait for democracy to take route. They have oil, they want a buyer,China awaits. Iraq has nothing to do with any potential route. Ditto Korea and Palestine. How you manage to bring them all together in a single sentence, with the suggestion that they are linked baffles me.
Nobody listens to the Reith lectures. That's the point of them.
And John H. makes a very useful point. For so long as people want to buy or own something they will continue to do so. Until the perceived cost to them outweighs the wish to own or consume. That may be a cash cost, or it may be because the North Sea is now lapping at their door in Leeds, due to rising sea levels.
However much the eco-lobby may decry it the fact remains, people generally consider themselves first, the planet second.
Si.
John H (12),
Thanks for reading the link. You are right. You could grow Mangetout in a polytunnel made from petrochemicals with less ecological cost. It is the cost to which I object, but including the full ecological cost, which is not accounted in the cash cost (or price), but 'externalised' in neoclassical economics, which regards materials and their disposal as 'free gifts' from Nature. The cash cost only includes the cash cost of obtaining and delivering plus profit at every stage.
The ecological cost of our present behaviour is unacceptable (imo), and that's without allowing for the cost in lives and destroyed homes of 'securing' the fuel-bearing regions.
The piece was written in 2003 before the Iraq fiasco began, and I am not happy to have had my misgivings prove true IN SPADES!
Salaam/Shalom/Shanthi
ed
"All profit is Nature's Loss." -- Arne Naess
Maliciously premature, it seems!
Slightly off-topic but, Ed, did you decide on the identity of your mystery bird? You're absolutely right that it wasn't a siskin. I also thought a willow warbler, but given the time of the year, I also wondered if it might be a chiffchaff. However, if you've definitely identified ww song around you, then it's probably one of those. The legs did look quite dark, though...
Ed (14) - Please forgive my stereotypical townie (but genuine) questions. I'm interested to know what you think the way forward for the UK is? Surely we can't all live like you do? Some of us will have to live in towns, work in offices, shop in supermarkets etc.
Si (13) I disagree with your last point, hence my question to Ed. I think folk would happily consider the planet if they had a clearer information on the ecological cost of their choices.
From 'You Are Here' by Bremner, Bird & Fortune..
"In Turkmenistan, a loaf of bread and the month of April are named after the President's mother"
"The 'stans. a group of states that stand at the vital cross-roads on the old Silk Road running between Russia, China and western interests to the south..... Here we have a collection of less-than-democratic oil-rich dictatorships - not unlike Iraq...
But in contrast to the line taken with Saddam, America has been relatively lenient with the 'stans, largely due to those two great engines of US foreign policy oil and the War on Terror.
The 'stans may boast a quality selection of mad dictators but they're sitting on a lot of energy and they're well placed to provide bases for Uncle Sam. It's the old adage..location, location, location.
Faithful doggy (16),
One of them threw Uncle Sam out not long ago.
John H.
I think it's a ww. the song is everywhere, along with a lot I don't know. I was disappointed RSPB don't do a singing soft toy Magpie. If they did I'd make a larsen trap.
xx
ed
Si (13),
"And surely any regime which tramples on human rights and the human equality of it's own people won't be missed?" No more than I would miss Israel.
The Taliban were indeed demonised, but oil was a bigger reason than 911, which came along very conveniently, conspiracy or not, and provided the 'injured innocence' of the global hegemon.
I hope you're right about Iran not being an option, but the hegemon and best buddy have done some pretty stupid things lately. So it's gotta be Afghanistan and Pakistan as well as at least one of the central Stans.
Please listen to the Reith lectures and be ready to criticise.
Salaam, etc.
ed
Si Worrall wrote (@13)
'Nobody listens to the Reith lectures. That's the point of them.'
Sometimes I hear them by accident... :-)
The suggestion last night that perhaps *not* automatically regarding and treating China as an opponent might be a good idea seemed to me to be at least slightly sensible. We could start by not assuming as a known fact that they are Bad Guys in every possible way, dedicated to destroying their own people, us, and the entire planet.
I cannot help remembering that the best way to subject one鈥檚 own population and keep them from revolt against oppressive government is to present them with an external enemy to hate and fear. Orwell pointed it out in Nineteen Eighty-Four; failing despots try it on all the time (look at Mugabe and Evil Britain); communism has been being used by the West since McCarthy and before, call it coming up to a hundred years now.
We seem to me to be a bit too fundamentalist about 鈥渁nyone who doesn鈥檛 believe exactly what we do鈥. Sometimes I wonder how long it will take us to learn that this isn鈥檛 the best way to get along in reasonable harmony on what is beginning to feel like a very small planet.
As for the demonisation of the Taliban, that started before there was the slightest evidence either that they were harbouring Osama bin Laden or that Osama bin Laden had been behind the 9/11 outrage. There were people on the internet demanding that America should 'bomb Afghanistan back into the Stone Age' well before most of those people could have pointed out Afghanistan on a globe (most of them probably still couldn't). It was being assumed without evidence who was to blame; why could that possibly have been, I wonder, if not because they had already been selected as suitable scapegoats?
There is a company on the AIM called Max Petroleum. They are drilling solely in Kazakhstan. Their shares have doubled in value in the last 9 months. Market capitalisation of aprox 450 million UK pounds. I wonder how much goes to the Kazakh government and more importantaly Kazakh people.
Mods,
Is there a reason why my courteous and helpful reply to Charles doesn't appear, even after three postings?
Grrrr!
ed
I like the idea of a Chines Dragon. A secretive rarely-seen breed from the Isle of Wight.